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We measure how intensely and for how long the rise in agricultural commodity prices is spreading throughout the food chain: from international agricultural prices, to the prices received by farmers in Spain and, finally, to consumer prices.

In 2024, all sectors of the Spanish economy have recorded growth, with only a few exceptions. In addition, the number of sectors in a situation of weakness has steadily declined, while that of sectors in expansion has increased. The outlook for 2025 is equally promising, although a slight moderation is anticipated in some cases.

Despite being the world’s largest consumer of commodities, China lacks certain essential materials and relies heavily on imports, especially of oil, natural gas, copper, aluminium and nickel. To address this dependency, the country has implemented a long-term strategy that includes the stockpiling of strategic reserves, which could affect global commodity prices.

Despite the reduction of the public deficit to around 2.8% of GDP, the Treasury’s funding needs remain high, with a projected net issuance of 60 billion euros. It will also have to deal with the end of reinvestments by the ECB and the impact of interest rates on public debt.

The beginning of 2025, with a month of January marked by contrasts, exemplifies how political and geo-economic risks can continue to steer the market.

The umpteenth change in the economic narrative in recent months – this time going from soft landing to no landing – appears to work in favour of the central banks’ intention to stay on the current course, to continue to raise rates and, once the peak is reached, to remain in restrictive territory for longer than previously expected.

We are witnessing an acceleration of the reconfiguration of the world economic order that was already underway before the pandemic and, in that transition process, we will see winners and losers.

Following the last update of the macroeconomic scenario in June this year, we have incorporated the new information that has come to light and have re-examined the main factors dominating the scenario.

A real-time analysis of wage incomes shows that, in 2022, the impact which the pandemic had on inequality has been undone and that it now stands at a very similar level to that which existed prior to the pandemic.