The available information for Q2 suggests a more positive performance than anticipated for the Portuguese economy. In this context, we believe there is room for a slight improvement in our growth projections.
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As we emerged from the summer, we found an economy in the midst of a slowdown compared to the significant growth rates recorded in the first half of 2023. In this article we present our outlook.
De-risking, decoupling, fracturing, reshoring, nearshoring, friendshoring... understanding the new era of globalisation
The inflation rebound of the last two years has led the Bank of Japan to rethink its monetary policy and abandon yield curve control (YCC), the implications of which we discuss below.
The year 2023 began with forecasts mired in pessimism and fears. In the end, things have gone far better than that. Will the same thing happen in 2024?
After the experience of recent years, we know how political risk can alter the behaviour of key hypotheses in economic forecasting scenarios.
Despite the challenging international context of 2025, which foreshadowed a significant deterioration in Spain’s current account balance after showing uninterrupted surpluses since 2012, the balance has ended up being better than expected, thanks to favourable factors such as the containment of international energy prices and the dynamism of service exports, especially non-tourism services.
The easing of monetary policy is dependent on inflation continuing to fall towards the 2% target, a path which has been dubbed the «last mile». What factors will help the US economy to complete it?
maintaining the tone of recent quarters, we continue to see more lights than shadows in the complex transition that the business cycle is currently immersed.
The incorporation of these two new dimensions into the indicator allows wage dynamics in Spain to be monitored at a more granular level, based on the aggregated and anonymised analysis of internal data and big data techniques.
Spain’s economy has not abandoned the path of correcting one of its traditional imbalances: its foreign indebtedness. Spain has not only racked up 12 consecutive years with a net lending capacity, but in 2023 its net lending also reached a new all-time high of 3.7% of GDP, compared to 1.5% in 2022.