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Although it is still far from the 2% target rate, inflation in both the euro area and the US has fallen steadily throughout 2023, and one of the key assumptions in our 2024 outlook is that it will continue to do so next year, facilitating the first interest rate cuts by the Fed and the ECB. But how robust is this disinflationary assumption? How much of a hurry are the central banks in to lower rates?

The Draghi report lays the foundations for re-industrialisation in Europe, combining sweeping actions with a menu of specific proposals for 10 strategic sectors.

The relative improvement in international prices of agricultural goods has barely been reflected in global consumer prices. The main reason for this is the depreciation of many countries’ currencies against the dollar, which intensified with the Fed’s first interest rate hike.

The Spanish government has presented to parliament the Draft General State Budgets for 2022 and has sent to Brussels its Budget Plan showing a picture of the consolidated general government accounts. What lies behind these figures? In which categories will the deficit reduction be concentrated?

The Portuguese tourism sector is making headlines, with its exuberant statistics and optimism surrounding its future outlook. In this article we present the key figures of the tourism sector and their impact on the macroeconomic accounts.

Since we began using Google, never before have we written the word «recession» so often in the search bar. The level of concern has surged throughout the world, including in Spain.

Trade protectionism has been part of the new geopolitical normal for years now, but it has reached its peak in 2025 with the new US administration. In this more hostile environment and in the absence of an effective multilateral forum, the EU continues to make efforts to broaden its economic relations with different regions of the world. The strategy of diversification has become a valuable tool, not only in the search for markets with high export growth potential, but also in making progress towards the desired strategic autonomy.

The balance of the European Competitiveness Compass in 2026 is positive in terms of orientation and debate, but limited in progress, with key decisions still pending and with an uncertain future in a more complex geopolitical environment.

We are witnessing the first strikes of the transformation process in which the world economy is currently immersed and which will test everything from trade relations between the major economic blocs to the solidity of the institutions that have generated well-being in recent decades.

For much of April, the tone in the financial markets was marked by geopolitical risks and investors’ bets about the near future of monetary policy in the major developed economies.

Did online trade mitigate the fall in household consumption in Portugal? Were (are) Portuguese businesses ready to do business in this way? Have consumers’ habits changed? Can e-commerce continue to gain ground from traditional retail?

The ECB has completed a monetary cycle, leaving the negative rates and unconventional measures of the last decade behind and significantly tightening monetary policy. During this cycle, the ECB has also adjusted the structure it uses to guide and implement monetary policy

This year, the ECB will not only continue to raise interest rates, but it will also reduce the size of its balance sheet. How will this reduction work and what consequences could it have for sovereign debt?

Gross disposable income is growing well above household spending in Spain, with the consequent improvement in household finances. We explain this increase and explore where the savings are being allocated.

With this Monthly Report (MR) we celebrate 500 issues since the publication’s birth in January 1980. It has been 45 years and five months, with 11 issues published each year (we only take a break in August) and with the same goal since the beginning: to offer the reader a view of the current economic situation, both in relation to the latest developments and underlying structural issues.

GDP provides a positive surprise in Q1, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.7%, according to the first provisional estimate published by the country’s National Statistics Institute.This exceeds our forecast of 0.4% and, therefore, introduces upward risks to our forecast for the year as a whole, which until now has stood at 1.6%.

As the global economy’s landing is turning out to be smoother than anticipated a few months ago, the last few weeks reminded us that the environment continues to be marked by a high degree of uncertainty.

The recovery of economic activity is finally a tangible reality, clearly reflected in the main economic indicators. Having plummeted to more than 20% below the pre-pandemic level, by Q2 2021 GDP had recovered nearly two-thirds of the lost territory. But is the economic recovery reaching all pockets?

At least for now, and despite the depreciation it has accumulated so far this year, the value of the dollar does not appear to reflect any major change in the currency’s central role in the international monetary system.

In the third article of the Dossier «An analysis of European productivity», we conduct an in-depth analysis of the key economic factors driving productivity at the European regional level and their quantitative contribution.