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The recent recovery in emerging currencies is being interpreted either as the beginning of a more lasting regime change or a temporary upward trend. We explore the macroeconomic fundamentals and market dynamics to determine which side has the most arguments. 

How is the economic crisis affecting the different strata of the population? Is it affecting us all equally? To what extent are the public sector support programmes cushioning the blow?

Economic activity managed to rebound firmly and across the board in Q3, but the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections has led to a further tightening of mobility restrictions in many countries (especially in Europe), and most indicators suggest that economic activity will contract once again in the current fourth quarter. But
how much of a contraction are we talking about?

We assess the most important points in the last-minute agreement by which, on 1 January 2021, the UK left the single market and customs union with the EU.

The COVID-19 outbreak has brought about a paradigm shift in many aspects of the economy, including consumer habits and, specifically, e-commerce in the retail sector. How have businesses that were already selling online pre-pandemic and the new entrants to this sales channel contributed to the growth in e-commerce?

Inflation has surged in early 2021, but most of the factors driving it are of a technical and temporary nature and should not affect the ECB’s monetary policy stance.

Once the pandemic is over, the very need to act decisively in monetary and fiscal terms will have repercussions that, depending on how these are managed, could affect the performance of economic policy in the future.

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a historic fall in household consumption in 2020. In the euro area, the decline reached 15.4% in Q2 of that year and stood at –8.1% for the year as a whole, with bigger reductions in the countries hardest hit by the first wave of the pandemic. Unlike previous crises, however, the declines in consumption were not accompanied by similar declines in households’ disposable income.

This is no country for young men. We see it in our environment and the data increasingly expose the reality. The labour force survey for the first quarter of the year has reminded us once again: Spain’s youth unemployment rate, the benchmark for assessing the situation of people aged under 25, remains extraordinarily high, at 40%.

We Europeans feel that economic policy failed to live up to the circumstances during the Great Recession. Some feel this way because not all the necessary reforms were carried out – and many are still pending to this day. Others feel let down because public sector support during the crisis and the subsequent recovery was insufficient. No doubt everyone is partly right, and that explains why the frustration was widespread. This time can be different. This time must be different.

As has been evident in recent weeks, there are few things more important than having a proper exit strategy once a mission comes to an end. This also applies to the economy, where the appropriateness of indefinitely maintaining the economic policy programme which, quite rightly, has been used for the past year and a half to address the crisis triggered by the pandemic is beginning to be questioned.

The first season of the COVID-19 series caught us by surprise and totally unprepared. It was short, lasting barely a few months in the major developed countries, but the experience was terrible.

Did online trade mitigate the fall in household consumption in Portugal? Were (are) Portuguese businesses ready to do business in this way? Have consumers’ habits changed? Can e-commerce continue to gain ground from traditional retail?

The recovery of economic activity is finally a tangible reality, clearly reflected in the main economic indicators. Having plummeted to more than 20% below the pre-pandemic level, by Q2 2021 GDP had recovered nearly two-thirds of the lost territory. But is the economic recovery reaching all pockets?

GDP beat expectations in Q4 2024 with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5%, placing growth for the year as a whole at 1.9%. The good performance in the final stretch of 2024 introduces upside risks into CaixaBank Research’s current forecast for 2025 (2.3%), due to the knock-on effect.

In the current context of uncertainty, one of the most encouraging aspects of the Spanish economy is the strong performance of the labour market. Despite some loss of momentum in recent months, job creation continues apace, with permanent hiring making particularly strong inroads, and this in turn is helping to bring down unemployment and temporary employment.

The Draghi report lays the foundations for re-industrialisation in Europe, combining sweeping actions with a menu of specific proposals for 10 strategic sectors.

The tailwinds generated by the latest inflation data and strong labour markets coexist with a natural loss of cyclical momentum and, in particular, with an environment marked by high geopolitical risks. This combination of competing forces will determine the pace of growth over the coming quarters.

Now, although the ECB has tightened the conditions required for an interest rate hike, there are more factors to support the idea that medium-term inflation could lie at 2%, and after more than a decade without doing so the ECB may finally raise interest rates.

The Spanish government has presented to parliament the Draft General State Budgets for 2022 and has sent to Brussels its Budget Plan showing a picture of the consolidated general government accounts. What lies behind these figures? In which categories will the deficit reduction be concentrated?