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We expect the global economy to grow by 3.1% both in 2025 and in 2026 (up from 2.9% previously), driven by upward revisions in the US (from 1.3% to 1.8% in 2025) and China (from 4.2% to 4.6%), in addition to marginal improvements in the euro area (from 1.2% to 1.3%).

The US economy is facing 2026 with a mix of strength and vulnerability. The resilience demonstrated in 2025 has exceeded expectations, and investment in AI, the fiscal stimulus and new rate cuts predict another year of strong growth. Nevertheless, the picture is not free from risks.

As we approach 2026, the global economy is once again demonstrating greater-than-expected resilience to uncertainty and geopolitical noise. However, growth and welfare will depend on how the division between economic blocs, the rise of artificial intelligence and fiscal challenges are managed, in a context of transition and increasing complexity.

Like all forecasts, our scenario is subject to uncertainty. For this reason, we present growth intervals with their respective associated probabilities. Nevertheless, we can state with a high degree of confidence that the Spanish economy will continue to grow at a steady pace next year.

We measure how intensely and for how long the rise in agricultural commodity prices is spreading throughout the food chain: from international agricultural prices, to the prices received by farmers in Spain and, finally, to consumer prices.

We review how emerging economies have dealt with the pandemic, the crisis stemming from the war in Ukraine and the protectionist shift of the United States, and to what extent they have recovered.

Through the BRI, China has sought to establish alliances and improve regional connectivity through infrastructure investments and economic integration in the Eurasian continent, as well as in Africa and Latin America.

Does the rebound in imports in Spain respond to greater dynamism in domestic demand? Or does it reflect an increase in the import content of the Spanish economy?

This first article in the Dossier “Solidarity in Spain: snapshot of a committed society” examines the social attitudes and philanthropic behaviour of the Spanish population through the representative survey commissioned by the Social Observatory of the ”la Caixa” Foundation in 2024.

After examining how philanthropy is perceived in Spain, and the main charitable causes that Spaniards support, in this third article of the Dossier "Solidarity in Spain: snapshot of a committed society" we address the socio-demographic characteristics of donors who collaborate financially with non-profit entities.