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We are therefore heading towards a context with higher tariffs and in which, most likely, there will be some reconfiguration of global value chains in an attempt to compensate, insofar as possible, for the loss of attractiveness of the US market. Consequently, we are moving towards a world with greater fragmentation, lower economic growth and the risk of higher inflation.

In this article we investigate how the ups and downs of our main trading partners’ economies can affect the Spanish economy through the trade channel. To this end, we developed a synthetic indicator that summarises the foreign demand for Spanish goods and services, and below we assess its predictive capacity and analyse the expected trends in the short and medium term.

The AIReF has ruled that the pension spending rule agreed with the European Commission has not been violated, although it has pointed out that complying with this rule does not guarantee the sustainability of the pension system or that of the general government as a whole. Moreover, it has warned that it will be necessary to increase government transfers to the Social Security system in order to sustain it between now and 2050.

In the midst of the storm sparked by the pandemic, the real estate market has maintained a positive tone. Although the heightened uncertainty and the restrictions led to the postponement of home purchase decisions, prices decelerated only slightly and still rose by around 8% in 2020.

Globofriction captures one of the most characteristic features of the current era: simultaneous attraction and repulsion between economic blocs. On the one hand, they are competing for technological leadership, aware that the associated benefits go far beyond those currently gained by the companies leading innovation. Historically, countries that have led an economic revolution have ended up consolidating themselves as global powers in the following decades. On the other hand, economic blocs remain deeply intertwined by trade and financial interdependencies. This is the force of globalisation, the benefits of which are well known and remain very present.

Social cohesion, together with the ecological and digital pillars, constitute the key spheres of action of the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (RTRP). This is a plan which outlines the roadmap for a robust, inclusive and resilient economic recovery, not only to tackle the crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic but also to respond to the challenges of the next decade.

The figures for US GDP in Q1 reveal a contrast between the strength of domestic demand and trade flows that were anticipating the introduction of tariffs, while the euro area has shown accelerated growth. However, this boost could soon run out of steam: the tariffs and their consequences will begin to have a negative impact. For now, there are no clear signs of a slowdown in trade flows, but with uncertainty at peak levels, the global economy is expected to enter into a slowdown, with more risks to the downside and more questions than answers.

The international economy has returned from the summer with signs of resilience, less uncertainty, but more tariffs. There are indications of an improvement in European activity in Q3, signs of a less robust labour market in the United States, and divergent inflation between the two sides of the Atlantic.

Pending an assessment of the impact that the storm which hit Eastern Spain at the end of October may have had on agricultural production in the region, over the coming quarters we expect the positive trend in the sector to gather strength. That said, it will remain highly conditional on how costs evolve, as well as on the easing of the drought.

The saving capacity of households is being reduced due to the rise in inflation. Nevertheless, the level of savings in 2021 was still high.

The current state of Spain’s real estate market is characterised, broadly speaking, by the strength of demand and the scarcity of supply. As a result of this mismatch between supply and demand, home prices have accelerated, especially in the case of new-builds. Here at CaixaBank Research we already predicted that the upward trend in the real estate market would take hold in 2024, but the published data have proved to be more bullish than expected, and this, together with the improvement in the economic outlook, has led us to revise upwards our real estate sector forecasts for 2024-2025.

One of the big questions of the moment is whether the current rise in prices will spread to wages. To answer it, we analyse current wage dynamics in the euro area and what path they might follow in the future.

Why is productivity so low in Spain and why has it grown so little in recent years? Although the answer is complex and a whole range of factors are involved, two of the key causes of the Spanish economy’s low labour productivity, as well as the low growth thereof, are the country’s production specialisation and the small size of its companies.

The recovery of economic activity in the area is proving to be uneven: while spending by residents has quickly normalised, commercial activity is progressing at a slower pace, with a significant number of business establishments still inactive. In addition, the impact has varied widely depending on the municipality, the level of household income and the size of the business in question.

The American political philosopher John Rawls coined the concept of the «veil of ignorance». Under this somewhat cryptic expression lies a suggestive notion: in order to determine which society is the best one to live in, we must ask ourselves: «if I did not know what position I would have in this society, in what kind of society would I choose to live in at birth?»