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More than three months into the conflict in the Middle East, the effects of the supply shock triggered by the surge in energy prices will now become increasingly evident in the inflation and growth data. The combination of uncertainty and resilience that has characterised the recent behaviour of the global economy makes for a fragile balance, especially with geopolitical risk remaining so high.

The conflict now widely referred to as the Third Gulf War has caused the largest disruption on record in the global energy market. The main point of tension is the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime route through which around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes. With the strait effectively closed, a large share of the region’s energy production is blocked. Energy markets reflected this scenario: the price of oil hovered around 100 dollars per barrel in the final weeks of March, driven by supply disruptions, attacks on tankers and damage to critical energy infrastructure.

Pending an assessment of the impact that the storm which hit Eastern Spain at the end of October may have had on agricultural production in the region, over the coming quarters we expect the positive trend in the sector to gather strength. That said, it will remain highly conditional on how costs evolve, as well as on the easing of the drought.

We are therefore heading towards a context with higher tariffs and in which, most likely, there will be some reconfiguration of global value chains in an attempt to compensate, insofar as possible, for the loss of attractiveness of the US market. Consequently, we are moving towards a world with greater fragmentation, lower economic growth and the risk of higher inflation.

The Spanish economy continues to show significant dynamism, with better performance than expected, driven by domestic demand (both private consumption and investment). Among other factors, this is thanks to the strong financial situation of both households and firms, favourable financing conditions, the normalisation of inflation and the strength of the labour market.

Q2 2025 began with all bets placed on a slowdown in the growth of the Spanish economy. In early April, and after months of threats, the Trump administration announced bilateral tariffs and catapulted the main uncertainty indicators to all-time highs. Weeks later, a blackout left the Iberian Peninsula without electricity for a day. Moreover, all this happened in an environment in which the euro area economy was once again showing signs of cooling.

In the midst of the storm sparked by the pandemic, the real estate market has maintained a positive tone. Although the heightened uncertainty and the restrictions led to the postponement of home purchase decisions, prices decelerated only slightly and still rose by around 8% in 2020.

Risk appetite recovers, following the spike in volatility at the beginning of April. However, the divergence between the central banks’ strategies is accentuated. Meanwhile, sovereign yields return, broadly speaking, to the levels of March and the stock markets recover some of the lost ground. Although the dollar is stabilising, it remains weak, and energy prices suffer due to the global uncertainty.

The figures for US GDP in Q1 reveal a contrast between the strength of domestic demand and trade flows that were anticipating the introduction of tariffs, while the euro area has shown accelerated growth. However, this boost could soon run out of steam: the tariffs and their consequences will begin to have a negative impact. For now, there are no clear signs of a slowdown in trade flows, but with uncertainty at peak levels, the global economy is expected to enter into a slowdown, with more risks to the downside and more questions than answers.

The international economy has returned from the summer with signs of resilience, less uncertainty, but more tariffs. There are indications of an improvement in European activity in Q3, signs of a less robust labour market in the United States, and divergent inflation between the two sides of the Atlantic.

The saving capacity of households is being reduced due to the rise in inflation. Nevertheless, the level of savings in 2021 was still high.

One of the big questions of the moment is whether the current rise in prices will spread to wages. To answer it, we analyse current wage dynamics in the euro area and what path they might follow in the future.

In this article we analyse the role played by the US economy in our country’s trade relations: although it is an important trade partner, Spain’s exposure to the US is relatively low, although there are significant disparities between sectors. 

Meeting climate targets depends heavily on public and private investment and their effects on the development of new technologies. Therefore, much of the economic momentum since COVID has focused on encouraging this ecological transition. In this article, we explore how the US government and, above all, the European Union and its Member States are incentivising it.

Why is productivity so low in Spain and why has it grown so little in recent years? Although the answer is complex and a whole range of factors are involved, two of the key causes of the Spanish economy’s low labour productivity, as well as the low growth thereof, are the country’s production specialisation and the small size of its companies.

The recovery of economic activity in the area is proving to be uneven: while spending by residents has quickly normalised, commercial activity is progressing at a slower pace, with a significant number of business establishments still inactive. In addition, the impact has varied widely depending on the municipality, the level of household income and the size of the business in question.