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Geopolitics marked the beginning of the year in the financial markets. The resurgence of tensions, from Venezuela to Iran, and the diplomatic clash between the US and Europe over Greenland generated risk aversion and triggered a temporary spike in market volatility. 

The Spanish economy successfully navigated the trade and geopolitical tensions affecting the global environment in 2025, achieving growth of 2.8%. This figure clearly surpasses both our forecast at the start of year, which was 2.3%, and the euro area’s growth, which stood at 1.5%. This GDP growth was driven by the momentum of domestic demand, which offset the deterioration of external demand resulting from the surge in imports.

The government has presented a second action plan to cushion the economic impact of the current high inflation. According to government estimates, this second package will have a budget impact of more than 9 billion euros (0.7% of GDP), which includes 5.5 billion in new expenditure and 3.6 billion in reduced revenues due to cuts in electricity taxes.

The new Strategic Project for Economic Recovery and Transformation («PERTE» project) approved by the government in May could provide a boost to the Spanish automotive industry, one of the hardest hit by the current shortage of microchips, which are increasingly necessary for the production of electric vehicles.

The 12-month Euribor has rallied from –0.50% at the end of 2021 to over 1.0% in the second half of June, its highest level since early 2014. Why has it increased and what impact does this have on the economy? What can we expect over the coming months?

Q2 2025 began with all bets placed on a slowdown in the growth of the Spanish economy. In early April, and after months of threats, the Trump administration announced bilateral tariffs and catapulted the main uncertainty indicators to all-time highs. Weeks later, a blackout left the Iberian Peninsula without electricity for a day. Moreover, all this happened in an environment in which the euro area economy was once again showing signs of cooling.

Follow the evolution of the Spanish economy with our real-time indicators.

The international economy has returned from the summer with signs of resilience, less uncertainty, but more tariffs. There are indications of an improvement in European activity in Q3, signs of a less robust labour market in the United States, and divergent inflation between the two sides of the Atlantic.

In recent years, the discussion around critical commodities has emerged as a key element in the redefining of economic relations at a global level, in an environment marked by persistent geopolitical tensions. So-called critical minerals – such as rare earths, copper, or lithium – are key inputs for global industry and, specifically, for those sectors most closely linked to the green and digital transition. The demand for these commodities has grown sharply in recent years, as has the supply, driven by the largest global producers of many of these minerals, such as China, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

As we approach 2026, the global economy is once again demonstrating greater-than-expected resilience to uncertainty and geopolitical noise. However, growth and welfare will depend on how the division between economic blocs, the rise of artificial intelligence and fiscal challenges are managed, in a context of transition and increasing complexity.