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In our revision of the international forecast scenario, we maintain the assumption that the bilateral tariff between the US and the EU will be 10%. We also maintain the assumption that the tariffs between the US and China will reach a level of 60% in 2025 (an increase of 45 pps compared to December 2024), but now this increase is not anticipated to take place as gradually as we previously thought.

The truce in the tariff tensions between Washington and Beijing ended up fuelling a renewed risk appetite in May. However, the optimism was gradually overshadowed as the month progressed by the predictable fiscal deterioration in the US and other developed economies, as well as by the persistent volatility in Trump’s trade policy.

We expand on the assessment of the economic impact of the blackout on 28 April in Spain by taking a cross-section by sector and autonomous community region, based on the analysis of internal CaixaBank data.

Geopolitics marked the beginning of the year in the financial markets. The resurgence of tensions, from Venezuela to Iran, and the diplomatic clash between the US and Europe over Greenland generated risk aversion and triggered a temporary spike in market volatility. 

We analyse recent developments and the outlook for public debt in the major advanced economies. While the United States, France and Belgium will continue to see an increase in their ratios, Japan and the United Kingdom could stabilise them. In contrast, the euro area periphery shows favourable conditions for reducing its debt, although it will require significant fiscal effort.

The Spanish economy successfully navigated the trade and geopolitical tensions affecting the global environment in 2025, achieving growth of 2.8%. This figure clearly surpasses both our forecast at the start of year, which was 2.3%, and the euro area’s growth, which stood at 1.5%. This GDP growth was driven by the momentum of domestic demand, which offset the deterioration of external demand resulting from the surge in imports.

The Spanish economy continues to advance at a dynamic pace. For several years now, it has maintained relatively high growth, both from a historical perspective and in comparison with most developed economies.

The National Statistics Institute’s upward revision, combined with the buoyancy we have continued to observe in Q3, has led CaixaBank Research to revise its growth forecast for 2025 from 2.4% to 2.9%. With only three months remaining until the end of the year, it seems unlikely that growth will be far off 3%.

CaixaBank’s internal data allow us to assess in detail which groups are particularly suffering as a result of the crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic and to what extent public sector transfers are proving effective in protecting them.

In the run-up to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Donald Trump’s Asian tour has led to a certain thaw in US-China trade relations, in a quarter marked by contrasts among advanced economies and dynamism among emerging markets.

In a context marked by geopolitical tensions, persistent uncertainty and tariff threats, the global economy continues to show remarkable resilience. 

The economy continues to enjoy strong growth, with domestic demand acquiring a more prominent role, largely supported by the buoyancy of the labour market. Electricity keeps inflation at around 3%, while house sales buck the upward trend for the first time since 2024.

In October, the main stock market indices reached all-time highs, the dollar appreciated, sovereign debt yields declined and euro area peripheral spreads narrowed. Commodities exhibited disparity between the rise in metals and the decline in crude oil prices. The central banks fulfilled expectations: the Fed cut rates and the ECB kept them unchanged.