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After performing better than expected in the first half of 2023, global economic activity has experienced a slowdown in Q3 as a result of differing dynamics among the major economies. Below, we take a look at the outlook for the international economic environment.

Although it is still far from the 2% target rate, inflation in both the euro area and the US has fallen steadily throughout 2023, and one of the key assumptions in our 2024 outlook is that it will continue to do so next year, facilitating the first interest rate cuts by the Fed and the ECB. But how robust is this disinflationary assumption? How much of a hurry are the central banks in to lower rates?