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In this second article devoted to the analysis of investment in Spain, we focus on how investment evolved during the pandemic and we analyse the signals offered by the latest indicators related to gross capital formation.

The new Strategic Project for Economic Recovery and Transformation («PERTE» project) approved by the government in May could provide a boost to the Spanish automotive industry, one of the hardest hit by the current shortage of microchips, which are increasingly necessary for the production of electric vehicles.

Although the exposure of Spanish employment to US demand is limited in aggregate terms, its impact varies considerably from sector to sector. Activities such as manufacturing (especially in pharmaceuticals), air transportation, professional activities and ICT have closer links, together with the sale and repair of vehicles.

We have revised our GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards by 0.1 pp, placing them at 2.4% and 2.0%, respectively. Meanwhile, the available indicators show that the economy continues to enjoy steady growth in Q2.

The Spanish economy’s trade deficit in energy products has increased considerably and it is unlikely to revert in 2023. In this article we analyse the figures behind the Spanish economy’s energy deficit in 2022 in order to understand what is driving it and what we can expect for 2023.

In this article, we seek to identify the degree to which import prices are transmitted to the CPI, how much is due to energy and with what lag period this transmission is observed.

The recent escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, with the outbreak of the war in Iran, has once again placed energy at the centre of the global economic agenda. Although the scope and duration of the conflict remain uncertain, markets, especially those for oil and natural gas, have reacted swiftly. In this context, we analyse where the Spanish economy stands in the face of this new energy shock.

Geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty surrounding foreign demand force us to reassess the strengths and weaknesses of exports in the Spanish economy. To do so, it is essential to analyse what we export, how diversified our range of products is, as well as how competitive it is. To improve our understanding, in this article we will analyse the complexity of the products that are exported, as well as their technological intensity, two key variables for assessing the competitiveness of our exports.

We analyse the budget deficit reduction plan set out by the government in its 2023-2026 Stability Programme, based on a gradual reduction driven by the recovery of the Spanish economy, bringing it down from 4.8% of GDP in 2022 to 3.9% in 2023 and to 2.5% by 2026.

It has been almost four months since our last update to the macroeconomic scenario. During these months, the Spanish economy has shown a more resilient tone than expected. Furthermore, the normalisation of gas prices, although incomplete, has been confirmed and the peak in reference interest rates is now in sight. Faced with all these changes, we have updated our macro forecast scenario.

The financial position of Spanish households has improved in aggregate terms: incomes have grown significantly, wealth continues to recover, indebtedness has decreased, and the financial burden is at a minimum. However, generational inequalities persist.

The savings rate of Spanish households remains very high, but it can vary substantially depending on income level, so it is important to analyse how it is distributed according to income level and age. We dedicate this article to such an analysis, using anonymised internal data and big data techniques. 

We summarise the current situation and future outlook for the Spanish tourism sector, as set out in the Tourism Sector Report S1 2023, in this preview from the September edition of the CaixaBank Research Monthly Report.