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Consumption has surged since the end of the last state of emergency in May. To a large extent, this consumption is driven by pent-up demand as a result of unprecedented forced savings in the face of the restrictions on activity and mobility that were imposed since the beginning of the pandemic to curb the spread of the virus. Which sectors have seen the biggest rebound in spending? Why have durable goods not picked up as much?

The indicators that have been published during the opening months of the year paint a picture of a buoyant Spanish economy in Q1 2025, albeit with a slightly less vigorous growth rate than in the previous quarter.

After growing by 3.2% in 2024, in 2025 the economy is expected to continue to grow above the euro area average, supported by strong household consumption and the recovery of investment. The major geopolitical challenges and Europe’s weak growth represent the main risk factors.

Despite the reduction of the public deficit to around 2.8% of GDP, the Treasury’s funding needs remain high, with a projected net issuance of 60 billion euros. It will also have to deal with the end of reinvestments by the ECB and the impact of interest rates on public debt.

In this article we analyse whether the savings accumulated during the pandemic are currently acting as a pushback for new consumer lending. If so, will this remain the case into next year?

Execution of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds through the Recovery and Resilience Plan continues to gain traction, although the schedule is tight and the final stretch will require increased efforts. Indeed, by the deadline of 31 August, all investments funded with grants and loans need to have been allocated through the resolution of the relevant calls and tenders, and compliance with all milestones must be demonstrated to the European Commission. Also, Spain must submit payment requests before 30 September, while the Commission will have a deadline of 31 December to make the disbursements, as it will only have until then to certify the investments, that is, to verify that the money has been allocated to the committed projects.

We analyse individuals’ electricity bill direct debit payments made from CaixaBank accounts to determine how the increase in prices affected the finances of Spanish households.