In this Focus we present the main conclusions of the Sectoral Observatory, a new publication by CaixaBank Research in which we offer a clear and detailed analysis of the evolution of the Spanish economy from the point of view of its sectors.
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Sentiment improves in the US, but remains somewhat hesitant in the rest of the world, while the central banks make progress in the «gradual» monetary easing process.
The conflict now widely referred to as the Third Gulf War has caused the largest disruption on record in the global energy market. The main point of tension is the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime route through which around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes. With the strait effectively closed, a large share of the region’s energy production is blocked. Energy markets reflected this scenario: the price of oil hovered around 100 dollars per barrel in the final weeks of March, driven by supply disruptions, attacks on tankers and damage to critical energy infrastructure.
In Spain, exports of goods to the US accounted for 4.9% of total exports in 2023 and 1.25% of GDP. As we have seen in the previous article, Spain’s exposure to the United States is relatively low overall, although there are significant disparities between sectors. The tariffs currently applied by the United States on Spanish exports vary considerably according to the product in question.
The AIReF has ruled that the pension spending rule agreed with the European Commission has not been violated, although it has pointed out that complying with this rule does not guarantee the sustainability of the pension system or that of the general government as a whole. Moreover, it has warned that it will be necessary to increase government transfers to the Social Security system in order to sustain it between now and 2050.
The international economy has returned from the summer with signs of resilience, less uncertainty, but more tariffs. There are indications of an improvement in European activity in Q3, signs of a less robust labour market in the United States, and divergent inflation between the two sides of the Atlantic.
Q2 2025 began with all bets placed on a slowdown in the growth of the Spanish economy. In early April, and after months of threats, the Trump administration announced bilateral tariffs and catapulted the main uncertainty indicators to all-time highs. Weeks later, a blackout left the Iberian Peninsula without electricity for a day. Moreover, all this happened in an environment in which the euro area economy was once again showing signs of cooling.
Meeting climate targets depends heavily on public and private investment and their effects on the development of new technologies. Therefore, much of the economic momentum since COVID has focused on encouraging this ecological transition. In this article, we explore how the US government and, above all, the European Union and its Member States are incentivising it.
The Spanish economy rides out the storm clouds in the closing stages of the year
Recent developments
Geopolitics marked the beginning of the year in the financial markets. The resurgence of tensions, from Venezuela to Iran, and the diplomatic clash between the US and Europe over Greenland generated risk aversion and triggered a temporary spike in market volatility.
Is belonging to the middle class an ambition? What is the quality of life of the middle class like? How has it evolved in recent decades? And how will it evolve in the future? Are middle-class people satisfied with their lives? All these questions are very important, but before addressing them, we must first answer the question, who is the middle class?
In the midst of the storm sparked by the pandemic, the real estate market has maintained a positive tone. Although the heightened uncertainty and the restrictions led to the postponement of home purchase decisions, prices decelerated only slightly and still rose by around 8% in 2020.
In this article we analyse the role played by the US economy in our country’s trade relations: although it is an important trade partner, Spain’s exposure to the US is relatively low, although there are significant disparities between sectors.
Why is productivity so low in Spain and why has it grown so little in recent years? Although the answer is complex and a whole range of factors are involved, two of the key causes of the Spanish economy’s low labour productivity, as well as the low growth thereof, are the country’s production specialisation and the small size of its companies.
Globofriction captures one of the most characteristic features of the current era: simultaneous attraction and repulsion between economic blocs. On the one hand, they are competing for technological leadership, aware that the associated benefits go far beyond those currently gained by the companies leading innovation. Historically, countries that have led an economic revolution have ended up consolidating themselves as global powers in the following decades. On the other hand, economic blocs remain deeply intertwined by trade and financial interdependencies. This is the force of globalisation, the benefits of which are well known and remain very present.
Pending an assessment of the impact that the storm which hit Eastern Spain at the end of October may have had on agricultural production in the region, over the coming quarters we expect the positive trend in the sector to gather strength. That said, it will remain highly conditional on how costs evolve, as well as on the easing of the drought.
We are therefore heading towards a context with higher tariffs and in which, most likely, there will be some reconfiguration of global value chains in an attempt to compensate, insofar as possible, for the loss of attractiveness of the US market. Consequently, we are moving towards a world with greater fragmentation, lower economic growth and the risk of higher inflation.