In the current expansionary cycle of the Spanish real estate market, there is a marked increase in the dispersion of house prices across the country, unlike in the real estate boom prior to 2008. Since 2015, tourist municipalities and large cities have led the growth in prices. In contrast, rural areas and small towns have experienced more moderate price increases. This behaviour reinforces the view that, in this cycle, price formation is responding to the specific supply and demand dynamics of each area. In major cities, the strong price pressures in the centres are spreading to increasingly municipalities in the metropolitan areas.
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The Spanish real estate market accelerated in 2024, especially in the second half of the year, largely thanks to the fall in interest rates. This was added to a series of factors that are keeping housing demand very dynamic, including significant migration flows, rapid job creation and strong foreign demand. On the other hand, the supply of new housing is beginning to awaken, but it remains insufficient to address the high demand. This mismatch between strong demand and scarce supply is driving up house prices – a trend that we expect to continue in 2025.
House prices and the number of sales have surged since mid-last year in Spain, although there are significant geographical differences. In 2024, house prices grew more vigorously in the most expensive areas, thus widening the price gap between municipalities and regions, and this is causing some of the demand to begin to shift towards more affordable areas. At the provincial level, temperature could be a relevant factor: sales are growing more rapidly in the cooler regions of the Northwest of the peninsula, while the traditional tourist areas are experiencing a more gradual increase in demand. In addition, the sharp rise in house prices in the major cities is causing a shift in housing demand towards more affordable peripheral areas, where house prices are expected to experience rapid growth in 2025.
La economía española ha alcanzado ya el punto de inflexión que tanto estábamos esperando. Todos los indicadores económicos del 2T 2021 muestran un notable rebote de la actividad económica al levantarse gran parte de las restricciones a la actividad y la movilidad gracias a la aceleración de la campaña de vacunación.
Spain’s housing market ended 2025 with exceptionally high levels of activity, exceeding 714,000 transactions, the highest figure since 2007. The strength of demand – driven by population growth, improved purchasing power and favourable financial conditions – sustained high activity, particularly in the first half of the year. However, on the supply side, significant limitations persist: despite the increase in permits, the construction of new homes remains insufficient to keep up with new household creation. This imbalance between supply and demand is exerting significant upward pressure on prices, which are accelerating across the board, particularly in the most dynamic and touristic areas. Looking ahead to 2026-2027, transactions are expected to stabilise at high levels and there will be a gradual improvement in supply, although it will remain insufficient. As such, prices will continue to rise, albeit at a more moderate rate.
At this point in the pandemic, no-one is in any doubt that the economic scenario largely depends on how the health situation will develop. After a period of relative normality during the summer, a large number of European countries have had to step up restrictions on people’s movements and business activity. The economic impact of this second wave is considerable, although clearly less than the effect of the strict lockdowns imposed in Q2. This situation has worsened the economic outlook for the beginning of 2021, although the outlook for the spring is more promising with hopes being placed on the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine and other measures to help strengthen the health strategy (such as the low-cost, rapid testing of large numbers of the population).
Activity in Spain’s real estate market is recovering from its extraordinary slump during the first lockdown. In Q3 2020, house sales and new building permits recovered much of the ground lost, a positive trend we expect to consolidate in 2021. Moreover, the impact of the crisis on house prices has been relatively moderate so far, although we expect these will continue to adjust in the latter part of 2020 and the first half of 2021. In particular, CaixaBank Research’s new house price forecasting models at the level of province, based on large amounts of information (big data) and applying machine learning techniques, predict that house prices will fall in 7 out of 10 Spanish provinces in 2021 and grow very moderately in the rest.
However, it is important to remember that the economic impact of COVID-19 is huge and the effects of the pandemic on the sector will take time to disappear completely. The Recovery Plan for Europe, or Next Generation EU (NGEU), allocated a substantial sum of 750 billion euros, will be decisive in helping to boost the recovery. One of the EU’s main targets, which this recovery plan aims to support significantly, is the ecological transition to become climate-neutral by 2050. In the EU, buildings are responsible for emitting about 40% of the gases that cause global warming. The involvement and commitment of the construction industry is therefore essential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the agreed targets, while more energy-efficient «smart» buildings also support another of the Commission’s key targets: digital transition.
These European funds represent a unique opportunity to modernise Spain’s economy, which will receive around 72 billion euros in non-refundable transfers between 2021 and 2026, equivalent to 5.8% of its GDP in 2019. About 6% of the European NGEU funds will be aimed at renovating housing, tripling public investment in this area. In particular, the government plans to recondition 500,000 homes between 2021 and 2023. This target, if achieved, would be very positive for the sector but it is highly ambitious since it requires multiplying the current reconditioning rate by six in just three years.
In addition to renovations, another priority for housing policy over the coming years is the improvement of social housing. The severe economic and social impact of the COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the need to provide a large number of rented social housing to resolve the current shortage and be able to ensure the most vulnerable sections of the population have somewhere to live. Policies that should drive a green, social and digital recovery.
According to estimates by CaixaBank Research, Spain has accumulated a housing deficit, now exceeding 730,000 units, as a result of rapid household formation and an insufficient response from new construction. In this article, we review the extent of this mismatch and its impact on recent patterns in house prices, which are showing increasing tension across much of the country. We also observe that the construction of new homes is not accelerating, precisely in the regions where the gap between supply and demand is most pronounced, exacerbating the imbalances and prolonging the pressure on prices. Finally, we examine the factors limiting the recovery of supply (from rising construction costs to regulatory restrictions and the lack of land designated for development, in addition to infrastructure issues) and we anticipate little improvement in the short term in the sector’s capacity to meet current housing needs.
House prices have risen considerably in recent years and the first signs of overvaluation are starting to appear in cities such as Madrid and Barcelona, as well as some tourist spots. But the situation is very different in less urban areas, where the recovery in the real estate sector began later and is much slower. As a result, regional divergences in the price and affordability of housing are widening.
The European real estate market has seen several years of strong growth. In fact, since early 2016, house prices in the EU have risen by 4.6% year-on-year on average, outperforming wages and GDP growth. This upward trend has been widespread across countries and also large cities. This article examines the factors underpinning this trend and whether it poses any risks.
Foreign demand has been one of the factors supporting Spain's real estate sector throughout its recovery. House purchases by foreigners have tripled in just 10 years, reaching the substantial figure of 65,300 homes in 2018, 12.6% of the total. This article looks at the foreign demand for housing in Spain as well as factors that will affect the trend over the coming quarters.
Los jóvenes son uno de los colectivos que encuentran mayores obstáculos para acceder a una vivienda en España, junto con la población inmigrante y los hogares en los quintiles más bajos de renta. Unos obstáculos que son aún mayores en las grandes ciudades y en las zonas turísticas, y que afectan a la vivienda tanto en propiedad como en alquiler. La evolución del mercado inmobiliario y la situación de los jóvenes en el mercado laboral son las principales causas de problema, y la solución, que no es sencilla, pasa por incrementar la oferta de vivienda asequible de forma significativa. Lo hablamos con Judit Montoriol, economista invitada en el programa de hoy y coordinadora de nuestro Informe Sectorial de Inmobiliario. Con ella compartimos también, al final del capítulo, las claves económicas del mes para España, Europa y el mundo.
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More and more people are renting their home. In the past 5 years, the percentage of households renting their main home has increased significantly: from 16.1% in 2013 to 17.8% in 2018. This strong demand for rental property has pushed up prices, especially in large cities and tourist resorts, although in the past few quarters there has been a slight moderation. With a view to the future, the demand for rented accommodation is expected to remain strong and, to avoid more pressure on prices, supply will have to grow in line with this demand.
The sector has seen a slowdown in 2019 as the economic outlook has deteriorated. In 2020 the trend will still be positive although the rate of growth will ease.
The strong growth in the supply of housing persists, especially in areas with the highest demand. The sector will continue to expand over the next few quarters.
En este episodio de "Economía Exprés", damos la bienvenida al otoño analizando algunos desafíos a los que se enfrenta la economía española desde una dimensión más social: el impacto del envejecimiento de la población, la situación de la clase media y el déficit de vivienda en España. Junto a Josep Mestres Domènech, economista de CaixaBank Research, exploramos cómo la longevidad y la baja natalidad están transformando la estructura demográfica e impactando a la economía, el papel de la inmigración y las políticas públicas para afrontar estos retos, y la realidad de la clase media española tras años de crisis y posterior recuperación. Además, abordamos el momento actual del mercado inmobiliario y estrenamos la sección "Más allá del dato", donde descubrimos la dimensión humana y ética de la economía a través de los invitados al programa. Un episodio imprescindible para entender algunos de los grandes retos sociales y económicos que marcarán el futuro de España.
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The problem of housing affordability, both rental and ownership, has worsened in recent years and is particularly affecting certain groups such as young people. Solving this issue is no easy task and requires action to be taken on multiple fronts and over an extended time horizon. Public-private collaboration is essential for boosting the supply of affordable housing, and industrialised construction shows promise as a new way to help overcome the major challenges that the sector is facing, such as attracting skilled and female labour, while promoting more digital and sustainable construction methods.
The rental housing market has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. Its sharp price rises, much bigger than the increase in wage income, has highlighted the economic vulnerability of households living in rented accommodation. These households tend to have a lower-than-average income level and a high percentage of them spend more than 40% of their income on housing-related payments. To redress this worrying situation, much-needed economic policy measures have been taken to increase the supply of affordable housing. However, other types of policies have also been proposed, such as rent caps in stressed market areas, although their effectiveness is limited judging by experiences in other countries.
Activity in the real estate market is recovering from its extraordinary slump between March and June. House sales and new building permits have regained much of the ground lost in Q3 2020, a trend we expect to consolidate in 2021. House prices, whose trend is still weak but without any extreme corrections, are expected to follow a similar trend in the coming quarters, ending 2021 with a decline of around 2%.
The Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (PRTR) for the Spanish economy could be an important catalyst for the real estate sector. With the help of European funds, the government plans to recondition half a million homes between 2021 and 2023, with the aim of improving their energy efficiency and thereby helping to achieve the agreed decarbonisation targets. The General State Budget (PGE) also proposes a notable increase in the funds allocated to increase the amount of rented social housing, a policy that is crucial as rents have become even less affordable for the most vulnerable members of the population.