| No. 515
The global economy faces the final stretch of 2026 in a challenging environment. The prolonged conflict in the Middle East is keeping energy prices high and has led central banks to tighten monetary policy, while the resilience of economic activity and the investment boom associated with AI are acting as counterbalances. In this October issue, we present the update of our international economic and financial forecasts and we analyse the new balance between inflation, interest rates and growth. We also revise our macroeconomic outlook for Spain: we have raised the growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6% and maintained the 2027 forecast at 2.0%. We also assess the potential institutional and economic effects of the upcoming US midterm elections, we examine the consequences of the migration policies of the second Trump administration, and we take stock after a particularly dynamic high tourist season in Spain.
