CaixaBank Financial Markets Daily Report 31 July 2026 Risk appetite improved on Thursday amid supportive macro data and lower energy prices, as war tensions around Hormuz did not escalate. Eurozone sovereign yields fell, with steeper curves and tighter peripheral spreads, after GDP growth surprised to the upside across the euro area and its main economies. ECB expectations were little changed ahead of today’s June CPI print, though markets pared odds of a third rate hike. Climate change Climate change and international tourist loyalty: new evidence for Spain We analyse how tourists react to episodes of extreme heat in order to anticipate risks and opportunities for the tourism sector in the face of climate change, using anonymised internal data from foreign card payments on CaixaBank POS terminals. David Cesar Heymann Eduard Alcobé Garcia 15 July 2026 Financial markets outlook The reopening of Hormuz supports markets despite monetary tightening The provisional agreement between the US and Iran reached mid-month, which extended the military truce and allowed the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered one of the sharpest drops in oil prices in recent years. This led to a significant decline in… CaixaBank Research 15 July 2026 Opinion The Spanish economy after Hormuz The most visible and immediate effect of the conflict has been on inflation, while the labour market shows a slower response to the shocks. The only area where the conflict has had a positive impact from a macroeconomic perspective is the tourism sector. Oriol Aspachs 15 July 2026 World outlook The US-Iran agreement alleviates adverse scenarios for the international economy The evolution of the conflict in the Middle East remains key for the global outlook. Following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the data show a somewhat erratic increase in trade flows, consistent with warnings from various international agencies that normalisation… CaixaBank Research 14 July 2026 Tourism From the weekday set menu to Saturday night: weekly consumption patterns in Spanish restaurants Pedro Álvarez Ondina Eduard Alcobé Garcia 14 July 2026 Investment Europe needs to channel its high savings into productive investments Rita Sánchez Soliva 14 July 2026 Inflation European inflation: taking stock of the Middle East shock CaixaBank Research 14 July 2026 Employment The trajectory of employment growth in Spain Zoel Martín Vilató 14 July 2026 European Union The upcoming budget takes over from NGEU in the European Semester David Martínez Turégano 14 July 2026 Opinion The global economy in search of a new balance José Ramón Díez 13 July 2026 Publications Monthly Report July 2026 | No. 513 15 July 2026 Sectorial Report Sectoral Observatory S1 2026 Spain Spain’s Macroeconomic & Financial Outlook 10 July 2026 Sectorial Report Real Estate. Increasing supply, the great challenge of the Spanish real estate market S1 2026 Sectorial Report Tourism. Spanish tourism sector: from post-pandemic rebound to sustainable growth S1 2026 Portugal Portugal’s Macroeconomic & Financial Outlook 13 February 2026 Sectorial Report Agrifood. The Spanish agrifood sector gains momentum 2025 Sectorial Report Manufacturing Industry 2023 Opinion Editorial The global economy in search of a new balance José Ramón Díez Head of International Economics & Markets Key points of the month The Spanish economy after Hormuz Oriol Aspachs Head of Spanish Economics Recommended Climate change Climate change and international tourist loyalty: new evidence for Spain David Cesar Heymann Eduard Alcobé Garcia 15 July 2026 Financial markets outlook The reopening of Hormuz supports markets despite monetary tightening CaixaBank Research 15 July 2026 Opinion The Spanish economy after Hormuz Oriol Aspachs 15 July 2026 Spain's outlook The Spanish economy at a crossroads: slowdown or recovery? CaixaBank Research 14 July 2026 World outlook The US-Iran agreement alleviates adverse scenarios for the international economy CaixaBank Research 14 July 2026 Tourism From the weekday set menu to Saturday night: weekly consumption patterns in Spanish restaurants Pedro Álvarez Ondina Eduard Alcobé Garcia 14 July 2026 Investment Europe needs to channel its high savings into productive investments Rita Sánchez Soliva 14 July 2026 Inflation European inflation: taking stock of the Middle East shock CaixaBank Research 14 July 2026 Employment The trajectory of employment growth in Spain Zoel Martín Vilató 14 July 2026 Most read The consumption of each generation in normal times... and in times of pandemic Big data and the big challenges of the Spanish economy Wage dynamics in Spain: are low and high wages growing at the same pace? Which sectors are most affected by the conflict in Ukraine? NGEU: an opportunity to relaunch Spain’s real estate sector Newsletter Being informed now is more important than ever Get our latest updates Sign in Hot topics Reactivation or deceleration? Geopolitics Podcasts Despacito y buena letra: los grandes temas del curso económico 23/07/2026 Forecasts Financial markets Update date 08-07-2026 2024 2025 2026 2027 Fed Funds 4.25 3.50 3.50 3.00 ECB Refi 3.24 2.15 2.65 2.15 Macroeconomic Update date 08-07-2026 2024 2025 2026 2027 Euro area GDP 0.9 1.5 0.7 1.2 Spain GDP 3.5 2.8 2.1 1.8 US GDP 2.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 Team Javier García Arenas Senior economist María Romero Meléndez Economista Catalina Becu Research assistant Beatriz Villafranca Serrano Economist Sergio Díaz Economist Maitane Lizarraga Analyst Oriol Aspachs Head of Spanish Economics Meet us Pedro Álvarez Ondina Economist Imelda Esteban Senior economist José Ramón Díez Head of International Economics & Markets Alberto Graziano Senior Data Scientist Josep Mestres Domènech Lead economist Rita Sánchez Soliva Economist Ana Rincón García Organization Meet us David del Val Senior economist Mireia Crusells Analyst Nuria Bustamante Lead economist David Cesar Heymann Economist José Antonio Sánchez Palomino Data scientist Jesús Viscarri Organization Léopold Jouven Economist Meet us Mar Bisquert Perles Data scientist Carolina Cruz Organization Ana María Porras Organization Javier Ibáñez de Aldecoa Fuster Economist Marina Tombas Suñé Data Scientist Oriol Carreras Baquer Senior economist Eduard Alcobé Garcia Data scientist Meet us Adrià Morron Salmeron Lead economist Enric Fernández Chief Economist Jesús Manuel Carrera Moreno Research assistant Isabela Lara White Economist Ariadna Vidal Martínez Lead economist Luís Pinheiro de Matos Economist David Martínez Turégano Senior economist Meet us Judit Montoriol Garriga Lead economist Roser Ferrer Senior economist Patricia Esteban Communication Sandra Jódar Rosell Director of Strategic Planning Zoel Martín Vilató Economist Meet us
Climate change Climate change and international tourist loyalty: new evidence for Spain We analyse how tourists react to episodes of extreme heat in order to anticipate risks and opportunities for the tourism sector in the face of climate change, using anonymised internal data from foreign card payments on CaixaBank POS terminals. David Cesar Heymann Eduard Alcobé Garcia 15 July 2026
Financial markets outlook The reopening of Hormuz supports markets despite monetary tightening The provisional agreement between the US and Iran reached mid-month, which extended the military truce and allowed the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered one of the sharpest drops in oil prices in recent years. This led to a significant decline in… CaixaBank Research 15 July 2026
Opinion The Spanish economy after Hormuz The most visible and immediate effect of the conflict has been on inflation, while the labour market shows a slower response to the shocks. The only area where the conflict has had a positive impact from a macroeconomic perspective is the tourism sector. Oriol Aspachs 15 July 2026
World outlook The US-Iran agreement alleviates adverse scenarios for the international economy The evolution of the conflict in the Middle East remains key for the global outlook. Following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the data show a somewhat erratic increase in trade flows, consistent with warnings from various international agencies that normalisation… CaixaBank Research 14 July 2026
Tourism From the weekday set menu to Saturday night: weekly consumption patterns in Spanish restaurants Pedro Álvarez Ondina Eduard Alcobé Garcia 14 July 2026
Investment Europe needs to channel its high savings into productive investments Rita Sánchez Soliva 14 July 2026
European Union The upcoming budget takes over from NGEU in the European Semester David Martínez Turégano 14 July 2026
Sectorial Report Real Estate. Increasing supply, the great challenge of the Spanish real estate market S1 2026
Sectorial Report Tourism. Spanish tourism sector: from post-pandemic rebound to sustainable growth S1 2026
The global economy in search of a new balance José Ramón Díez Head of International Economics & Markets
Climate change Climate change and international tourist loyalty: new evidence for Spain David Cesar Heymann Eduard Alcobé Garcia 15 July 2026
Financial markets outlook The reopening of Hormuz supports markets despite monetary tightening CaixaBank Research 15 July 2026
Spain's outlook The Spanish economy at a crossroads: slowdown or recovery? CaixaBank Research 14 July 2026
World outlook The US-Iran agreement alleviates adverse scenarios for the international economy CaixaBank Research 14 July 2026
Tourism From the weekday set menu to Saturday night: weekly consumption patterns in Spanish restaurants Pedro Álvarez Ondina Eduard Alcobé Garcia 14 July 2026
Investment Europe needs to channel its high savings into productive investments Rita Sánchez Soliva 14 July 2026