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Despite the expected reduction in the deficit to around 5.0% of GDP in 2022, the Treasury’s funding needs will remain high. This leads to the question of whether it could experience difficulties in capturing this funding now that the ECB has announced that it will be reducing its purchases of public debt.

In an attempt to correct these market dysfunctions, there have been several reforms in recent decades, the most recent of which was approved by the government cabinet on 28 December and is being voted on today in Congress. This reform is also one of the milestones committed to with the EU as part of the RTRP, and its implementation is a requirement in order to access the European NGEU funds.

As has been evident in recent weeks, there are few things more important than having a proper exit strategy once a mission comes to an end. This also applies to the economy, where the appropriateness of indefinitely maintaining the economic policy programme which, quite rightly, has been used for the past year and a half to address the crisis triggered by the pandemic is beginning to be questioned.

The Ukraine conflict is nothing more than the canary in the coal mine for the growing instability on the geopolitical stage that we can expect to see over the coming years. The greatest exponent of this heightened instability will be the rivalry between China and the US.

In October, the main stock market indices reached all-time highs, the dollar appreciated, sovereign debt yields declined and euro area peripheral spreads narrowed. Commodities exhibited disparity between the rise in metals and the decline in crude oil prices. The central banks fulfilled expectations: the Fed cut rates and the ECB kept them unchanged.

In this article, we analyse the factors behind the recent behaviour of investment in Spain, comparing the current investment cycle with the previous one (2014-2019) and contrasting the situation in Spain with that of its main euro area partners.

We analyse recent developments and the outlook for public debt in the major advanced economies. While the United States, France and Belgium will continue to see an increase in their ratios, Japan and the United Kingdom could stabilise them. In contrast, the euro area periphery shows favourable conditions for reducing its debt, although it will require significant fiscal effort.

The health situation and the lockdowns made 2020 an annus horribilis for Portugal's tourism sector: total profits generated by tourist accommodation establishments fell by almost 3 billion euros and the total number of guests fell by 61%.

As we approach 2026, the global economy is once again demonstrating greater-than-expected resilience to uncertainty and geopolitical noise. However, growth and welfare will depend on how the division between economic blocs, the rise of artificial intelligence and fiscal challenges are managed, in a context of transition and increasing complexity.

In recent years, the discussion around critical commodities has emerged as a key element in the redefining of economic relations at a global level, in an environment marked by persistent geopolitical tensions. So-called critical minerals – such as rare earths, copper, or lithium – are key inputs for global industry and, specifically, for those sectors most closely linked to the green and digital transition. The demand for these commodities has grown sharply in recent years, as has the supply, driven by the largest global producers of many of these minerals, such as China, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

International tourism spending accelerated slightly in March 2026, driven by the redirection towards Spain of tourist flows from the main European source countries. This upturn offset the decline in tourism from East Asia, which, although intense, represents only a small portion of tourist arrivals in Spain.

In this article we analyse key aspects of Spain’s public finances, such as the duration of its public debt and the sensitivity of the risk premium to other economies, in order to assess the extent to which the challenging global environment and the fiscal risks in the rest of Europe can impact us.

Now, although the ECB has tightened the conditions required for an interest rate hike, there are more factors to support the idea that medium-term inflation could lie at 2%, and after more than a decade without doing so the ECB may finally raise interest rates.

The volatility of the main asset classes continued to decline in December, while liquidity improved in the US and financial conditions were eased, although risks related to geopolitics and AI persist. The main stock indices extended the rally that had begun in November, while long-term sovereign yields rose. The euro consolidated its appreciation in the year, while oil closed down at a four-year low due to oversupply and investors' medium-term reading of the situation in Venezuela. Precious metals experienced a historic rally, albeit not without setbacks.

We Europeans feel that economic policy failed to live up to the circumstances during the Great Recession. Some feel this way because not all the necessary reforms were carried out – and many are still pending to this day. Others feel let down because public sector support during the crisis and the subsequent recovery was insufficient. No doubt everyone is partly right, and that explains why the frustration was widespread. This time can be different. This time must be different.