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After a 2025 marked by uncertainty around trade policy, in 2026, the conflict in Iran has emerged as the main source of risk for the global economy. We analyse the exposure channels of Spain’s various economic sectors to this shock. We focus on four transmission channels: the rising cost of fossil fuels, global trade tensions, direct supply risks stemming from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential tightening of financial conditions.

The European Commission has already opened a public consultation to relaunch the debate on the reform of the economic governance framework. The requirements state that the sustainability of the public finances must be assured without jeopardising the economic recovery, and that the rules must be simple and their application transparent. 

We look at the cooling of the global manufacturing sector at a time marked by the convergence of various factors: the aftermath of the pandemic, the pull effect of China and the repercussions of the energy crisis for European industry.

It has been almost four months since our last update to the macroeconomic scenario. During these months, the Spanish economy has shown a more resilient tone than expected. Furthermore, the normalisation of gas prices, although incomplete, has been confirmed and the peak in reference interest rates is now in sight. Faced with all these changes, we have updated our macro forecast scenario.

The economic shock of the war in Ukraine is having differing negative effects on the various sectors of the Spanish economy depending on their energy use, their exposure to certain global supply chains and their trade ties with the region.

In a context of unusually high inflation, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have stepped up and are in the midst of the monetary policy normalisation process, albeit at different rates.

On November 5th, the United States will be called to the polls in what will likely end up being a rematch between Biden and Trump for the country’s presidency. In this article we offer some context to shed light on the election race and we set out the effects it may have on the financial markets and the Federal Reserve.

The biggest expansionary deployment from monetary policy in history is still in force today, and the recent shift in strategy by the world’s two major central banks – which let us not forget was intended to encourage an increase in inflation expectations – is currently in its trial phase.

After a much better-than-expected start to the year, the strength of the global economy will be tested once again in the coming months. The flexibility and coordination of economic policy in the face of these new challenges will determine the capacity of the current business cycle to overcome them.

This article confirms, through the use of anonymised high-frequency internal data, how the interest rate hikes and cuts between 2022 and 2025 have affected Spaniards’ consumption. The results show that the monetary policy of the last cycle has clearly influenced household consumption in Spain, albeit with moderate intensity, and that interest rate cuts have had a tangible impact in boosting spending among households with variable-rate mortgages.

In an attempt to correct these market dysfunctions, there have been several reforms in recent decades, the most recent of which was approved by the government cabinet on 28 December and is being voted on today in Congress. This reform is also one of the milestones committed to with the EU as part of the RTRP, and its implementation is a requirement in order to access the European NGEU funds.

The NGEU funds and the national investment programmes in Germany and France are the result of a long process of changes in the big economic blocs, accelerated by COVID and the war in Ukraine. These efforts seek to redefine and adapt production models to the energy transition and digitalisation in a context of uncertainty and new geopolitical dynamics.

The indicators that have been published during the opening months of the year paint a picture of a buoyant Spanish economy in Q1 2025, albeit with a slightly less vigorous growth rate than in the previous quarter.

Global supply chains have been shaken once again following the joint US and Israeli attack on Iran and the subsequent spread of the conflict to other countries in the Middle East. Subject to uncertainty over the shock’s severity and duration, this episode is shaping up to be the greatest disruption to international trade since COVID-19.

The risk map is demanding and, in addition to the prevalence of geopolitical disruptions, the financial markets have shown sensitivity to the promises, doubts and transformations of artificial intelligence (AI) and to the sustainability of public debt.

CaixaBank Research’s forecast scenario for the Spanish economy, which was finalised before the outbreak of the war in Iran, anticipates dynamic growth in 2026, albeit more moderate than that of recent years. Domestic demand, and especially private consumption and investment, began the year with sufficient momentum to enjoy strong growth and continue leading the recovery. However, the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East opens a new chapter of global economic and political uncertainty.

Following the rise in the cost of energy imports in 2022, the recovery of the foreign sector was particularly rapid in 2023 and the four largest economies in the euro area have improved their current account balances, although only Spain has managed to surpass the 2019 figure.

We examine the current state and the particularities of the commercial real estate sector in the United States, and the extent of the banking sector’s exposure, following the collapse in the share price of New York Community Bancorp.

The US interest rates have risen steadily and significantly, galvanised by the Federal Reserve’s rapid and aggressive monetary tightening policies. However, this does not necessarily mean that US bonds are more attractive than their European counterparts. A key factor in the comparison is the exchange rate.

In the midst of the low season for much of the sector, the figures published month by month continue to confirm strong demand despite the challenging economic environment that is affecting the global economy, particularly the European one. Will this dynamic continue in the coming months?