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Particularly noteworthy was the strong performance of the consumption indicators, especially car sales and air traffic, suggesting that tourism remains a major driver of economic activity. Moreover, the confidence indicators are showing a positive trend across all sectors, with the exception of construction.

The pace of growth of the Spanish economy has slowed, as evidenced by the lower GDP growth rate recorded in Q3. The main reason for this is the weakness of the external environment: the euro area has registered a slight decline in economic activity and its three main economies are stagnant. In contrast, the statistics for household consumption in Spain, one of the pillars of the economy, remain strong.

In this Focus we present the main conclusions of the Sectoral Observatory, a new publication by CaixaBank Research in which we offer a clear and detailed analysis of the evolution of the Spanish economy from the point of view of its sectors.

We break down the main measures included in the War Response Action Plan, which will mobilise up to 16 billion euros in order to mitigate the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Spanish economy.

Unlike the process of tracking the achievement of the milestones and targets laid out in the Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRPs), assessing where we are in their implementation becomes more complicated when we try to quantify their macroeconomic impact and their transformative capacity for the European economy. This is becoming more relevant given the challenges posed by the increasingly complex geopolitical scenario we face.

The resilience shown by the international economy at the aggregate level, which is quite remarkable given the significant geopolitical uncertainty and restrictive financial conditions dominating the scenario, reflects disparate dynamics among the various international economies, with each one seeking to make an orderly landing amidst their own challenges. The US is experiencing strong growth and is seeking to normalise towards more sustainable rates, while the euro area is showing signs of less apathetic growth and China maintains mixed dynamics between industry and domestic demand.

100 days after Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president and five weeks following the announcement of the tariff hikes, there is a feeling of tense calm in the economy and the financial markets, as we wait to see how the negotiations between the major trading blocs develop.

With an eye on the upcoming 2028-2034 EU budget, the European Semester is strengthening its role as a framework for identifying reform and investment needs. The priorities include achieving more tangible progress towards an effective integration of the Single Market, alongside strengthening the competitiveness agenda in strategic sectors and reconciling new spending needs with the European fiscal framework.

The pandemic has been felt in all sectors of the economy, particularly in tourism services, a key sector for the Spanish economy. Nevertheless, the foreign sector held up very well in the face of an unprecedented shock, and despite not having this traditional contribution the current account managed to maintain a surplus. The starting point for rebuilding a path of sustainable growth is better than one might have expected.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the noise caused by the geopolitical context and focus on the signal coming from macroeconomic data. The sense of vulnerability is heightened by the unpredictability surrounding the pace of change in the old international order.

The international economy has returned from the summer with signs of resilience, less uncertainty, but more tariffs. There are indications of an improvement in European activity in Q3, signs of a less robust labour market in the United States, and divergent inflation between the two sides of the Atlantic.

Sentiment improves in the US, but remains somewhat hesitant in the rest of the world, while the central banks make progress in the «gradual» monetary easing process.

The AIReF has ruled that the pension spending rule agreed with the European Commission has not been violated, although it has pointed out that complying with this rule does not guarantee the sustainability of the pension system or that of the general government as a whole. Moreover, it has warned that it will be necessary to increase government transfers to the Social Security system in order to sustain it between now and 2050.

Meeting climate targets depends heavily on public and private investment and their effects on the development of new technologies. Therefore, much of the economic momentum since COVID has focused on encouraging this ecological transition. In this article, we explore how the US government and, above all, the European Union and its Member States are incentivising it.

The conflict now widely referred to as the Third Gulf War has caused the largest disruption on record in the global energy market. The main point of tension is the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime route through which around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes. With the strait effectively closed, a large share of the region’s energy production is blocked. Energy markets reflected this scenario: the price of oil hovered around 100 dollars per barrel in the final weeks of March, driven by supply disruptions, attacks on tankers and damage to critical energy infrastructure.

In this article we analyse the role played by the US economy in our country’s trade relations: although it is an important trade partner, Spain’s exposure to the US is relatively low, although there are significant disparities between sectors. 

The conflict in the Middle East continues to drag on, although the global economy remains resilient. In the euro area, business climate surveys indicate a dynamic third quarter, although actual activity data dampen this optimism, particularly in Germany. Meanwhile, in the United States, inflation remains under upward pressure due to rising energy costs, while the labour market remains highly volatile.

In Spain, exports of goods to the US accounted for 4.9% of total exports in 2023 and 1.25% of GDP. As we have seen in the previous article, Spain’s exposure to the United States is relatively low overall, although there are significant disparities between sectors. The tariffs currently applied by the United States on Spanish exports vary considerably according to the product in question.