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Expenditure on final consumption by Spain’s public administrations has grown significantly in recent years. In this article, we analyse the recent dynamics in public consumption, after first shedding some light on what this concept entails.

Spain’s non-financial corporations face uncertainty and risks, but their solid financial position, together with favourable financing conditions and the boost provided by NGEU funds, should encourage greater investment.

With the worst of the pandemic behind us, how is consumption recovering? Are there significant differences between the various groups of the population?

The savings of Spaniards went from 5,800 euros per household in 2023 to more than 7,000 in 2024. Why has the household savings rate increased and what do we expect for 2025?

The National Statistics Institute’s upward revision, combined with the buoyancy we have continued to observe in Q3, has led CaixaBank Research to revise its growth forecast for 2025 from 2.4% to 2.9%. With only three months remaining until the end of the year, it seems unlikely that growth will be far off 3%.

The rapid and unpredictable reconfiguration of the global geopolitical order is offering no respite and requires a constant reassessment of the state of each economy. What is the starting point, what are the strengths and areas of support, and what are the weaknesses or aspects that need to be addressed in order to bolster resilience? In the fragile and uncertain international context, reinforcing this last aspect seems more necessary than ever. The overall assessment of the state of the Spanish economy is relatively positive, particularly regarding the most recent dynamics, but significant challenges remain pending if this trend is to be sustained in the medium term.

The Spanish economy is growing at a good pace – more so than expected – and this leads us here at CaixaBank Research to revise our growth forecasts for 2025 upwards from 2.3% to 2.5%. Despite the good news, the focus is not on the improvement in the forecasts, but rather on the uncertainty that surrounds them. 

The good growth data for the Spanish economy in the final stretch of 2024 lead us to revise upwards our GDP growth forecast for 2025. However, the greater likelihood of tariff tensions between the US and the EU invites us to remain cautious. In this regard, we expect the economy to grow by 2.5% in 2025, above the 2.3% we were previously predicting, albeit somewhat below the revision we could have made in the absence of this uncertainty factor.

The Spanish economy continues to show significant dynamism, with better performance than expected, driven by domestic demand (both private consumption and investment). Among other factors, this is thanks to the strong financial situation of both households and firms, favourable financing conditions, the normalisation of inflation and the strength of the labour market.

Generally speaking, the world of economic prophets is populated by pessimistic or conservative people. It is preferable for things to go better than expected than for us to be caught off guard.

Despite Spain’s tourism model being highly competitive, the recovery of the different types of tourists has been uneven. This article examines how the reasons for international visits have changed, comparing the current situation with that of 2019, in order to assess whether there have been significant shifts in consumption patterns that are relevant to the sector.

Spain is facing 2026 with funding needs that remain high, albeit in a relatively more favourable fiscal context than its main European peers. Despite the reduction of the deficit and public debt as a percentage of GDP, the high nominal levels and a volume of maturities similar to that of 2025 mean that funding needs remain at levels comparable to those of recent years. In this context, the strength of demand for public debt – especially among non-resident investors – allows us to anticipate an orderly absorption of the issuance volume.

The outbreak of the war in the Middle East has once again triggered a spike in global uncertainty. As has occurred repeatedly in recent years, we yet again find ourselves in a context in which it is very difficult to make reliable forecasts. It happened during the pandemic, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, more recently, when Donald Trump launched the barrage of tariffs. Although the nature of the shocks and the transmission channels have been different each time, the feeling that we are moving towards an uncertain future is repeated. Once again, it is time to reassess where the Spanish economy stands and analyse its strengths and vulnerabilities in relation to the channels through which this new shock could spread.

One of the factors that could limit the speed of the economic recovery in Spain is the mismatch that is beginning to become apparent in the labour market. New unfilled job offers have been growing significantly since late 2020, and in Q2 2021 there were around 120,000, the highest figure in the last decade.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the noise caused by the geopolitical context and focus on the signal coming from macroeconomic data. The sense of vulnerability is heightened by the unpredictability surrounding the pace of change in the old international order.

Q2 2025 began with all bets placed on a slowdown in the growth of the Spanish economy. In early April, and after months of threats, the Trump administration announced bilateral tariffs and catapulted the main uncertainty indicators to all-time highs. Weeks later, a blackout left the Iberian Peninsula without electricity for a day. Moreover, all this happened in an environment in which the euro area economy was once again showing signs of cooling.

The devastation caused by the floods could subtract between 10 and 20 basis points from Spain’s GDP in Q4 2024. This estimate is subject to a high degree of uncertainty and assumes a significant impact on Valencia’s primary sector, a moderate impact on its industry and a milder impact on trade. The estimate for 2025 will depend largely on the scale of the investments allocated to reconstruction and the replenishment of the capital destroyed in the floods, as well as on the support measures that are implemented.