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The feeling is that we are close to a turning point, after which the effects of the monetary tightening process that have accumulated in the last year and a half.

The world economy ended the first half of 2023 with three major dynamics: economic activity remained resilient, inflation fell steadily in all major economies, and financial conditions continued to tighten.

Euro area inflation has been steadily declining for one clear reason: easing energy tensions. The question now is whether it will continue to fall rapidly towards 2% or whether it will encounter new pitfalls that hinder its downward path.

In the three years prior to the pandemic, overnight stays in Q3 represented an average of around 40% of annual overnight stays. Therefore, whether tourism exceeds the pre-pandemic levels or not in 2023 depends largely on the sector’s performance in this period.

While the development of artificial intelligence dates back to the 1950s-60s, advances in the past decade have driven more recent developments in so-called generative AI, capable of producing text, code and audiovisual material based on patterns learned from large datasets. The deployment of AI can be divided into four key phases: innovation, development of new infrastructure, diffusion and widespread adoption of the new technology, and adaptation of business models and markets to the new technology.

The Spanish economy will have to continue to navigate an adverse and complex international environment. But, for now, it has started the year on a good footing.

International tourism spending accelerated slightly in March 2026, driven by the redirection towards Spain of tourist flows from the main European source countries. This upturn offset the decline in tourism from East Asia, which, although intense, represents only a small portion of tourist arrivals in Spain.

Markets kicked off 2024 with risk appetite, supported by rhetoric of a soft landing in the major advanced economies and a positive assessment of the macroeconomic data.

Spain’s foreign sector has registered a surplus for the last 12 consecutive years. The strength of this success was proven last year, when the current account balance survived the energy crisis, which caused a sharp rise in the price of imported energy products and a marked deterioration in the trade balance.

 The war triggered significant risk aversion, leading to stock market declines, spikes in volatility, a flight to safe-haven assets, and a sharp tightening in energy and other commodity prices. This increase in energy prices, in turn, led to a rise in short-term inflation expectations, resulting in a significant adjustment of monetary policy expectations and an increase in sovereign interest rates. In a context of high uncertainty regarding the duration and intensity of the conflict, markets reacted very sensitively to a constant flow of news such as political statements, episodes of military escalation and fluctuations in the rhetoric of international leaders. 

The CaixaBank Research real estate clock shows the evolution of home prices and sales in Spain throughout the cycle. In 2024, the «clock» will remain in the slowdown quadrant, before giving way to 2025, when we expect the housing market to return to expansive territory.

The global economy demonstrated notable resilience during 2025, providing a good starting point for 2026, such that the global economy could continue to grow at a rate of around 3%, with globally stable inflation. However, the risks to the baseline global scenarios have increased significantly following the joint US and Israeli attack on Iran, which has triggered a surge in oil and gas prices and turmoil in the financial markets. 

Cautiously optimistic outlook for the international economy, but with a demanding risk map. The US stands out among advanced economies, while the euro area has not yet left behind its sluggish economic activity. Among emerging markets, India’s growth tops the BRICS, with China giving way to the new leader.