Based on an anonymised analysis of internal CaixaBank data, we perform an in-depth study of recent patterns in spending on catering in Spain.
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The COVID-19 crisis is severely affecting house purchases. Once the slump in transactions during the lockdown has been overcome, the evolution in demand will largely depend on the recovery of the labour market and international tourism over the coming months. Our forecast scenario predicts a gradual recovery in demand, although the more than half a million transactions recorded in 2019 will not be repeated, even in 2021.
Investment is a key determinant of long-term economic growth, due to both its direct contribution to aggregate demand and its impact on competitiveness and productivity. In recent years, business investment in Spain has shown significant divergence by sector and region, as well as a notable change in its composition, with a growing prominence of intangible assets (R&D, software, intellectual property, etc.), especially in advanced services and larger companies. This highlights the central role of digitalisation in transforming the productive base of Spain’s economy and in narrowing the gap with the most innovative countries.
We use internal data to analyse the behaviour of foreign visitors who stay in Spain for long periods of time. This is a segment of the population that tends to stay in second homes, seasonal rental homes or specialist accommodation – segments that are experiencing rising demand in Spain’s real estate market.
The Spanish economy is facing 2026 from a strong starting position, supported by the momentum of buoyant growth in 2025, a dynamic labour market, strong domestic demand and relatively contained inflation despite the energy shock. The outbreak of the war in Iran has introduced a new supply shock, increasing uncertainty and forcing us to revise downwards the projected GDP growth for this year to 2.1%, 0.3 pps below the previous forecast. In any case, the intensity of the slowdown is expected to vary depending on the sector. Manufacturing sectors, which are more energy-intensive, outward-facing, and with a weaker cyclical position, will be the most affected. In contrast, services and other activities linked to domestic demand are starting from a more solid position and are less exposed.
Dossier
The digital economy
During the months of lockdown there was a radical change in food consumption patterns in Spain. Using internal data on spending with Spanish and foreign cards via CaixaBank POS terminals, we can see that expenditure in supermarkets and large food stores picked up noticeably during the state of emergency. Online shopping also increased, partly to minimise travel and contact between people, whereas consumption in restaurants plummeted. Despite the fact that, during the summer, household expenditure on restaurants picked up strongly, the slump in foreign tourism continues to be particularly detrimental to establishments geared towards international clients.
Euro area inflation has reached record highs above 5.0%, with no let-up in sight for the coming months, especially following the surge in energy prices due to the conflict in Ukraine. Beyond the figure itself, it is often overlooked that the impact of a rise in prices does not affect all households alike, and that this largely depends on which items are responsible for the price rally.
NGEU is a powerful anti-cyclical policy, but there are many doubts about its potential scope and long-term legacy. If high-quality programmes are chosen, effectively developed and accompanied by useful reforms (the conditions attached to the disbursements could play an important role), a very high impact and potentially even permanent benefits could be achieved. If not, the boost to growth will be only fleeting.
The COVID-19 crisis has been a shock on a global scale, but its economic impact has been quite uneven from country to country, reflecting differences in productive structures and public policy response. Given this asymmetry, it is no surprise that the recovery is also occurring at very different paces, exacerbated by the discriminatory access to the vaccines and the continuous new outbreaks of the virus.
In a context of unusually high inflation, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have stepped up and are in the midst of the monetary policy normalisation process, albeit at different rates.
Public policies play a key role in helping technological advances to emerge and spread throughout the economy. In this article we address the dissemination of technology and the role of public policies in this process.