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A sense of unstable balance will dominate the performance of the economy throughout 2024 – something which we will no doubt have to get used to and which will demand considerable flexibility among economic agents when it comes to making decisions. Such are the times in which we live.

In a scenario dominated by risks, what is the starting point and the future outlook for the Spanish economy in 2024? What about its strengths and weaknesses?

The US economy is facing 2026 with a mix of strength and vulnerability. The resilience demonstrated in 2025 has exceeded expectations, and investment in AI, the fiscal stimulus and new rate cuts predict another year of strong growth. Nevertheless, the picture is not free from risks.

As we approach 2026, the global economy is once again demonstrating greater-than-expected resilience to uncertainty and geopolitical noise. However, growth and welfare will depend on how the division between economic blocs, the rise of artificial intelligence and fiscal challenges are managed, in a context of transition and increasing complexity.

With the announcement of Libra, Facebook have put the debate about cryptocurrencies and the operation of existing payment systems back on the agenda. After the fall in the value of Bitcoin and doubts about its ability to function as money, many see stablecoins as an alternative with greater potential for adoption.

Like all forecasts, our scenario is subject to uncertainty. For this reason, we present growth intervals with their respective associated probabilities. Nevertheless, we can state with a high degree of confidence that the Spanish economy will continue to grow at a steady pace next year.

How has the demand for technological goods in Spain evolved? We analyse what has happened according to different sociodemographic segments through the use of duly anonymised internal CaixaBank data.

The conflict in Ukraine has truncated forecasts that 2022 would be the year of the definitive revival of foreign exchanges, especially tourism.

The indicators for Q1 suggest that economic activity is more buoyant than expected, and that GDP growth in the first quarter could exceed our forecast of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter.

The energy crisis has led to an increase in energy prices which is not affecting all households alike, since their resources and initial situation are not the same in all cases.

We review how emerging economies have dealt with the pandemic, the crisis stemming from the war in Ukraine and the protectionist shift of the United States, and to what extent they have recovered.