The outbreak of war in Ukraine has overshadowed the positive outlook we were forecasting for the Spanish economy in 2022. While, at the end of last year, some factors had already appeared on the scene that hindered the economic recovery, the armed conflict in Ukraine has become the main focus of attention and the major conditioning factor for short-term economic developments.
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The outlook for the Spanish economy and its sectors is positive. We expect to see a higher growth rate in sectors linked to the digital transition, such as ICT and professional services, as well as in sectors where the Spanish economy is highly competitive, such as the pharmaceutical and tourism sectors.
The most recent real estate market data show that the upward trend in demand and house prices has been accentuated in the early stages of 2022, in line with the positive inertia that the Spanish economy has maintained despite the adverse context. However, in the medium term the outlook is that the real estate market will tend to slow down.
Nuestro director de Economía española explica el potencial de los datos en tiempo real y cómo los estamos utilizando en CaixaBank Research para monitorizar la economía. El vídeo forma parte de la colección «Formación sobre ruedas», una iniciativa de Accionistas CaixaBank para fomentar la cultura financiera.
Do you want to know the trends of the Spanish economy in an easy and intuitive way? To monitor wages, consumption, tourism, housing affordability and inequality in Spain, by region, age, sex or income level? In this video we show you how CaixaBank Research's Real-time Economics portal works and why it is pioneering in the processing and visualization of internal data.
Oriol Aspachs, Director de Estudios de CaixaBank Research, participó el 18 de noviembre en el XII Encuentro Retail de CaixaBank Payment & Consumer, analizando las perspectivas económicas globales, de España y del consumo.
The COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting economic activity and the real estate sector is also feeling the effects, albeit not as much as other sectors. Specifically, at CaixaBank Research we expect GDP to fall by between 13% and 15% in 2020 and not to return to pre-crisis levels until the end of 2023. However, despite the seriousness of the situation and the high uncertainty regarding how the pandemic will develop, it is important to note that the sector is supported by a much stronger foundation than in the previous crisis of 2008.
In this article we use a novel approach to analyse the potential of Spanish renters who could afford to buy a property. For Spain as a whole, we estimate that around 49% of renters have a high enough income to purchase a home. However, only 13% have the necessary savings. While there are significant differences between provinces and municipalities, in all regions it is clear that insufficient savings capacity is the main constraint faced by renters to buying their own home.
The citrus fruit sector is one of the most important in the Spanish agrifood system and a leading player in international export markets. Its production structure is typically atomised, making it more difficult to modernise the farms, and the sector has some important challenges to tackle. In particular, strong competition from non-EU countries at a time when production costs are rising sharply, accentuated by a prolonged drought and the war in Ukraine. In any case, the figures suggest that Spain’s citrus production continues to be the most competitive in the world, thanks to its hard-won reputation as a product of the highest quality produced under the strictest health standards.
This winter’s drought has highlighted one of the most important challenges facing Spain’s agrifood sector: improving how water resources are used given the prospect of their availability becoming more limited.
Nuestro economista Adrià Morron participó en un webinar para Accionistas CaixaBank en el que explicó en detalle cuáles son nuestras perspectivas de tipos de interés, en momento clave para la política monetaria del BCE y la Fed.
Retransmisión del acto organizado por “El Periódico” y “El Periódico de España el 17 de junio de 2023 en el que Judit Montoriol (CaixaBank Research) presentó las principales conclusiones del “Informe Sectorial Inmobiliario 2S 2023” y participó en el posterior debate sobre “Los desafíos del sector inmobiliario en clave económica 2023” junto con Carolina Roca (Asprima), Julián Salcedo (Colegio de Economistas de Madrid), David Martínez (Aedas Homes) y Antonio de la Fuente (Colliers).
En este episodio especial de Economía Exprés, celebramos los 500 números del Informe Mensual de CaixaBank Research con otro invitado de primera: José Ramón Díez, director de Economías y Mercados Internacionales. Conversamos con él sobre los primeros 100 días de Trump en la Casa Blanca y su impacto en la economía global, el nuevo escenario arancelario, la resiliencia de la economía española y los retos que plantea un mundo cada vez más incierto. Un episodio imprescindible para entender el nuevo tablero económico internacional.
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Nuestro economista jefe desgrana las perspectivas macroeconómicas de España en este vídeo de CaixaBank Accionistas.
El 9 de febrer tres dels nostres economistes van compartir amb #AmicsdelPaís les “Perspectives econòmiques per al 2021, un any de canvi” de CaixaBank Research en un seminari online que reproduïm en aquest vídeo.