Evolution of the international financial markets and evaluation of the main events and economic indicators of the previous day session. Available in English.
In the last session of the week investors traded with a risk-off mood amid escalating tensions around Russia and Ukraine. During the weekend, the White House accepted a summit between Biden and Putin as long as Russia does not invade Ukraine, a move that could help deescalating tensions.
Financial markets recorded yesterday another session dominated by risk-off sentiment, fueled by uncertainty around geopolitical tensions involving Ukraine, hawkish comments by central bank officials and disappointing labour market data in the US (new jobless claims rose to 248.000 for the week ending Feb 12).
A cautious approach was retaken by investors on Wednesday, driven by uncertainty on the geopolitical risk involving Ukraine and the exit strategy of major central banks in advanced economies. These headwinds more than offset better-than-expected data for January in the US (+3.8% m/m for retail sales and 1.4% for industrial production).
Investors traded with an optimistic mood on Tuesday, following news that the Russian government has started to remove some of its military troops near Ukraine after the completion of drills.
Financial markets started the week with a risk-off session, fueled by the escalation in tensions involving Ukraine. The rising geopolitical risk is adding to investors’ concerns about the persistence of inflationary pressures and the prospect of a more aggressive withdrawal of monetary policy stimuli by major central banks.
Investors closed last week trading cautiously, increasing their bets that the jump in inflation is likely to force central banks across advanced economies to deliver a more aggressive withdrawal of monetary stimuli. Financial markets are pricing in by yearend more than 150 bp hikes in the US and more than 50 bp hikes in the eurozone.
In yesterday’s session investors consolidated their bets on a tighter monetary policy in the US following January’s CPI data. Headline and core inflation rose by 0.5pp to 7.5% and 6.0%, respectively, while consensus was expecting an increase of 0.3 and 0.4pp.
In yesterday's session investors' sentiment continued to improve moderately amid mixed comments by Federal Reserve and ECB members. In the US, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that she expects inflation to ease during the course of 2022, as the Fed tightens credit conditions.
In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment remained cautiously optimistic, with the focus still on the pace of monetary policy tightening in advanced economies, corporate results (in the US, 76% of the companies that have released their profits have beaten consensus estimates) and geopolitical developments.
Investors started the week trading with caution as they continued to digest the positive figures of the January's employment report in the US and took positions ahead of Thursday's release of CPI inflation. In the euro area, ECB comments moderated financial markets expectations for a big monetary policy tightening.