• Digitalisation of the agrifood sector: what does Twitter tell us?

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    Technology is advancing at a frenetic pace and offers the agrifood chain a large number of opportunities to make its production more efficient and sustainable. Moreover, the arrival of COVID-19 has shown that the most digitalised companies were able to continue their activities more readily than the rest. In this article we examine the degree of popularity of the different digital technologies used in the primary sector and agrifood industry based on a text analysis of over 2 million tweets on Twitter. All these technologies are essential to create a connected ecosystem that will make up the Food Chain 4.0 of the future.

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    The unexpected arrival of the pandemic has shown that the most digitalised companies were more prepared to adapt to the new situation and were able to continue to operate much more smoothly than the rest. There is no doubt that, in this new environment, the digital transformation of companies is now unavoidable in order to boost their competitiveness.

    Big data, robotics, the internet of things and blockchain are just some examples of the new digital technologies gradually being adapted by firms, particularly in the agrifood sector. Technology is advancing at a frenetic pace and is offering the agrifood chain a large number of opportunities to produce more efficiently and sustainably. However, statistical information on the degree to which such technologies have been taken up, and the most comprehensive official statistical source1, does not provide information on the primary sector. Below we present a novel analysis of the «popularity»  of new digital technologies in the agrifood sector based on data from Twitter.

    • 1. Survey on the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) and e-commerce in companies, compiled by the National Statistics Institute.
    Twitter as a source of information to detect future trends

    Data from Twitter can be extremely valuable in detecting new trends as it allows us to analyse the popularity of certain terms according to how frequently they appear in tweets. However, it is true that «talking about something» is not the same as successfully implementing the various digital technologies in a company's recurring operations. For this reason the results presented below should be interpreted simply as an indication of new trends that may be taking root in agrifood companies.

    Data from Twitter allow us to analyse how popular the different digital technologies

    are in the agrifood sector according to how often they are mentioned in tweets.

    For this study, data was processed from over 24 million tweets sent by individual users and digital media during the period 2017-2019. Among these, 2 million corresponded to the agrifood sector. Using natural language processing techniques, the tweets were categorised according to mentions of different digital technologies and to the business sector.2 The key to obtaining relevant data from social media is to first define «seed» words or phrases to identify texts corresponding to each of the business sectors, as well as «seed» words or phrases related to the different digital technologies of interest.3 Using a machine-learning algorithm, other words and phrases related to the concept in question that were not initially included were also identified, thus broadening the spectrum of texts analysed. At this stage, it is important to carefully screen for polysemous words (i.e. those that have more than one meaning, such as the word «reserva» in Spanish, which can be used to refer to a hotel booking as well as an aged wine).

    • 2. This analysis was carried out in collaboration with Citibeats, a company specialising in unstructured natural language processing.
    • 3. For example, the «seed» woods and phrases used to identify big data were: analytics, arquitectura de sistemas (system architecture), data mining, database, inteligencia empresarial (business intelligence), Python and SQL, among others (as well as the term big data per se).
    What is the degree of digitalisation of the agrifood sector according to Twitter?

    To assess the agrifood sector's degree of digitalisation according to data from Twitter, we first need to know how common tweets about digitalisation are in other business sectors. The most digitalised industry according to our analysis is the information and communication technologies (ICT) sector: 3.2% of the sector's tweets contain terms related to digitalisation, a result that is not surprising given the very nature of the industry. Next comes finance and insurance with 2.7% of the tweets.

    This percentage is obviously lower in the primary sector at 0.6% but it is similar to the 0.7% for professional, scientific and technical activities. In the case of the agrifood industry, the percentage of tweets on digitalisation is only 0.3%, very close to the basic manufacturing sector (which includes the textile, wood, paper and graphic arts industries), with the lowest percentage among the sectors analysed, 0.2%.

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    Which digital technologies are most popular in the agrifood sector according to Twitter?

    The wealth of data obtained from Twitter allow us to identify the most popular digital tools in each business sector according to how frequently they are mentioned in the tweets examined. According to our analysis, a large proportion of the primary sector's tweets about digitalisation tend to include issues related to big data (45% of all tweets about digitalisation). One clear example of the application of big data in the sector can be found in «precision agriculture» techniques which require large amounts of data to be analysed to optimise decisions and thereby increase production and, in turn, ensure sustainability. These techniques are used, for instance, to calculate the irrigation requirements of crops by taking into account climatic conditions (sunlight, wind, temperature and relative humidity) and crop characteristics (species, state of development, planting density, etc.). To carry out this calculation, real-time updated meteorological data, a large computing capacity and fast data transmission speeds are all required for an automatic irrigation system to be properly adjusted. This technology helps to use water more efficiently, a highly relevant aspect in areas with a Mediterranean climate that are extremely vulnerable to climate change and where water is in short supply.

    Big data, the internet of things and robotics are the most popular technologies in the primary sector,

    indispensable for advancing the application of precision agriculture techniques and smart automated farming.

    Other popular technologies in the primary sector are the internet of things (16% of tweets) and robotics, including drones (10% of tweets). The new digital technologies promise to revolutionise the field of agriculture and stockbreeding by the middle of this century, the same as the mechanisation of farming in the xxi century. Agricultural Machinery 4.0 (which is closer to the robots in science fiction films than to the tractors we are used to seeing on all farms in the country) helps to increase productivity whilst also improving working conditions in the field. This trend towards more automated agricultural tasks has become stronger in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, as the difficulty in recruiting seasonal workers due to international mobility restrictions has led to increased interest in robotics and agricultural automation. In fact, companies that manufacture robots for agriculture have seen a sharp increase in orders, such as robots that pick strawberries while removing mould with ultraviolet light.14 

    The use of drones warrants particular attention as this has grown exponentially in recent years and applications are increasingly widespread: from the early detection of pests and the aerial inspection of large areas of crops to locating wild boar with heat-sensitive cameras to prevent the spread of African swine fever to domestic pigs.5

    • 4. See Financial Times Agritech «Farm robots given Covid-19 boost», 30 August 2020.
    • 5. See http://www.catedragrobank.udl.cat/es/actualidad/drones-contra-jabalies

    The popularity of various digital technologies in the agrifood sector

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    Blockchain is the technology that stands out most in the food sector (30% of the total number of tweets on the sector's digitalisation) and this comes as no surprise as it has many different applications for the food and beverage industry. Producing a chain of unalterable, reliable records, blockchain makes it possible to guarantee the complete traceability of products throughout all the links in the food chain. Simply scanning a QR code provides access to all the data regarding the origin, production method, veterinary treatments received, ingredients used, etc. A large number of agrifood companies are already experimenting with blockchain as it offers clear benefits in terms of transparency regarding origin, product quality and food safety, aspects that are increasingly valued by consumers. Blockchain technology is also being used to limit food waste, another essential challenge for the sector.

    Blockchain enables the digital verification of food products,

    making them traceable throughout the links in the food chain.

    Compared with other sectors, which tools are particularly significant for the agrifood industry?

    There are some digital technologies that are not very popular across all economic sectors, perhaps because they have a more limited or specific range of application. These are technologies that, despite having a low percentage of tweets in absolute terms according to our study, may be relatively popular for a particular sector compared with the rest.

    To detect such cases, we have calculated a new metric, namely a concentration index which takes into account the relative popularity of technologies in a sector compared with the rest of the sectors.6 By using this methodology, we have found that the primary sector continues to stand out in terms of big data. Specifically, the primary sector concentrates 9.2% of the total number of tweets mentioning big data made by all sectors, a much larger proportion than the 3.1% share of primary sector tweets out of the total number of tweets analysed (as can be seen in the following table, in this case the concentration index is 3). We have also determined that the sector is particularly interested in the internet of things, as already mentioned, but have discovered that nanotechnology is also a relatively popular technology in the primary sector. In other words, although only 3.8% of the tweets in the primary sector deal with nanotechnology, this percentage is high compared with the 1.7% share of nanotechnology tweets out of the total (in other words, this technology is not very popular in general across all sectors but is slightly more popular in the primary sector than the others). This find is not surprising since genetic engineering is one of the fields in which technology has advanced most in order to boost crop yields. For example, by optimising the yield of vines it is possible to develop plants that are much more resistant to extreme weather conditions and pests.

    • 6. The concentration index is calculated as the ratio between (1) the percentage of tweets related to a particular technology and sector out of the total tweets for this technology, and (2) the percentage of tweets by a sector out of the total tweets of all sectors. Values above 1 indicate the technology is relatively more popular in that sector.

    Concentration index for tweets related to each technology in comparison with the other sectors

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    Finally, virtual and augmented reality is also a relatively popular technology in
    the agrifood industry.
    Specifically, the agrifood industry concentrates 6.2% of the total virtual and augmented reality tweets made by all sectors, a percentage that more than doubles the 2.5% share of primary sector tweets out of the total number of tweets analysed (the concentration index is equal to 2.5 in this case). This technology uses virtual environments (virtual reality) or incorporates virtual elements into reality (augmented reality) that provide additional knowledge and data that can be used to optimise processes. At first it may be surprising that this technology is relatively popular in the agrifood industry but its uses are spreading as the industry implements digital technologies in its production processes, in the so-called Industry 4.0. One specific example of how this technology is used is in repairing breakdowns. When a fault occurs, operators can use augmented reality goggles to follow the steps contained in virtual instruction manuals that are projected onto the lens to help resolve the incident. The glasses recognise the different parts of the machine and visually indicate to operators where they should act to solve the specific problem.

    There are numerous examples of new digital technologies being applied in the agrifood sector. We are witnessing a revolution that is destined to transform the different links in the food chain: from the exploitation of data and the use of drones to make harvesting more efficient to implementing blockchain technology to improve the traceability of the final products that reach our homes. In short, the future will bring us the Food Chain 4.0, a totally connected ecosystem from the field to the table.

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Bitcoin: speculative bubble or currency of the future?

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Antonio Escoda
Economist
March 11th, 2014

The last few weeks have been complicated for the bitcoin, the virtual currency created in 2009 by an anonymous programmer under the pseudonym of Satoshi Nakamoto. The key feature of this currency is its peer-to-peer payment system (user to user, without intermediaries) based on open source software administered by a community of volunteers. There is no central authority or central bank managing the system and no-one owns it. Its acceptance as a means of payment ultimately depends on the confidence generated by the currency. However, doubts have emerged regarding its security with the disappearance of MtGox, to date the main platform for trading and handling bitcoins, victim of a massive theft by hackers.

Operating with bitcoins requires both parties in a transaction to have accounts called «bitcoin wallets». To transfer the currency, sellers must give buyers their password and buyers send bitcoins to sellers using a software application. The bitcoin user network provides the computing power of its members' devices for the system to verify that the vendor is the legitimate owner of the transferred bitcoins and to register the transaction. This process, whose aim is to guarantee the system's security, involves the solution of a complex mathematical problem and can take from one minute to one hour for very large transactions. Users helping to solve this problem are rewarded with new bitcoins (called «digital mining»).

Bitcoins can also be acquired through other exchange platforms operating in real time. After the sudden closure of MtGox, Bitstamp has emerged as the most popular platform to handle and trade in bitcoins against other currencies.

A virtual currency such as the bitcoin can have several advantages. Firstly, its low transaction costs in comparison with the commissions charged for credit card payments or the costs associated with a bank transfer. However, the security offered by the bitcoin system is still not comparable to that of traditional payment systems (for example, it's more vulnerable to theft via hacking). Another feature valued by its users (particularly by those who devote themselves to illegal activities) is the almost anonymity in transactions and the fact that bank account numbers or credit card details do not need to be shared. Moreover, users can also generate several different bitcoin addresses to differentiate and isolate each transaction. Lastly, another attractive feature of the system is that it has been designed in such a way so that the supply of bitcoins (the total number of units in circulation) grows at a pre-established rate until reaching a maximum of 21 million (the current supply totals 12.3 million units). This undertaking to limit the supply of currency in circulation, unlike the practice of central banks which continuously increase the money supply, aims to anchor the currency's long-term value and thereby encourage its role as a store of value and its use as a medium of exchange.

Bitcoin use as a medium of exchange is still very limited. At present, on average 42 transactions are carried out per minute (while Visa carries out more than 165,000 per minute). Nevertheless, the bitcoin's value rose dramatically in 2013, with high associated volatility: from 10 dollars/BTC to more than 1,200 dollars/BTC. Its value is now slightly below 550 dollars/BTC after the hacker attacks suffered on some bitcoin exchange platforms and the closure of Mt Gox. The first transaction with bitcoins was carried out in 2010: two pizzas for 10,000 BTC. The price of these pizzas at the current bitcoin value would be close to 5.5 million dollars.

The bitcoin's value basically reflects speculation on its future value. As with all fiduciary currencies, i.e. currencies not backed by precious metals, the bitcoin will have long-term value as long as it is commonly accepted as a medium of exchange and a store of value. The greater its acceptance, the more it will tend to be worth (in its equivalent in dollars or euros), given a certain quantity of bitcoins in circulation. But the degree of future acceptance is an unknown factor. The high volatility of its value largely reflects changes in the perceived degree of acceptance. For example, the day that Ben Bernanke declared, in the US Senate, that the bitcoin could have a promising future, its value soared to above 1,000 dollars. Days later, when the Chinese authorities banned their banks from processing payments in bitcoins, its value plummeted to below 600 dollars. Thailand and Korea's decision to prohibit the use of bitcoins in their countries also hit its value hard at the time.

More recently, the attacks suffered by some bitcoin exchanges have lead to refunds being suspended on three platforms (MTGox, Bitstamp and BTC-e), as well as its value falling from 900 dollars/BTC to 550 dollars/BTC. Trading on Bitstamp and BTC-e returned to normal levels a few days after this suspension but Mt Gox has stopped trading indefinitely and has left hundreds of thousands of users trapped with around 744,000 bitcoins on the platform, the equivalent to more than 400 million dollars at its current value.

In addition to its vulnerability to computer theft, the bitcoin has a significant drawback compared with other currencies that are also fiduciary but legal tender: by law, no-one is forced to accept it. In other words, it does not have the backing of a state that has declared it acceptable as a medium of exchange and a legal way to settle debts (including the payment of taxes). On the other hand, the bitcoin is also subject to competition from other virtual currencies. These seem destined to become more important given the progressive rise in the use of the internet and social networks, the larger volume of electronic trade and the proliferation of digital goods.

Traditional financial institutions and large technology firms may want to introduce their own virtual currency systems. For these systems to be widely accepted, they must take some of the key virtues of the bitcoin (an agile medium of exchange with low transaction costs) and generate enough confidence for their exchange rate against legal tender currencies to remain relatively stable. These systems, potentially more secure, faster and with lower transaction costs (in terms of lower energy consumption or computer memory) and which would inspire more confidence, could take over and lead to the bitcoins in circulation plummeting in value. They will be an acid test for bitcoins, whether they are worth 1,000 dollars or 100.

Antonio Escoda

Economic Analysis Unit, Research Department, "la Caixa"

Antonio Escoda
Economist
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