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In a summer focused on the effects of climate change – with events like El Niño, which could disrupt global activity in the autumn – and with political risk back where it stood before the signing of the US-Iran deal in June, an old acquaintance has once again come knocking on the door of economic and financial risks. 

A sense of unstable balance will dominate the performance of the economy throughout 2024 – something which we will no doubt have to get used to and which will demand considerable flexibility among economic agents when it comes to making decisions. Such are the times in which we live.

In a scenario dominated by risks, what is the starting point and the future outlook for the Spanish economy in 2024? What about its strengths and weaknesses?

Kevin Warsh’s appointment as Chair of the Federal Reserve marks a significant shift in US monetary policy. His first meeting as head of the FOMC did not change interest rates, but it did provide indications about the institution’s future direction.

We expect the global economy to grow by 3.1% both in 2025 and in 2026 (up from 2.9% previously), driven by upward revisions in the US (from 1.3% to 1.8% in 2025) and China (from 4.2% to 4.6%), in addition to marginal improvements in the euro area (from 1.2% to 1.3%).

The new GDP growth forecast by autonomous community for 2026 presents a mixed picture: the regions of the Mediterranean arc and the archipelagos will experience stronger growth, while the Cantabrian coast and much of the interior will record more modest rates.

Having launched the most intense monetary tightening cycle of recent decades, it appears that the central banks are on track to solve the unexpected upturn in inflation which the international economy has had to cope with since the first half of 2021.

Euro area inflation has reached record highs above 5.0%, with no let-up in sight for the coming months, especially following the surge in energy prices due to the conflict in Ukraine. Beyond the figure itself, it is often overlooked that the impact of a rise in prices does not affect all households alike, and that this largely depends on which items are responsible for the price rally.

The Industrial Accelerator Act, presented by the European Commission at the beginning of March, outlines its response to the EU’s weakening industrial base. It is structured around a set of quantitative objectives: a general one, to raise the sector’s share of the economy to 20% of GDP by 2035 (14% in 2025), and several specific ones, aimed at boosting productive capacity and reducing strategic dependencies in critical segments. In pursuit of this latter goal, it includes minimum European content requirements and maximum thresholds for third countries in terms of foreign direct investment and public procurement.

The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in Spanish firms has accelerated in recent years, but the process has been uneven and remains incomplete. This article analyses the extent of AI penetration considering four key dimensions: company size, sectoral differences, specific uses within organisations and the main barriers hindering its deployment, as well as a comparison with the rest of Europe. Understanding how and where AI is being incorporated is particularly important from a business and macroeconomic perspective, as its adoption influences efficiency and productivity gains and can widen gaps between firms, sectors and workers in a productive fabric like Spain’s, which is dominated by SMEs and microenterprises.

The US economy is facing 2026 with a mix of strength and vulnerability. The resilience demonstrated in 2025 has exceeded expectations, and investment in AI, the fiscal stimulus and new rate cuts predict another year of strong growth. Nevertheless, the picture is not free from risks.

In an environment marked by geopolitical uncertainty, high interest rates and cooling global demand, the major advanced economies ended 2023 more resilient than had been anticipated a few quarters ago,