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Although it is still far from the 2% target rate, inflation in both the euro area and the US has fallen steadily throughout 2023, and one of the key assumptions in our 2024 outlook is that it will continue to do so next year, facilitating the first interest rate cuts by the Fed and the ECB. But how robust is this disinflationary assumption? How much of a hurry are the central banks in to lower rates?

Following a September full of announcements, the next meeting of the ECB (24 October) will be one of transition, at least in one way: 31 October 2019 will mark the end the mandate of Mario Draghi, the most charismatic president1 in the institution’s history.