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In the third article of the Dossier «An analysis of European productivity», we conduct an in-depth analysis of the key economic factors driving productivity at the European regional level and their quantitative contribution.

Did online trade mitigate the fall in household consumption in Portugal? Were (are) Portuguese businesses ready to do business in this way? Have consumers’ habits changed? Can e-commerce continue to gain ground from traditional retail?

GDP beat expectations in Q4 2024 with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5%, placing growth for the year as a whole at 1.9%. The good performance in the final stretch of 2024 introduces upside risks into CaixaBank Research’s current forecast for 2025 (2.3%), due to the knock-on effect.

The 12-month Euribor has rallied from –0.50% at the end of 2021 to over 1.0% in the second half of June, its highest level since early 2014. Why has it increased and what impact does this have on the economy? What can we expect over the coming months?

In this article, we focus on analysing the past evolution and future outlook for potential GDP growth. This is a key variable, since it offers an indication of our economy’s underlying growth trend.In other words, it tells us how much the economy can grow by in a sustained manner in the absence of shocks if all of the economy’s productive capacity is used and no imbalances arise.

The ECB has completed a monetary cycle, leaving the negative rates and unconventional measures of the last decade behind and significantly tightening monetary policy. During this cycle, the ECB has also adjusted the structure it uses to guide and implement monetary policy

In the current circumstances, each person’s perception of the economic situation is very different and may be heavily influenced by the sector in which they work or the region in which they live. Fortunately, we have data which we can use to check our impression of the economic reality.

The risk premium on Portuguese debt has fallen significantly in the last 18 months and has remained well below those of Italy and Spain. What explains this dynamic?

The Spanish economy performed better than expected in the first half of the year, but a slight moderation is anticipated in the second half.

Since we began using Google, never before have we written the word «recession» so often in the search bar. The level of concern has surged throughout the world, including in Spain.

The current demographic transition should lead, ceteris paribus, to a significant slowdown in economic growth over the coming decades, in both advanced and emerging and developing countries. Only an ambitious implementation of a set of policies can significantly cushion its effects. 

In the other pages of this Dossier, we have analysed in depth how ageing will affect the capacity for economic growth and the public finances. All these changes will have consequences on the supply and demand for savings and, therefore, on the interest rates of economies.

We analyse recent developments and the outlook for public debt in the major advanced economies. While the United States, France and Belgium will continue to see an increase in their ratios, Japan and the United Kingdom could stabilise them. In contrast, the euro area periphery shows favourable conditions for reducing its debt, although it will require significant fiscal effort.

The recovery of economic activity is finally a tangible reality, clearly reflected in the main economic indicators. Having plummeted to more than 20% below the pre-pandemic level, by Q2 2021 GDP had recovered nearly two-thirds of the lost territory. But is the economic recovery reaching all pockets?

According to the first estimate for Q1 2023, GDP growth gathered pace compared to the previous quarter, with a quarterly increase of 0.5% versus 0.4% in Q4 2022 (after being revised 2 percentage points upwards). In year-on-year terms, growth rose to 3.8%, versus 2.9% in the previous quarter.

Emerging countries have experienced a number of crises throughout the various cycles of monetary tightening in the US, enduring a very high economic and financial cost. What will be the consequences of the Fed’s rate hikes for their economies?

Technological change will change the payment system as we know it, and blockchain technology will probably play a very important role in this process by facilitating the emergence of digital currencies. What are the key aspects of the technologies that will enable this transformation? Which cryptocurrencies are most likely to succeed?

Prolonging working life, boosting productivity and attracting more immigration are three of the levers proposed by economists to mitigate the impact of ageing on public finances in general and, in particular, on pension spending.

Undoubtedly, the negotiation of the next budget will once again test the health of the European project, on which our strategic autonomy needed to address the geopolitical challenges that will continue to come from abroad will depend.