Thanks to its resounding success in combating COVID-19, China expects to see its economy grow by 2.0% in this pandemic-filled year, making it the only major economy to end 2020 on a positive note. The future is not written in stone but, in 2020, China took significant steps towards resuming its previous role as the world's leading economy.
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China is facing a particularly challenging economic environment. The combination of a housing crisis and slowing global demand – two major drivers of China’s growth in recent decades – has been joined by a third force, which over the last two years has been shown to have significant potential to distort the economy: the zero-COVID policy.
In this article we analyse what factors explain China’s recent cycle of low inflation and what risks could transform it into a deflationary crisis.
The outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, and more recently the war in Ukraine, has accelerated the trend of decoupling between the US and China, and Europe also appears to have joined in, albeit somewhat timidly for now. We analyse the EU’s dependence on China in order to understand whether European strategic autonomy is possible, or even desirable.
Activity in Spain’s agrifood sector is increasing at a faster rate than across the economy as a whole and the outlook for the 2024-2025 campaign is encouraging. Exports are holding up well in the adverse environment of recent years and the food price rally has begun to slow, although the cumulative increase since 2019 remains significant.
The new technology restrictions that the US has imposed on China represent an escalation of the decoupling policy pursued by the current US Administration. Although the distancing between the two powers has a long history, under Trump’s presidency it has become a fully-fledged conflict.
India and China have undergone an unprecedented economic transformation in recent decades, but their growth trajectories have followed diverging paths. In this article, we compare the two models from a long-term perspective, breaking down the factors that have driven their economies: capital, labour and productivity.
The data from recent quarters show growing evidence of two major phenomena: the slowdown in the trade of goods, but not in services, and the growing fragmentation of global trade and production. At the epicentre of it all is China, with its increasingly key role in global manufacturing, which is decoupling from the United States.
China’s real estate sector is often described as «the most important sector in the world» because of the importance it has amassed in recent decades in the Asian giant’s growth model. We analyse how significant a role it plays in the Chinese economy and the risks of the Evergrande effect.
The composition of European final demand includes 2% Chinese goods and services, while the dependence rises to 6% in manufacturing, most notably in sectors such as textiles and electronics. But how much does China depend on the EU?
Despite being the world’s largest consumer of commodities, China lacks certain essential materials and relies heavily on imports, especially of oil, natural gas, copper, aluminium and nickel. To address this dependency, the country has implemented a long-term strategy that includes the stockpiling of strategic reserves, which could affect global commodity prices.
We continue to analyse the phenomenon of de-risking among the major economic powers in a new instalment of articles dedicated to international trade and geopolitics. In this first article, we will focus on the United States and China, and in a second edition, on the European Union.
The pork industry has consolidated its position as the most important sector for Spanish livestock farming, accounting for over 40% of final livestock production. It comprises around 86,500 farms and 2,600 processors, with most of its production concentrated in just three regions: Catalonia, Aragon and Castile & Leon. Recently, the pork industry has managed to handle the fall in demand due to COVID-19 better than other meat sectors, a result of it being less dependent on the hospitality channel and also the increase in demand from China, whose domestic production has been severely affected by African swine fever (ASF). This situation has allowed Spain’s pork industry to consolidate its position as one of the major players in the EU and the world. The challenges that now need to be tackled by the sector include reducing its pollutant emissions and continuing to strictly apply the necessary biosecurity measures to stop ASF from entering Spain.
In mid-2020 the Chinese government announced a series of strict rules on access to credit in the real estate sector, which had historically followed a growth model based on high leverage. However, these measures not only managed to limit debt in the sector, but also exposed its vulnerabilities. In this article, we look at the biggest risks of this strategy.
After years of rapid expansion, the Chinese authorities have decided to put a stop to excessive leveraging in the real estate sector. Beginning in the summer of 2020 new limits on access to credit for property developers were imposed and the sector entered a prolonged phase of adjustment in which it still remains today.