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The global economy sustains the momentum, but pockets of instability persist. The US faces the impact of the longest shutdown in its history; the euro area holds up but lacks momentum, and China’s slowdown is accentuated at the end of the year.

In October, the main stock market indices reached all-time highs, the dollar appreciated, sovereign debt yields declined and euro area peripheral spreads narrowed. Commodities exhibited disparity between the rise in metals and the decline in crude oil prices. The central banks fulfilled expectations: the Fed cut rates and the ECB kept them unchanged.

The international economy has returned from the summer with signs of resilience, less uncertainty, but more tariffs. There are indications of an improvement in European activity in Q3, signs of a less robust labour market in the United States, and divergent inflation between the two sides of the Atlantic.