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At a time when many countries are beginning to gradually lift the lockdown measures, and with the first estimates of GDP for Q1 2020, we can begin to glimpse the impact of the social distancing measures on the economy in this second quarter of 2020.
How will the restrictions on activity affect the economic recovery? Our analysis suggests that, although business will pick up again in Q3 2020 thanks to increased mobility, most countries' GDP will still be well below the levels reached at the end of 2019.
Despite the unprecedented economic downturn caused by COVID-19, the cost of financing public debt is at an all-time low. To what extent do these interest rates lie behind the macroeconomic fundamentals?
After analysing the extent of the fiscal boost in Germany, Spain, France and Italy to counteract the COVID-19 crisis, we examine the following question: which countries have taken more efficient and better fiscal measures?