| No. 512
The military conflict in Iran has reintroduced a significant source of uncertainty into an economic context which, until recently, had been showing notable resilience. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting rise in energy costs necessitate a recalibration of the macroeconomic scenario, both globally and for the Spanish economy. In this edition of the Monthly Report, we present our updated forecasts for 2026 and 2027, analysing how this geopolitical episode is impacting financial markets, the international economy and the Spanish economy. The report is supplemented with other analyses of interest, such as the new (im)balances in the oil market; the impact of the inflationary spike on European households’ well-being; the exposure of Spain’s economic sectors to the energy shock; the persistence of the generation gap in income and wealth, and the challenges facing the public accounts and compliance with European fiscal rules.
