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The global economy sustains the momentum, but pockets of instability persist. The US faces the impact of the longest shutdown in its history; the euro area holds up but lacks momentum, and China’s slowdown is accentuated at the end of the year.

In this fourth and last article of the Dossier “Solidarity in Spain: snapshot of a committed society”, we analyse, in collaboration with Pompeu Fabra University, the change in the aggregate volume and in the number of donations that were made after the floods in Valencia based on CaixaBank banking transactions in order to better understand the charitable response to this emergency. 

Having overcome the crisis triggered by the pandemic, which caused debt-to-GDP levels to skyrocket, debt ratios have now resumed the downward trajectory they were on prior to COVID. In particular, in the private sector, both businesses and households already have lower levels of debt than before the pandemic and much lower than they had during the financial crisis of 2008. All this, together with the greater weight of fixed-rate debt, puts them in a less vulnerable position to cope with the rise in interest rates.

The first cohort of baby boomers turns 65 in 2023 and in the coming years this entire generation will retire en masse. In this article, we will assess the state in which the baby boom generation is approaching retirement in Spain, both from a financial perspective and in terms of their emotional state and their health.

We analyse the changes that have occurred in the flow of departures from the Spanish labour market in recent years, and the effect of the entry into force of the latest labour reform.

We explore some of the pension reforms implemented in other countries which, according to the economic literature and various international organisations, have best managed to navigate the uncertainty involved in ensuring the sustainability of the pension system.

The good growth data for the Spanish economy in the final stretch of 2024 lead us to revise upwards our GDP growth forecast for 2025. However, the greater likelihood of tariff tensions between the US and the EU invites us to remain cautious. In this regard, we expect the economy to grow by 2.5% in 2025, above the 2.3% we were previously predicting, albeit somewhat below the revision we could have made in the absence of this uncertainty factor.

The ageing of the population will have a major impact on the public finances of advanced economies. The mechanism is well known: the ageing of the population and the consequent increase in dependency ratios can reduce tax revenues and increase public spending substantially. The main message of this article is that demographics will exert intense upward pressure on the public finances in Spain and Europe.

The interaction of the dynamics (and imbalances) that had been at play since the outbreak of the pandemic, with the new reality in the face of heightened geopolitical instability and rising rates, comprise a new and challenging scenario in which households, businesses and governments alike will need to adapt their decisions.

We analyse the post-pandemic recovery of tourism from one of the Portuguese economy’s star source markets: the US.

Between the 2nd and 5th of August, the financial markets experienced their most turbulent sessions in years, triggered by hasty fears of a US recession and an unexpected decision by the Bank of Japan that caused a spike in volatility. Since then the markets have turned a page, rendering those declines of early August no more than a scare and restating the soft-landing scenario as being the most likely.

The partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the recent agreement signed between the US and Iran has significantly eased tensions in the energy markets, reducing the pressure that has been building on the economy and dispelling the spectre of a slowdown.

Improving the visibility of the economy’s performance in the short term remains fraught with significant challenges in the medium term, in an environment in which we will see major transformations in the coming years.

The Spanish economy is growing at a good pace – more so than expected – and this leads us here at CaixaBank Research to revise our growth forecasts for 2025 upwards from 2.3% to 2.5%. Despite the good news, the focus is not on the improvement in the forecasts, but rather on the uncertainty that surrounds them. 

We assess the situation of risk premia in the euro area periphery and the tools available to the ECB (flexible reinvestments under the PEPP and TPI) to curb their rise.

The euro area reached the ECB’s inflation target in 2025. Headline inflation fell to 2.1% for the year as a whole and closed at 1.9% in December, while most agents’ expectations also place it at 2% in the medium term. How has this final disinflation towards the 2% target played out? Which products and countries have contributed the most? What inertia remains?

The new Strategic Project for Economic Recovery and Transformation («PERTE» project) approved by the government in May could provide a boost to the Spanish automotive industry, one of the hardest hit by the current shortage of microchips, which are increasingly necessary for the production of electric vehicles.