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Spain’s manufacturing sector has overcome a 2022 that was hit hard by the energy crisis and supply problems regarding some raw materials, preventing manufacturers from getting back to their pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, although the economic situation is still significantly uncertain, the outlook is somewhat more favourable than a few months ago: having weathered the more adverse scenarios observed during the winter, the economy continues to show positive signs thanks to the stabilisation of energy markets and the resilience of Spain’s labour market and household consumption.
Spanish tourism has made a strong start to 2023. International tourist arrivals have returned to the levels of 2019 while records have been broken by international tourism expenditure. Domestic tourism has been growing since 2022 but with less momentum due to a combination of reduced purchasing power and greater outbound travel. Although tourism is currently one of the drivers of the Spanish economy, several headwinds are likely to appear in the coming quarters. The complicated macroeconomic outlook in the countries of origin of inbound tourists, the reactivation of more distant destinations for European and Spanish tourists, and competition from more economical destinations point to a slowdown in Spain’s tourism industry as we approach 2024.
Foreign demand for housing in Spain has performed exceptionally well after the pandemic. In 2022, foreigners bought 90,000 homes in Spain, 46% more than in 2021. In line with this good performance, the number of mortgages taken out by foreigners also increased and reached 30,000 in 2022, so that one in three foreign buyers took out a mortgage in Spain last year. Foreign residents tend to buy homes and take out mortgages for a similar amount as Spaniards. On the other hand, non-resident foreigners tend to opt for more expensive properties and, consequently, the average mortgage taken out by foreigners is higher, although there are notable differences depending on nationality and autonomous region. The value of mortgages taken out by foreigners in the Balearic Islands is particularly high while, in terms of nationality, Swedes and Americans tend to take out the largest mortgages.
The outlook for the Spanish economy and its sectors in 2025 and 2026 is strong. Although there remains a high level of uncertainty surrounding the rules that govern global trade, we expect Spain’s GDP to grow by 2.4% in 2025 and by 2.0% in 2026, in a scenario in which the trade tensions remain contained.
Desde 2022, la restauración en España vive una fuerte reactivación gracias al auge turístico y a la recuperación pospandemia. Sin embargo, aunque los ingresos prácticamente duplican los niveles previos a la crisis sanitaria y el empleo en el sector ha alcanzado cifras récord, persiste un reto estructural: cada año, 1 de cada 10 empresas del sector entra o sale del mercado. El análisis regional y la comparación con la UE confirman que la elevada rotación empresarial responde, entre otros factores, a la alta densidad de locales, al reducido tamaño de las empresas y a un menor grado de profesionalización, lo que se traduce en ingresos por empleado significativamente inferiores.
The strong growth of the tourism sector in recent years, together with new consumer habits following the pandemic, has led to an extraordinary recovery of the Spanish restaurant sector, both in terms of job creation and turnover. It has also gained considerable international recognition and prestige, while at the same time playing a fundamental role in our country as a promoter of social and territorial cohesion.
This winter’s drought has highlighted one of the most important challenges facing Spain’s agrifood sector: improving how water resources are used given the prospect of their availability becoming more limited.
Repeating tourists are one of the keys to the success of Spain’s tourism sector, but climate change puts their loyalty at risk. In this article we present a highly innovative analysis using data on payments made with foreign cards on CaixaBank POS terminals, which allows us to identify the international tourists who visited Spain in the high season, both in 2022 and in 2023.
Europe is the world's main source of tourists and the Mediterranean basin its main destination. This is doubly beneficial for Spain, whose tourism sector is one of the most firmly established in the region. However, other countries' tourism industries are developing strongly and the re-emergence of Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey has altered the playing field.
After the recent boom in tourism, of 2018 growth of international tourism slowed down in all regions of the world, with the exception of the Middle East where it increased substantially.
The war in Ukraine has fuelled fears of shortages of certain essential inputs for the agrifood sector, as Russia and Ukraine are major players in the global supply of cereals, oils and fertilisers, among other commodities. It is therefore not surprising that, following the outbreak of the conflict, the prices of agricultural commodities rose sharply on international markets. This price hike has been passed on to the production costs of Spain’s agricultural sector, a net importer of fertilisers and animal feed, and is also having an impact on the food prices paid by end consumers. Nevertheless, the most recent developments (agreements to release part of the grain retained in the Black Sea and good harvests in other producing countries) have helped to stabilise agricultural prices and reduce the risk of a global food crisis.
The recent boom in Spain’s international tourism is having a very positive impact on the growth of the economy and of employment. However, it also has repercussions for the resident population that are not always positive, such as greater congestion due to the larger influx of tourists in certain parts of Spain. This has rekindled the debate on the need to move towards higher quality tourism.
The Spanish residential market has suffered from a slump in foreign demand during the pandemic. Restrictions on international travel have hit the most tourist-oriented areas of the Mediterranean coast and islands particularly hard, which have seen a sharp fall in purchases by foreigners. Nevertheless, although house prices in these tourist-oriented municipalities have seen a marked slowdown, the adjustment was very moderate until Q1 2021 and the outlook for the coming quarters is good, thanks to the revival of international tourism, especially in the coming year.
Activity in the real estate market is recovering from the extraordinary slump experienced during the strictest months of lockdown. House sales picked up notably in the first few months of 2021 while new building permits continue to recover gradually. On the other hand, house prices have accentuated their downward trend observed since mid-2018. Nevertheless, their performance was surprisingly resilient during the pandemic, particularly the prices for new builds, and we expect house prices to continue posting moderate but steady gains in the coming quarters.
The outlook for the Spanish economy as a whole is highly dependent on the trends in inflationary pressures, especially those related to energy. The primary sector was already suffering from rising production costs and the war in Ukraine has merely aggravated the situation.
The US’ tariff hikes of between 10 and 20 pps should have a limited impact on the Spanish economy, less than in other advanced economies, but some sectors could be more affected.
The wine sector plays a fundamental role in Spain, not only in economic terms due to its contribution to activity, employment and exports but also because of how extensively vines are grown and its regional importance, making it a driving force for environmental conservation and rural development. Spain is the world’s second largest exporter of wine in volume and third in value, although in recent years we have seen greater penetration in North America and Asia, markets that tend to buy wine of higher value. After the COVID-19 crisis, wineries and cooperatives must tackle important medium-term challenges and adapt to the new consumption habits of a younger, more digital and environmentally aware public. This strategy includes a commitment to organic farming, online sales and wine tourism.
The demand for housing among non-resident foreign buyers has grown sharply in recent years, especially after the pandemic, consolidating itself as one of the main drivers of Spain's real estate market. This boom is a response to several attractions which Spain has to offer, such as economic stability, the perception of security, good connectivity and a real estate offer that remains competitive. The profile of these buyers and the areas of interest have diversified, with an increase in the variety of nationalities and chosen locations: the influence of the United Kingdom has reduced, Poland is in the top 5 buyer nationalities, interest from the US and Latin America is on the rise, and new centres of interest are emerging in less traditional areas, such as Castellón, Asturias, Huelva and Córdoba.