What are the implications of telecommuting for urban mobility and, from a longer-term perspective, the implications for the residential real estate market?
Search results
The high season for Spain’s tourism sector has turned out better than expected in 2025, confirming our view that tourism growth is normalising at solid levels: CaixaBank Research forecasts that tourism GDP will grow by 2.7% in 2025 and by 2.5% in 2026.
The 2021 labour reform has managed to significantly reduce the temporary employment rate in Spain: from an average of 29.7% in the period 2014-2019, it has fallen to 12.7% in 2024. This reduction has occurred across the various sectors, age groups and regions, and it has led to greater employment stability, although job turnover has increased and the number of contracts registered has decreased.
Luxury tourism has established itself as a strategic segment for the Spanish tourism sector, both for its high contribution to expenditure and for its potential to increase the value added of the sector. According to payment data analysed by CaixaBank Research, although this segment only represents 3% of international cards, it accounts for 20% of in-person spending by foreign tourists. The analysis also highlights the rise of urban luxury tourism, driven largely by Madrid’s dynamism as a high-end destination, despite luxury tourism still maintaining a strong coastal orientation. The United Kingdom, France and Germany are the main sources of tourists travelling to Spain, both in the luxury and conventional segments, although other economies with a very high GDP per capita, great inequality or a combination of both stand out.
Financial inclusion guarantees people access to an appropriate level of financial services. The considerable decline in the number of bank branches in Spain in recent years has increased the risk of financial exclusion for some customers in rural areas. These customers tend to prefer a physical bank branch and specialised offers, especially in the business segment. Within this context, the role played by rural bank branches is twofold: they allow the banking sector to specialised offers in economic sectors critical to large parts of the region, such as agriculture, whilst also maintaining a commitment to financial inclusion.
Rural destinations have emerged as the most attractive choice after the outbreak of the pandemic. Rural areas were a great alternative in the summer for those tourists wanting to travel whilst still maintaining a social distance. As a result, the loss of tourism business in the less urban regions of Spain has been much lower than in more traditional coastal destinations and cities. This article has applied big data techniques to analyse the trends in card payments made by both domestic and international tourists according to the characteristics of the destinations they visited. The results confirm the increased resilience of rural tourism destinations in 2020, suggesting a positive outlook for rural tourism in 2021.
One of the consequences of the COVID-19 health crisis has been the increased awareness of the population and, by extension, that of politicians regarding the need to include sustainability criteria in economic policies in order to promote a more sustainable and resilient reactivation of the economy. The tourism industry is no stranger to these trends; firstly, because its business can be adversely affected by the consequences of climate change and, secondly, because there is ample scope for the industry to become more sustainable. This article attempts to determine what we understand by sustainability in the tourism sector, how it can be measured, the current situation of Spain’s tourism industry and where it is heading.
The tourism sector’s improved situation was palpable by the end of November. The good figures posted in the summer were consolidated thanks to the season being extended to October and part of November. However, this positive trend has been hampered by the emergence of the latest wave of COVID-19 in Spain, related to the Omicron variant, raising doubts regarding the stability of the tourism sector over the coming months, which could see a negative start to 2022.
The tourism sector once again breaks records and consolidates its role as a driver of growth
In 2024, tourism GDP experienced another year of significant growth, with an estimated increase of 6% in real terms, roughly doubling that of the economy as a whole. This performance was driven by a sharp rise in the number of foreign tourists and their average spending, thanks to a recovery of British and long-haul tourism. On the other hand, Spanish tourists are now travelling abroad again, resuming pre-pandemic levels. In this favourable context, the hotel sector continues to enjoy very strong demand, which has allowed it to continue to raise its occupancy levels and its profitability to new highs. Looking ahead in 2025, Spain’s tourism sector will grow at a slightly more moderate rate, although it still has significant support factors to continue expanding and we expect it to remain one of the main growth drivers of the economy as a whole.
The current conflict between Iran, the US and Israel marks a new supply shock that is once again straining global value chains. This episode is the latest in a string of disruptions to global trade, such as the Trump administration’s tariff policy, the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. It also reinforces the need to diversify supply markets, avoiding major unilateral dependencies, and to work towards greater European production capacity. This message is particularly relevant in strategic areas for medium- and long-term growth, such as technology, healthcare, defence, and the dual green and digital transition.
Air passenger transport is one of the mainstays of the tourism sector's value chain. For this reason, and in a similar way to the rest of the sector, it experienced a huge slump in 2020 in the wake of COVID-19. Airlines are currently having to tackle a combination of high capital costs due to their large structures and an almost total lack of operating income. The evident need for liquidity among Europe's airlines has led some governments to inject public capital to prevent their collapse. However, 2021 looks like being the watershed the tourism sector needs: the progress made by the vaccination roll-outs and the approval of measures such as the health passport will be crucial for air passenger transport to embark on the road to recovery and return to being one of the mainstays of tourism.
Spain’s manufacturing sector has overcome a 2022 that was hit hard by the energy crisis and supply problems regarding some raw materials, preventing manufacturers from getting back to their pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, although the economic situation is still significantly uncertain, the outlook is somewhat more favourable than a few months ago: having weathered the more adverse scenarios observed during the winter, the economy continues to show positive signs thanks to the stabilisation of energy markets and the resilience of Spain’s labour market and household consumption.
The increase in energy prices throughout 2021 as a result of the combination of the sharp rise in global energy demand (due to the reactivation of the economic cycle) and a certain weakness in supply (due to geopolitical problems and the change in the energy model towards non-fossil fuels) has led to a global energy shock. In 2022, the geopolitical context is putting extra pressure on international gas and oil prices, which could aggravate the already significant impact of the energy bill on Spanish industry. This article examines the specific impact of rising energy prices on manufacturing, analysing which sub-sectors are being most affected and to what extent they are exposed to more sustained pressure on energy prices.
We have revised our GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 0.1 pp, placing them at 2.4% and 2.0%, respectively. Meanwhile, the available indicators show that the economy continues to enjoy steady growth in Q2.
The recent escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, with the outbreak of the war in Iran, has once again placed energy at the centre of the global economic agenda. Although the scope and duration of the conflict remain uncertain, markets, especially those for oil and natural gas, have reacted swiftly. In this context, we analyse where the Spanish economy stands in the face of this new energy shock.
Although the exposure of Spanish employment to US demand is limited in aggregate terms, its impact varies considerably from sector to sector. Activities such as manufacturing (especially in pharmaceuticals), air transportation, professional activities and ICT have closer links, together with the sale and repair of vehicles.
We expand on the assessment of the economic impact of the blackout on 28 April in Spain by taking a cross-section by sector and autonomous community region, based on the analysis of internal CaixaBank data.
We summarise the current situation and future outlook for the Spanish tourism sector, as set out in the Tourism Sector Report S1 2023, in this preview from the September edition of the CaixaBank Research Monthly Report.