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Preliminary GDP data published by the National Statistics Institute indicate a notable acceleration in growth in the final quarter of 2023, with an increase of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 2.2% year-on-year in Q4. 

While in December 2022 our GDP growth forecast for 2023 was 1%, finally the Spanish economy has managed to grow by an impressive 2.5%, in spite of the geopolitical uncertainty, persistent high inflation (despite its decline in recent months) and rising interest rates.

CaixaBank Research forecasts growth of 1.4% for 2024, but this year we are pointing out the risks to the upside. The good growth data for Q4 2023 and the improvement in the outlook for household consumption will lead us to revise our growth forecast and place it close to 2.0%.

As we approach 2026, the global economy is once again demonstrating greater-than-expected resilience to uncertainty and geopolitical noise. However, growth and welfare will depend on how the division between economic blocs, the rise of artificial intelligence and fiscal challenges are managed, in a context of transition and increasing complexity.

How has the demand for technological goods in Spain evolved? We analyse what has happened according to different sociodemographic segments through the use of duly anonymised internal CaixaBank data.

Like all forecasts, our scenario is subject to uncertainty. For this reason, we present growth intervals with their respective associated probabilities. Nevertheless, we can state with a high degree of confidence that the Spanish economy will continue to grow at a steady pace next year.

Five months after the last update to our macroeconomic forecast scenario, we have incorporated newly available information and re-examined the main factors dominating the outlook for Spain’s economy.

In recent quarters, the global economy has shown remarkable resilience and we estimate that it could have grown by around 3.0% in 2023. With this starting point, we explain the latest revision to our global economic forecast scenario and the outlook for monetary policy.

Will oil remain an essential source of energy in the coming decades? What supply and demand scenarios are anticipated given the targets to decarbonise the economy?

The indicators for Q1 suggest that economic activity is more buoyant than expected, and that GDP growth in the first quarter could exceed our forecast of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter.

We review how emerging economies have dealt with the pandemic, the crisis stemming from the war in Ukraine and the protectionist shift of the United States, and to what extent they have recovered.

Through the BRI, China has sought to establish alliances and improve regional connectivity through infrastructure investments and economic integration in the Eurasian continent, as well as in Africa and Latin America.