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Following the last update of the macroeconomic scenario in June this year, we have incorporated the new information that has come to light and have re-examined the main factors dominating the scenario.
A changing European labour market: the role of immigration and new jobs
Labour market & demographics
Active training policies, as well as the ability to attract talent in sectors with the greatest shortage of skilled personnel, will be key if the EU is to make progress in innovation and competitiveness and avoid falling behind its main competitors.
The conflict in Ukraine has truncated forecasts that 2022 would be the year of the definitive revival of foreign exchanges, especially tourism.
To assess the extent to which demand for housing could be affected by the rise in interest rates, we calculate the expected trend in the theoretical mortgage burden ratio according to our current CaixaBank Research forecast scenario, recently revised following the invasion of Ukraine.
The wealth of Portuguese households has increased in recent years and the distribution by level of wealth or employment status shows little difference with respect to the euro area. However, the proportion of liabilities that are borne by the less wealthy half of the population is relatively higher.