Search at CaixaBank Research
Search results
1387 results found for Spain real estate
The Spanish economy closed 2025 with solid growth and has kicked off 2026 with figures that remain strong, albeit somewhat lower than those of last year. Together, the indicators published to date are consistent with CaixaBank Research’s forecast scenario, set out in the Focus «The Spanish economy in 2026» in this same Monthly Report, which anticipates GDP growth of 2.4% for this year. This allows the economy to tackle the potential consequences of the war that has erupted in the Middle East from a somewhat more comfortable position compared to other economies, but it is still too early to assess the consequences it could have. These will largely depend on the duration of the conflict and its impact on energy prices, trade routes and, ultimately, on global financial conditions and agents’ confidence. Right now, the risks are clearly skewed to the downside.
Tourism ended this year’s summer season in great shape with international tourist arrivals coming very close to the records set in 2019, a year that was extremely positive for the industry. Domestic tourism has also continued to post very good figures.
The tourism sector remains one of the key drivers of the Spanish economy, with tourism GDP expected to grow by 2.7%, above the Spanish average. However, it has entered a new phase of more moderate growth after years of strong expansion driven by the post-pandemic recovery.
This year and the next, the Spanish economy will enjoy strong expansionary momentum, supported by robust domestic demand and competitive advantages over its main European partners. Despite a challenging global environment, we forecast GDP growth of 2.9% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, supported by, among other factors, improved financial conditions supporting continued growth in private consumption and investment, population growth and relatively competitive energy costs. The sectoral analysis also reveals a broad-based expansionary cycle, which ranges from the best-performing sectors such as construction and pharmaceuticals to those that will grow at a more moderate pace, e.g. textiles and motor vehicles.
The resilience of the Spanish economy in recent years has been underpinned by both quantitative (strong job creation) and qualitative (more stable employment) improvements in the labour market. Firstly, there has been a fall in temporary employment, a factor that has traditionally fuelled job insecurity and social inequalities and held back investment in human capital, constraining the economy's growth potential; secondly, in some key sectors of our economy this has been accompanied by an improvement in productivity. However, the incipient improvement in overall productivity that has been observed is not widespread across all sectors.
Disruptions in global supply chains, present in markets since the end of 2020 due to the reactivation of demand after the worst phases of the pandemic, and later due to the effects of the war in Ukraine and the persistence of COVID-19 in Asia, affected activity in some manufacturing branches throughout the second half of 2021 and, above all, in 2022. In some sectors, the most intense episodes of difficulties for international trade forced production to be cut back on an ad hoc basis, or even to come to a halt. Logically, those industries most dependent on imports of raw materials and/or intermediate goods for their production processes, as well as those with greater complexity in their value chains, suffered the most.
The Spanish economy is currently undergoing a period of buoyant growth. With the effects of the pandemic and the energy crisis now behind it, it is now in a strong expansionary phase, marked by balanced and widespread growth across sectors
The restrictions put in place to curb the spread of the coronavirus and caution due to the prevailing uncertainty led to a large increase in savings by Spanish households in 2020. Specifically, we estimate that cumulative savings from the pandemic reached €46.6 billion, 3.7% of 2019’s GDP. This sharp increase in savings has diminished as we have been able to return to our old habits, leading to a rapid recovery in consumption; a trend that will most likely continue in the coming quarters.
The outbreak of war in Ukraine has overshadowed the positive outlook we were forecasting for the Spanish economy in 2022. While, at the end of last year, some factors had already appeared on the scene that hindered the economic recovery, the armed conflict in Ukraine has become the main focus of attention and the major conditioning factor for short-term economic developments.
Historically, and in general terms, increases (or decreases) in consumption go hand in hand with larger increases (or decreases) in consumer credit. This relationship is particularly close in the case of durable goods, which are the most frequently financed given that they tend to be larger expenses.
Judit is a Lead Economist in the Spanish Economics Department. PhD in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra and a Master in Economics from the same university, before joining CaixaBank she worked as an Economist in the Supervision and Regulation department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in the United States. Later she was Visiting Professor at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona in the Business department. She has published her research in the Journal of Financial Economics, the Journal of Banking and Finance and the Journal of Monetary Economics, among others. She is the coordinator of the Real Estate Sector Report and the Agrifood Sector Report.
Oriol is Head of Spanish Economics at CaixaBank Research. With an Executive Development Programme from IESE Business School to his name, he also holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master’s degree in Economics and Finance from the Centre for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI). He has published articles in internationally renowned academic journals, as well as papers on topics such as economic inequality, monetary policy, the real estate sector and financial stability, among others. He is Technical Secretary of the board of directors of the Cercle d’Economia.
The Spanish economy is facing 2026 from a strong starting position, supported by the momentum of buoyant growth in 2025, a dynamic labour market, strong domestic demand and relatively contained inflation despite the energy shock. The outbreak of the war in Iran has introduced a new supply shock, increasing uncertainty and forcing us to revise downwards the projected GDP growth for this year to 2.1%, 0.3 pps below the previous forecast. In any case, the intensity of the slowdown is expected to vary depending on the sector. Manufacturing sectors, which are more energy-intensive, outward-facing, and with a weaker cyclical position, will be the most affected. In contrast, services and other activities linked to domestic demand are starting from a more solid position and are less exposed.
The industry suffered a severe setback in 2020 but the data reveal a rapid recovery, awaiting the impact of European funds and with the automotive industry as a benchmark and driver of technological transformation.