We analyse the price and cost competitiveness of export sales, as well as Spain’s current share of exports in a global scenario marked by rising trade tensions where the margins for competition appear to be narrowing.
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With the third year of disbursements of European NGEU funds now behind us. Have expectations been met? Are the investments and reforms being implemented as planned?
Spain is facing 2026 with funding needs that remain high, albeit in a relatively more favourable fiscal context than its main European peers. Despite the reduction of the deficit and public debt as a percentage of GDP, the high nominal levels and a volume of maturities similar to that of 2025 mean that funding needs remain at levels comparable to those of recent years. In this context, the strength of demand for public debt – especially among non-resident investors – allows us to anticipate an orderly absorption of the issuance volume.
How innovative is Spain relative to its European partners? We analyse the evolution of Spain’s position in the European Commission’s innovation index.
CaixaBank’s consumption indicators built using big data techniques and internal card spending data confirm the good dynamics of the catering sector in Spain and its close relationship with tourism.
The available information suggests that Spain’s economic activity has continued to grow at a steady pace during Q1, despite an adverse economic context and inflation hovering at around 3%.
The year-end data for 2023 confirm that, despite a fall in their revenues, businesses have continued to generate lending capacity and to reduce their levels of debt to the lowest they have been in over two decades.
Spain is the country where net wealth has increased the most since the pandemic: from Q4 2019 to Q3 2023 there was a significant increase of 25%, followed closely by Germany with 22%, France with 16% and, further behind, Italy with 6.0%.
Taking advantage of the upcoming year end, we have prepared our traditional Dossier analysing the trends and key elements that will determine the behaviour of the economy in 2026. First, we analyse the resilience of the global economy to the tariff storm and the challenges it faces in a future that will continue to be marked by geopolitics, precisely one year after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. In the second article, we address the European challenge of reducing public debt amid the need to invest in defence, innovation and the green and digital transition. Next, we focus specifically on the outlook for the US economy, which is facing the new year with a mix of strength and vulnerability. Finally, we quantify the forecasts for the Spanish economy, which has shown better-than-expected dynamism in recent quarters in an adverse international context.
Dossier
The keys to the recovery in credit
José Ramon is Head of International Economics & Markets at CaixaBank Research. He has a Master's degree in Financial Markets from ICADE, a Bachelor's degree in Economic Sciences specialising in Economic Analysis and Quantitative Economics from the Complutense University (Madrid), and a Senior Management Programme from IE Business School to his name. Prior to joining CaixaBank, he worked as chief economist at Bankia and Caja Madrid. He has more than 30 years of experience in various fields related to macroeconomic analysis: monetary policy, country risk, the financial system, etc. During that time, he has combined his work as an economic and financial analyst with teaching positions at various institutions: CEU, ICADE, the Business Institute (Instituto de Empresa), etc. He is currently also a professor of Economic Structure at CUNEF.
Jaume is a research assistant in the Spanish Economy department. After graduating in Economics from the University of Warwick, he obtained a Master’s degree in Specialised Economic Analysis at the Barcelona School of Economics. While studying for his Master’s degree, he also worked as a research assistant at Pompeu Fabra University.
Eduard is a data scientist in the Spanish Economics Department. He holds a degree in Physics from the University of Barcelona and a Master’s degree in Intelligent Interactive Systems from Pompeu Fabra University, in which he put into practice artificial intelligence applications, machine learning models and big data techniques. He is part of the first edition of CaixaBank’s Data Talent programme.
Anna is a research assistant in the Department of Spanish Economy. She graduated in Economics from Pompeu Fabra University with a mention in advanced quantitative methods and holds a master's degree in specialized economic analysis, focused on 'International Trade, Finance and Development' from the Barcelona School of Economics.
Catalina is a Research Assistant in the Department of Spanish Economics. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and a Master's degree in Economics and Finance from the Barcelona School of Economics. Before joining CaixaBank, she worked at J.P. Morgan & Chase as a Trade Lifecycle Analyst and at Accenture as a Deal Structuring & Pricing Senior Analyst.
Jesús is Manager of Organisation and Publications at the Strategic Planning and Research Division. He has a PhD in Business Management and Administration from Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), an Industrial Engineering degree with a major in organisation from the Escola Tècnica Superior d'Enginyeria Industrial de Barcelona (ETSEIB), part of the same university, and an MBA from IESE Business School, Universidad de Navarra. Before joining CaixaBank Research he worked as Telemarketing Sales Campaign Manager at CaixaBank.
The military conflict in Iran has reintroduced a significant source of uncertainty into an economic context which, until recently, had been showing notable resilience. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting rise in energy costs necessitate a recalibration of the macroeconomic scenario, both globally and for the Spanish economy. In this edition of the Monthly Report, we present our updated forecasts for 2026 and 2027, analysing how this geopolitical episode is impacting financial markets, the international economy and the Spanish economy. The report is supplemented with other analyses of interest, such as the new (im)balances in the oil market; the impact of the inflationary spike on European households’ well-being; the exposure of Spain’s economic sectors to the energy shock; the persistence of the generation gap in income and wealth, and the challenges facing the public accounts and compliance with European fiscal rules.
In the May issue of the Monthly Report, we include a special dossier to analyse the present and future of the new AI economy, addressing its macroeconomic, business, financial and geopolitical implications. We begin with an overview of the global deployment of AI from a supply-side perspective, analysing the value chain, the role of infrastructure, energy and semiconductor bottlenecks, and the position of different powers in this technological race. We then examine how AI could drive productivity growth, as well as what we know – and do not know – about its effects on employment, emphasising that the leap from microeconomic improvements to macro impacts will be gradual and uneven across countries and sectors. In Spain, AI adoption by firms is advancing rapidly, but remains limited and uneven, posing significant challenges for productivity and for the cohesion of the economy’s productive base. We also address AI governance strategies in the US, China and the EU, and the balances between innovation, regulation and adoption that will shape AI geopolitics in the coming years. Finally, we cover AI in financial markets, the valuations of big tech firms and the risks associated with high concentration and the growing investment needs in infrastructure.
Dossier
The financial cycle and the era of low interest rates
This month we explore in depth the impact and implementation of the Next Generation EU funds in a new Dossier. We begin with an analysis of the status of the implementation of these funds at the European level, followed by an assessment of their impact and future challenges. Next, we examine how they are being managed in Spain, highlighting both current achievements and future expectations. We also address investments beyond NGEU, which are necessary in order for Europe to adapt and thrive in an environment as demanding as the current one. Finally, we compare the US model of economic transformation with the European approach.