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The most visible and immediate effect of the conflict has been on inflation, while the labour market shows a slower response to the shocks. The only area where the conflict has had a positive impact from a macroeconomic perspective is the tourism sector.

There is increasing pressure on the ECB to start raising interest rates, something that has not happened since 2011. However, in the current context of an economic slowdown with a multitude of downside risks, is it desirable for the ECB to begin to normalise its monetary policy in the coming months? Would it be better to wait for economic growth to recover?

Economic activity thus faces an outlook with higher energy prices, higher interest rates and higher inflation. At the same time, financial conditions as a whole are less restrictive than they might appear, thanks to the counterbalance provided by the strong performance of stock markets so far this year and the relative stability of exchange rates, while the AI-related investment boom is helping to offset the burden of the conflict in the Middle East.

The Portuguese economy demonstrated greater dynamism than initially estimated following the upward revision of the historical GDP series, which raised the growth recorded in the first two quarters of 2026. Moreover, the available indicators suggest that activity has shown strong momentum in the third quarter. In parallel, inflation rose in September, while the growth in house prices continued to moderate. Finally, Portugal continued to record a strong external position, with an external lending capacity equivalent to 2.3% of GDP at the end of the second quarter.

The deluge of bad omens that is ravaging the difficult context we have been living through of late conceals a much more hopeful reality: the strength of the Spanish labour market. Its recent evolution continues to offer surprises, and in a good way. It is worth highlighting.

We look at the cooling of the global manufacturing sector at a time marked by the convergence of various factors: the aftermath of the pandemic, the pull effect of China and the repercussions of the energy crisis for European industry.

It has been almost four months since our last update to the macroeconomic scenario. During these months, the Spanish economy has shown a more resilient tone than expected. Furthermore, the normalisation of gas prices, although incomplete, has been confirmed and the peak in reference interest rates is now in sight. Faced with all these changes, we have updated our macro forecast scenario.

After a much better-than-expected start to the year, the strength of the global economy will be tested once again in the coming months. The flexibility and coordination of economic policy in the face of these new challenges will determine the capacity of the current business cycle to overcome them.

Although the savings rate in the US today is well below pre-pandemic levels, the savings accumulated during 2020 and 2021 due to the mobility restrictions and fiscal stimulus measures could continue to favour consumption in the remainder of 2022 and in 2023.

In this article, we delve into the figures of the tourism sector in order to paint a more detailed picture of its recovery trajectory, which identifies the major trends and provides clues as to what we can expect for the remainder of the year.

The US interest rates have risen steadily and significantly, galvanised by the Federal Reserve’s rapid and aggressive monetary tightening policies. However, this does not necessarily mean that US bonds are more attractive than their European counterparts. A key factor in the comparison is the exchange rate.

In the midst of the low season for much of the sector, the figures published month by month continue to confirm strong demand despite the challenging economic environment that is affecting the global economy, particularly the European one. Will this dynamic continue in the coming months?

We analyse the stress in the labour market of the largest economy in the world: are there more companies wanting to hire or fewer workers? Most importantly, how can job supply and demand be rebalanced?

Between the end of September and the end of February, the US dollar depreciated by 6% in effective nominal terms and by 10% against the euro, trading at close to 1.07, a level not seen for almost a year. We explore what lies behind this change of trend and whether it is likely to continue.

We delve into the REPowerEU plan, approved in May by the European Commission, and its measures to accelerate the energy transition envisaged in the Green Deal and the Fit for 55 package.

With inflation rates above 8% in the last six months, the Fed has embarked on an accelerated cycle of interest rate hikes. Prices began to rise in early 2021, and while for a few months most analysts were anticipating a transitory rebound as a result of the reopening of the economy in the wake of the pandemic, the fact is that the persistent rise in prices caught us all by surprise. In this Focus we analyse the pattern in the various inflation measures and their short-term outlook.

The measures imposed in Europe to contain the COVID-19 have led to a marked increase in the savings of European households. Will European households spend these forced savings when the restrictions are lifted? At what speed? How will this impact economic growth?

There is a broad consensus on the need to reform European fiscal rules, which are too complex, unpredictable and insufficiently sensitive to the state of the business cycle. The COVID-19 crisis has forced their suspension and the Commission is debating their reform.

One of the sectors hardest hit by the restrictions on people's movement has been retail trade. However, internet sales are helping many businesses to cushion the impact of the crisis. This article examines the trend in online purchases in relation to face-to-face sales paid for by card via CaixaBank point-of-sale terminals.