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In this article, we analyse the factors behind the recent evolution of Spain’s household savings rate and the outlook for 2026, in a context marked by the conflict in the Middle East, which could lead to higher inflation and potential interest rate hikes.

The 12-month Euribor has rallied from –0.50% at the end of 2021 to over 1.0% in the second half of June, its highest level since early 2014. Why has it increased and what impact does this have on the economy? What can we expect over the coming months?

According to the first estimate for Q1 2023, GDP growth gathered pace compared to the previous quarter, with a quarterly increase of 0.5% versus 0.4% in Q4 2022 (after being revised 2 percentage points upwards). In year-on-year terms, growth rose to 3.8%, versus 2.9% in the previous quarter.

Emerging countries have experienced a number of crises throughout the various cycles of monetary tightening in the US, enduring a very high economic and financial cost. What will be the consequences of the Fed’s rate hikes for their economies?

We are witnessing the first strikes of the transformation process in which the world economy is currently immersed and which will test everything from trade relations between the major economic blocs to the solidity of the institutions that have generated well-being in recent decades.

The Draghi report lays the foundations for re-industrialisation in Europe, combining sweeping actions with a menu of specific proposals for 10 strategic sectors.

The risk premium on Portuguese debt has fallen significantly in the last 18 months and has remained well below those of Italy and Spain. What explains this dynamic?

The tailwinds generated by the latest inflation data and strong labour markets coexist with a natural loss of cyclical momentum and, in particular, with an environment marked by high geopolitical risks. This combination of competing forces will determine the pace of growth over the coming quarters.

The government has presented its 2025 Annual Progress Report, which anticipates an improvement in the general government balance thanks to sustained economic growth, the end of the temporary tax cuts and the containment of expenditure. 

The balance of the European Competitiveness Compass in 2026 is positive in terms of orientation and debate, but limited in progress, with key decisions still pending and with an uncertain future in a more complex geopolitical environment.

Gross disposable income is growing well above household spending in Spain, with the consequent improvement in household finances. We explain this increase and explore where the savings are being allocated.

In Spain, households have begun to reduce the savings accumulated during the pandemic in order to sustain their consumption levels in an environment of high inflation. The fall in the savings rate has also been reflected in Spanish households’ financial assets.

One of the imbalances that has traditionally characterised the Spanish economy is its high levels of foreign debt, which is a source of vulnerability in the event of possible shocks in the financial markets and also jeopardises the sustainability of expansionary cycles.

This month, we have updated our forecast scenario for the Spanish economy. Although we now expect growth to be slightly lower than previously anticipated, the message remains broadly positive and there are several elements sustaining the Spanish economy’s dynamic growth.

The truce in the tariff tensions between Washington and Beijing ended up fuelling a renewed risk appetite in May. However, the optimism was gradually overshadowed as the month progressed by the predictable fiscal deterioration in the US and other developed economies, as well as by the persistent volatility in Trump’s trade policy.

Undoubtedly, the negotiation of the next budget will once again test the health of the European project, on which our strategic autonomy needed to address the geopolitical challenges that will continue to come from abroad will depend.

Prolonging working life, boosting productivity and attracting more immigration are three of the levers proposed by economists to mitigate the impact of ageing on public finances in general and, in particular, on pension spending.

Despite the efforts made in recent years to reduce energy intensity in Europe and boost the role of renewables as alternative energy sources, the region remains sensitive to shifts in international energy prices. The current situation represents a new challenge, but also a new opportunity to accelerate the transition towards a sustainable and secure energy model.

In March, the bombings exchanged between Iran and the US and Israel caused significant stress in energy commodities; Brent crude oil fluctuated around 100 dollars per barrel throughout the month, while TTF gas did so between 50 and 60 euros per MWh. This points to a rebound of inflation and has led the markets to price in rate hikes at the ECB’s forthcoming meetings.

In April, the Portuguese government presented its Draft General Government Budget for 2022, following the formation of the new government after the early elections held in January, in which the Socialist Party obtained an absolute majority in parliament.