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There is increasing pressure on the ECB to start raising interest rates, something that has not happened since 2011. However, in the current context of an economic slowdown with a multitude of downside risks, is it desirable for the ECB to begin to normalise its monetary policy in the coming months? Would it be better to wait for economic growth to recover?

After a 2025 marked by uncertainty around trade policy, in 2026, the conflict in Iran has emerged as the main source of risk for the global economy. We analyse the exposure channels of Spain’s various economic sectors to this shock. We focus on four transmission channels: the rising cost of fossil fuels, global trade tensions, direct supply risks stemming from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential tightening of financial conditions.

The biggest expansionary deployment from monetary policy in history is still in force today, and the recent shift in strategy by the world’s two major central banks – which let us not forget was intended to encourage an increase in inflation expectations – is currently in its trial phase.

It has been almost four months since our last update to the macroeconomic scenario. During these months, the Spanish economy has shown a more resilient tone than expected. Furthermore, the normalisation of gas prices, although incomplete, has been confirmed and the peak in reference interest rates is now in sight. Faced with all these changes, we have updated our macro forecast scenario.

We look at the cooling of the global manufacturing sector at a time marked by the convergence of various factors: the aftermath of the pandemic, the pull effect of China and the repercussions of the energy crisis for European industry.

The deluge of bad omens that is ravaging the difficult context we have been living through of late conceals a much more hopeful reality: the strength of the Spanish labour market. Its recent evolution continues to offer surprises, and in a good way. It is worth highlighting.

This article confirms, through the use of anonymised high-frequency internal data, how the interest rate hikes and cuts between 2022 and 2025 have affected Spaniards’ consumption. The results show that the monetary policy of the last cycle has clearly influenced household consumption in Spain, albeit with moderate intensity, and that interest rate cuts have had a tangible impact in boosting spending among households with variable-rate mortgages.

The economic shock of the war in Ukraine is having differing negative effects on the various sectors of the Spanish economy depending on their energy use, their exposure to certain global supply chains and their trade ties with the region.

In the midst of the low season for much of the sector, the figures published month by month continue to confirm strong demand despite the challenging economic environment that is affecting the global economy, particularly the European one. Will this dynamic continue in the coming months?

Global supply chains have been shaken once again following the joint US and Israeli attack on Iran and the subsequent spread of the conflict to other countries in the Middle East. Subject to uncertainty over the shock’s severity and duration, this episode is shaping up to be the greatest disruption to international trade since COVID-19.

On November 5th, the United States will be called to the polls in what will likely end up being a rematch between Biden and Trump for the country’s presidency. In this article we offer some context to shed light on the election race and we set out the effects it may have on the financial markets and the Federal Reserve.

The European Central Bank is reviewing the operating framework with which it implements interest rates. In this article we examine the main question marks in the process.

In a context of unusually high inflation, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have stepped up and are in the midst of the monetary policy normalisation process, albeit at different rates.

The outcome of the tariff agenda will be key to determining the course of the global economy in the coming months, at a time when the international economy continues to hold up despite the accumulation of geopolitical tensions, uncertainty and ongoing negotiations.

Employment has enjoyed a strong recovery in Spain since the pandemic. Between 2019 and the first three quarters of 2025, the number of people in employment grew by 11.9%. In addition, the sectoral distribution of this boom differs from the expansionary cycle of 2014-2019. Sectors such as healthcare, professional and scientific activities, and technology have gained prominence, while manufacturing and traditionally job-intensive areas such as trade, hospitality and agriculture have played a smaller role. These dynamics raise a key question: is the employment created in this phase of higher quality than in previous expansions? To answer this question, we have analysed three key aspects: workers’ qualifications, the trend in temporary employment – as an indicator of stability – and real wages.

Beyond the number of visitors, the main challenge for the tourism sector is to continue growing in a sustainable and balanced manner. To this end, it is important to pay attention to other areas of a structural nature, which allow us to make a good diagnosis of the sector’s strengths, in order to continue developing them, as well as the weaknesses that must be addressed in order to make this growth sustainable in the long term. 

In recent years, the discussion around critical commodities has emerged as a key element in the redefining of economic relations at a global level, in an environment marked by persistent geopolitical tensions. So-called critical minerals – such as rare earths, copper, or lithium – are key inputs for global industry and, specifically, for those sectors most closely linked to the green and digital transition. The demand for these commodities has grown sharply in recent years, as has the supply, driven by the largest global producers of many of these minerals, such as China, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 

The BRI has become a key element for China’s global positioning. Faced with weakened domestic demand and chronic overcapacity, the initiative has facilitated the opening up of new markets, the diversification of export destinations, the dominance of value chains for critical commodities that are essential for its industrial development, and the reduction of dependence on geo-economic rivals, a factor that has gained particular importance in recent years.

We delve into the REPowerEU plan, approved in May by the European Commission, and its measures to accelerate the energy transition envisaged in the Green Deal and the Fit for 55 package.

The upturn in debt yields on a global scale has put the fiscal situation back in the spotlight. The case of Europe is of particular interest, since in 2024 the fiscal rules will be reinstated after having been suspended since 2019 due to the pandemic and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. What the new fiscal framework proposes? Is the proposed plan more or less strict than the current one?