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In this article we analyse what factors explain China’s recent cycle of low inflation and what risks could transform it into a deflationary crisis.

The inflation rebound of the last two years has led the Bank of Japan to rethink its monetary policy and abandon yield curve control (YCC), the implications of which we discuss below.

The year 2023 began with forecasts mired in pessimism and fears. In the end, things have gone far better than that. Will the same thing happen in 2024?

While income inequality has declined sharply around the world over the past 30 years thanks to the rapid economic growth of emerging countries such as China and India, it has increased in developed countries such as the United States, Germany and even France.

The available information for Q2 suggests a more positive performance than anticipated for the Portuguese economy. In this context, we believe there is room for a slight improvement in our growth projections.

After the experience of recent years, we know how political risk can alter the behaviour of key hypotheses in economic forecasting scenarios.

Despite the encouraging signs of recent months, the international economy will continue to operate in an unstable equilibrium within the forecast horizon.

We use internal CaixaBank data, duly anonymised, to carry out an exploratory analysis on how consumption patterns change after retirement for the case of Spain. The use of these data allows us to identify individuals’ income, consumption and savings with precision, as well as to identify the moment of retirement.

We examine the dynamics and factors that have led us to re-evaluate the outlook for the international economy and the financial markets.