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The spring rally was dampened by signs of persistent inflationary pressures and a tightening of the hawkish tone among the major central banks, with rates expected to be «higher for longer».

Although Spain’s exports have been surprisingly strong in the current context, this good performance stretches back a long time. It began during the financial and sovereign debt crisis of a decade ago, when many Spanish companies were forced to look abroad for business opportunities in the face of weak domestic demand.

We analyse the budget deficit reduction plan set out by the government in its 2023-2026 Stability Programme, based on a gradual reduction driven by the recovery of the Spanish economy, bringing it down from 4.8% of GDP in 2022 to 3.9% in 2023 and to 2.5% by 2026.

To date, the investments already approved as part of the Portuguese Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) amount to 12,249 million euros, compared to total planned investments of 16,644 million euros. This represents an approval rate of 74%, which in principle looks promising in terms of getting the most out of the NGEU funds that Portugal will receive up until 2026.

The uncertainty generated by Brexit is already affecting economic growth (mainly in the United Kingdom, and in particular in the form of a suspension of investment projects) and it could hinder business relations with Spain in the short term.

Once domestic demand reflects the effects of the interest rate hikes, the hardest part of the central banks’ work will have been largely completed. The problem is that the markets are already – perhaps precipitously – pricing in an imminent shift in monetary policy.

we analyse the evolution of the middle classes in advanced countries in recent decades, focusing in particular on the trends in Spain’s middle class over the last decade.