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GDP beat expectations in Q4 2024 with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5%, placing growth for the year as a whole at 1.9%. The good performance in the final stretch of 2024 introduces upside risks into CaixaBank Research’s current forecast for 2025 (2.3%), due to the knock-on effect.
To date, the investments already approved as part of the Portuguese Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) amount to 12,249 million euros, compared to total planned investments of 16,644 million euros. This represents an approval rate of 74%, which in principle looks promising in terms of getting the most out of the NGEU funds that Portugal will receive up until 2026.
The Portuguese banking system faces the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis with a more resilient position and greater room for manoeuvre in dealing with stress situations.