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NGEU is a powerful anti-cyclical policy, but there are many doubts about its potential scope and long-term legacy. If high-quality programmes are chosen, effectively developed and accompanied by useful reforms (the conditions attached to the disbursements could play an important role), a very high impact and potentially even permanent benefits could be achieved. If not, the boost to growth will be only fleeting.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/public-sector/ngeu-capacity-transformation-and-macroeconomic-impact

After growing by 3.2% in 2024, in 2025 the economy is expected to continue to grow above the euro area average, supported by strong household consumption and the recovery of investment. The major geopolitical challenges and Europe’s weak growth represent the main risk factors.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/spanish-economy-ended-2024-strong-note-and-faces-2025

Euro area inflation has reached record highs above 5.0%, with no let-up in sight for the coming months, especially following the surge in energy prices due to the conflict in Ukraine. Beyond the figure itself, it is often overlooked that the impact of a rise in prices does not affect all households alike, and that this largely depends on which items are responsible for the price rally.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/inflation/inflation-inequality

The global economy continues to grow at different speeds in Q2. In the US, the labour market is beginning to show signs of moderation while inflation continues its slow downward trickle; Germany’s weakness conditions the euro area as a whole, and China’s economy faces a modest outlook for Q3.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/inflation-relatively-under-control-international-stage-focus

One of the main topics of discussion in this current phase of economic recovery is, without a doubt, inflation. In 2021, it has reached levels not witnessed since 2008 in the US, while in the euro area it is likely to reach levels not seen since 2012, fuelling risks of inflationary pressures. In fact, the latest inflation data have been notably higher than anticipated, especially in the US. In this context, we wonder to what extent these surprises have had a significant impact on the financial markets.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/financial-markets/will-inflation-trigger-new-turbulences-financial-markets