Between 2019 and 2025, Spain's manufacturing industry has grown at a similar rate to overall GDP, despite the impact of the pandemic and the energy crisis. This strong performance stands in contrast to the stagnation and decline seen in the industrial sector in the main European economies, and marks a departure from the trend of the last two decades, when its share of Spain's GDP fell from 16.7% to 10.8%. In this article we examine some of the drivers behind this turnaround in the Spanish industrial sector, most notably energy prices and productivity.
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The publication of the latest agricultural census by Spain’s National Statistics Institute, corresponding to 2020, not only allows us to describe exhaustively how the Spanish agricultural sector has evolved in recent decades in supply terms but also to detect any structural changes and predict new trends, strengths and weaknesses. The typical farm is still characterised by being small, economically modest and run primarily by a relatively older male, with little generational renewal, one of the major handicaps facing the sector. However, successive censuses reveal a gradual process of increased concentration among farms, which are becoming larger and more productive, as well as a greater presence of women in the sector.
The food price rally has begun to slow, but the cumulative increase since 2019 is significant and expenditure on food now represents a higher percentage of Spanish households’ consumption. The decline in agricultural and energy commodity prices in the international markets relative to their peaks reached in 2022 should help to contain agricultural production costs and thus to further ease the inflationary pressures on food over the coming quarters.
The sector is focusing on a strategy of diversifying its supply and addressing the weaknesses of the traditional sun, sea and sand model in order to maintain the leadership enjoyed by Spain in the global competitiveness ranking.
What exactly is productivity and how can we measure it? Where does Spain lie in terms of its productivity compared to the rest of the euro area? With this article, we launch a series on the fundamentals of the Spanish economy, which will continue in the monthly reports of the coming months.
The macroeconomic landscape is once again constrained by a geopolitical conflict. The crisis between the US and Iran, which began over three months ago, remains under a fragile truce. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which is currently the most damaging factor for the global economy. Spain is facing this episode from a position of strength, but rising energy costs and the deteriorating international environment will reduce economic dynamism and increase inflation. Therefore, we have revised our GDP growth forecast to 2.1% for 2026 and to 1.8% for 2027, compared to 2.4% and 2.0% previously. This is a moderate revision and it does not change the diagnosis of a dynamically growing economy.
We analyse how tourists react to episodes of extreme heat in order to anticipate risks and opportunities for the tourism sector in the face of climate change, using anonymised internal data from foreign card payments on CaixaBank POS terminals.
As a result of teleworking, remote education and the restrictions imposed on more social forms of entertainment, we have witnessed an increase in the consumption of technological goods compared to other categories of consumption. While in the first article of this Dossier we analysed the global demand for these goods during the pandemic and its possible persistence in the post-COVID world, in this article we focus on the case of Spain.
The ageing of the population will have a major impact on the public finances of advanced economies. The mechanism is well known: the ageing of the population and the consequent increase in dependency ratios can reduce tax revenues and increase public spending substantially. The main message of this article is that demographics will exert intense upward pressure on the public finances in Spain and Europe.
A real-time analysis of wage incomes shows that, in 2022, the impact which the pandemic had on inequality has been undone and that it now stands at a very similar level to that which existed prior to the pandemic.
In this article, we analyse the factors behind the recent evolution of Spain’s household savings rate and the outlook for 2026, in a context marked by the conflict in the Middle East, which could lead to higher inflation and potential interest rate hikes.
Presenting realtimeeconomics.caixabankresearch.com, a new website where you can track the developments in equality in Spain in real time.
Employment in Spain has experienced rapid growth in recent years. The unemployment rate has also fallen sharply, but it remains one of the highest in the euro area. Can the labour market continue to support Spain’s economic growth?
There are five factors that suggest that the gap between Spain’s GDP and its pre-pandemic trajectory will steadily close through growth remaining above the historical average of 2.0%.
In this first article in a series of two, we review the recent trends in capital investment in Spain and make a comparison with the rest of the euro area. In a second article in this same Monthly Report, we investigate the incentives for investing, based on an analysis of the evolution of profitability and the cost of financing, sector by sector.
The Spanish economy performed better than expected in the first half of the year, but a slight moderation is anticipated in the second half.