Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
Investor sentiment soured slightly on Wednesday ahead of today's US Thanksgiving holiday. In the eurozone, government bond yields fell as Germany's GfK consumer confidence index for December fell on fears of job losses; and despite hawkish comments from ECB's Schnabel, who favoured gradual cuts and played down the risks of inflation undershooting 2%.
Investor sentiment diverged on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday. In the Eurozone, government bond yields were mixed, with French spreads widening after the European Commission endorsed the French draft budget for 2025, which aims to reduce public deficit from 6.1% of GDP to 5%. The budget has yet to be approved in parliament amid a political stalemate.
Investors started the week in a risk-on mood, particularly in the US. US Treasury yields fell sharply on the news of Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager seen by investors as fiscally sensible.
Investors closed the week driven by the November PMI indices, which showed a growing divergence between the Eurozone and US economies. In the US, the composite index climbed to a 31-month high of 55.3 on hopes of pro-business policies from Trump. In the eurozone, both the services and manufacturing indices fell below 50 and disappointed.
With no relevant macro data releases, investors struggled to find a direction for their trades on Thursday. Eurozone government bond yields fell, with peripheral spreads widening, as the consumer confidence index came in below expectations and several ECB officials warned of a significant hit to growth from Trump's tariffs.
Investors' risk appetite waned yesterday amid renewed tensions in the war in Ukraine. Government bond yields rose in the Eurozone, where data released yesterday showed that negotiated wage growth accelerated to 5.4% in Q3 from 4.6% in Q2, which could cause the ECB to reconsider its dovishness if this feeds through to inflation in the coming months.
Financial markets had a volatile session on Tuesday, driven by geopolitical headlines and with no major macro data releases. Eurozone government bond yields fell as several ECB officials speaking during the day supported a dovish ECB, notably Italy's Panetta, who said the ECB should focus on the sluggish economy and move rates to an expansionary stance.
Financial markets started the week with subdued trading and no relevant macroeconomic data releases. Government bond yields fell slightly in the US and rose in the eurozone, with curves flattening and peripheral spreads flat. Several ECB officials highlighted yesterday their concerns about Trump's protectionist plans impact on growth rather than inflation.
Investors' risk appetite eased slightly on Friday as the day's US macro data supported a more hawkish Fed, right after Powell had hinted at a slower pace of Fed cuts on Thursday. The US economy remains strong: retail sales rose in October and the NY Empire Manufacturing survey surprised to the upside, while October import prices also surprised to the upside.
Remarks by central bank officials took center stage in yesterday's session. From the ECB, Luis de Guindos reiterated that the ECB is on its path to cut interest rate as inflation data is on track to its 2% target. On the other hand, Fed Chairman Powell said there is no need to rush to lower rates given the strong economic backdrop in the US.
US inflation data was in line with consensus expectations: headline inflation rose in October to 2.6% yoy from 2.4% in September, while core inflation, which excludes flood and energy, remained at 3.3%. Financial markets continue to price in 25 bp rate cut by the Fed at its upcoming December meeting (with an 85% probability).
Market sentiment was dampened by weak investor confidence data in Germany (ZEW index dropped to 7.4 from 13.1 in the previous month), where also Chancellor Scholtz announced elections will be held in February after the ruling coalition collapsed last week. Sentiment was further dampened by caution ahead of today's inflation report in the US.