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The resistance exhibited by international economic activity, the reduction of uncertainty and the improvement in growth projections indicate a better immediate outlook. However, the world economy is not out of the woods yet. 

September has been a month of transition in the financial markets, characterised by increased volatility and significant movements in risk assets. Monetary policy decisions, especially the US Federal Reserve’s meeting, has set the tone for the month, together with the process of adapting to the new trade context amid higher tariffs.

Technological change will change the payment system as we know it, and blockchain technology will probably play a very important role in this process by facilitating the emergence of digital currencies. What are the key aspects of the technologies that will enable this transformation? Which cryptocurrencies are most likely to succeed?

The truce in the tariff tensions between Washington and Beijing ended up fuelling a renewed risk appetite in May. However, the optimism was gradually overshadowed as the month progressed by the predictable fiscal deterioration in the US and other developed economies, as well as by the persistent volatility in Trump’s trade policy.

We expand on the assessment of the economic impact of the blackout on 28 April in Spain by taking a cross-section by sector and autonomous community region, based on the analysis of internal CaixaBank data.

The latest update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook highlights stable growth expectations for the global economy (GDP +3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027). Technological dynamism, particularly investment related to AI, continues to sustain economic activity, especially in the US, offsetting the adverse effects of persistent trade tensions and high geopolitical uncertainty. In this environment, the IMF anticipates a gradual slowdown in international trade (+2.6% in 2026 vs. 4.1% in 2025), and economic activity is showing uneven dynamics. 

We analyse recent developments and the outlook for public debt in the major advanced economies. While the United States, France and Belgium will continue to see an increase in their ratios, Japan and the United Kingdom could stabilise them. In contrast, the euro area periphery shows favourable conditions for reducing its debt, although it will require significant fiscal effort.

The Spanish economy successfully navigated the trade and geopolitical tensions affecting the global environment in 2025, achieving growth of 2.8%. This figure clearly surpasses both our forecast at the start of year, which was 2.3%, and the euro area’s growth, which stood at 1.5%. This GDP growth was driven by the momentum of domestic demand, which offset the deterioration of external demand resulting from the surge in imports.

The National Statistics Institute’s upward revision, combined with the buoyancy we have continued to observe in Q3, has led CaixaBank Research to revise its growth forecast for 2025 from 2.4% to 2.9%. With only three months remaining until the end of the year, it seems unlikely that growth will be far off 3%.

In the run-up to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Donald Trump’s Asian tour has led to a certain thaw in US-China trade relations, in a quarter marked by contrasts among advanced economies and dynamism among emerging markets.

In a context marked by geopolitical tensions, persistent uncertainty and tariff threats, the global economy continues to show remarkable resilience. 

The economy continues to enjoy strong growth, with domestic demand acquiring a more prominent role, largely supported by the buoyancy of the labour market. Electricity keeps inflation at around 3%, while house sales buck the upward trend for the first time since 2024.

In October, the main stock market indices reached all-time highs, the dollar appreciated, sovereign debt yields declined and euro area peripheral spreads narrowed. Commodities exhibited disparity between the rise in metals and the decline in crude oil prices. The central banks fulfilled expectations: the Fed cut rates and the ECB kept them unchanged.