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Using anonymised and aggregated data from card payments made via CaixaBank point of sale terminals, we analysed whether there were any changes in tourist spending and found that the hottest areas of the country experienced slower growth in tourist expenditure between the high seasons of 2019 and 2023. We also found changes as well as changes in the pattern of expenditure during heat waves. 

Extreme drought and rising costs have created a perfect storm that has nonetheless failed to dampen the high spirits of Spain’s agrifood exports in recent years. The decline in the volume of exports experienced by the sector, offset by the increase in prices, is the result of an adverse situation but the various competitiveness indicators look resilient and global market shares are still behaving very favourably. Even so, the sector must continue to invest in order to ensure its production becomes even more digitised, sustainable and competitive, a mission of vital importance given the huge challenge posed by climate change for the country.

After a year in which demand for housing exceeded all expectations, in 2023 we predict that the number of sales will adjust significantly, mainly due to the impact of higher interest rates. House prices, which tend to respond rather slowly to any fall in demand, will slow markedly although we expect them to maintain a slightly positive growth rate in 2023 (albeit adjusting in real terms due to high inflation). The supply of housing, which is insufficient to meet structural demand due to the creation of new households, will remain very limited as a result of the economic slowdown, high construction costs and waning demand.

Population growth has been one of the main factors that has driven the demand for housing in Spain in recent quarters and has played a fundamental role in sustaining home prices in a context of tightening financing conditions. In this article, we analyse the relationship between population growth and the evolution of home prices in the last two years. Population flows have been concentrated in large urban areas and tourist areas, and have caused a wide dispersion in the growth of home prices between the most buoyant areas of the country and those suffering depopulation.

The distribution of consumer spending over the month, a key question for understanding consumer behaviour, has not yet been studied in the depth it deserves because of the scarcity of high-frequency public data. How do consumers allocate their spending week by week? How much more do they spend at the beginning of the month, which is when most people are paid? Do we consume with the same intensity regardless of our age or our income? Thanks to the use of CaixaBank’s internal data on a daily frequence, we are able to carefully analyse the time patterns of consumption and answer these questions.

Between 2020 and 2022, around 420,000 new households were created in Spain. During the same period, the number of new homes started barely reached 300,000, the lowest level since 1990 except during the financial crisis that began in 2008. This supply of housing, which is insufficient in relation to the demographic situation, is more pronounced in those municipalities whose populations are growing the most, such as large cities, the islands and the Mediterranean coastline. According to population projections by the National Statistics Institute, about 217,000 new households will be created per year over the next five years (2023-2027), representing significant demographic pressure and with important implications for the housing market.

One of the consequences of the COVID-19 health crisis has been the increased awareness of the population and, by extension, that of politicians regarding the need to include sustainability criteria in economic policies in order to promote a more sustainable and resilient reactivation of the economy. The tourism industry is no stranger to these trends; firstly, because its business can be adversely affected by the consequences of climate change and, secondly, because there is ample scope for the industry to become more sustainable. This article attempts to determine what we understand by sustainability in the tourism sector, how it can be measured, the current situation of Spain’s tourism industry and where it is heading.

The real estate market is one of the main channels through which monetary policy is passed on to the real economy. Tighter financial conditions are feeding through to mortgage interest rates and are cooling down the demand for housing. Given the notable tightening of monetary policy over the past year in many of the advanced economies, in this article we document the change in trend in international real estate markets and analyse the extent of the adjustment that may lie ahead.

The olive oil industry is a deeply-rooted, traditional sector in Spain, is one of the most important in the country’s agricultural sector and plays a fundamental role from an economic, environmental, cultural and gastronomic point of view. In addition to being a source of income and employment in many rural areas, it also contributes towards territorial and social cohesion and the fight against depopulation, soil erosion and climate change.

Agrifood exports have continued to perform very well during the pandemic within a context where international trade has been particularly hard hit by the crisis. Swine meat, fruit and some fresh vegetables have been in greatest demand, while the Basque Country and especially Aragon have been the regions posting the largest growth in exports between January and July 2020. Despite this favourable performance to date, however, the sector is keeping a close eye on developments in global trade tensions, especially between the US and EU and the Brexit negotiations.

The Spanish real estate market accelerated in 2024, especially in the second half of the year, largely thanks to the fall in interest rates. This was added to a series of factors that are keeping housing demand very dynamic, including significant migration flows, rapid job creation and strong foreign demand. On the other hand, the supply of new housing is beginning to awaken, but it remains insufficient to address the high demand. This mismatch between strong demand and scarce supply is driving up house prices – a trend that we expect to continue in 2025.

Spain’s agrifood sector continues to show significant strength and has consolidated its role as the country’s leading driver of exports, thanks to an environment with contained price increases and a recovery in demand. Spain has become the EU’s fourth biggest exporting power and the eighth in the world, with a 3.4% share of the global market. In addition, it has recorded almost three decades of trade surpluses, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP in 2024. Despite the complex international environment, marked by geopolitical tensions and protectionism, the growth of agrifood exports in the first half of 2025, both in volume and in value, hints at a good year for the sector.

Climate change represents a key challenge for the real estate sector and for the entire Spanish economy. In this article, we analyse the risks associated with extreme weather events and the transition risks which the sector must address, as well as the role of public policies.

According to estimates by CaixaBank Research, Spain has accumulated a housing deficit, now exceeding 730,000 units, as a result of rapid household formation and an insufficient response from new construction. In this article, we review the extent of this mismatch and its impact on recent patterns in house prices, which are showing increasing tension across much of the country. We also observe that the construction of new homes is not accelerating, precisely in the regions where the gap between supply and demand is most pronounced, exacerbating the imbalances and prolonging the pressure on prices. Finally, we examine the factors limiting the recovery of supply (from rising construction costs to regulatory restrictions and the lack of land designated for development, in addition to infrastructure issues) and we anticipate little improvement in the short term in the sector’s capacity to meet current housing needs.

The sectors most closely related to tourism are digitalising faster than the average for the Spanish economy but there is still a long way to go, especially when compared to other tourism industries in Europe. In the next few years, it will be crucial for Spain’s tourism industry to be able to remedy this situation by  means of a clear commitment to digitalisation, which will help to improve its long-term growth capacity. The European NGEU funds are an opportunity to revitalise investment in the digitalisation of tourism businesses after two very tough years for the industry.

The outlook for the Spanish economy and its sectors is positive. We expect to see a higher growth rate in sectors linked to the digital transition, such as ICT and professional services, as well as in sectors where the Spanish economy is highly competitive, such as the pharmaceutical and tourism sectors.