CaixaBank Financial Markets Daily Report 09 May 2025 Positive session across markets, fuelled by optimism surrounding the trade agreement reached between the Trump administration and the UK government, which has helped ease tensions and is seen as a potential blueprint for ongoing negotiations with other countries. Additionally, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, citing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook. In contrast, Norges Bank and the Riksbank held rates steady at 4.5% and 2.25%, respectively. Opinion Trump tariffs: an own goal? Trump’s tariffs will not serve to reduce the trade deficit, to recover jobs in sectors in which the US has long lost its competitive advantages or to balance the fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, the price to pay is a return to a fragmented world and the destabilisation of the… José Ramón Díez 16 April 2025 Germany Germany’s fiscal shift and the bund: when security comes at a price We analyse how the agreement to reform the constitutional debt ceiling and boost defence spending will impact German sovereign debt and the yield on the 10-year bund. David del Val 22 April 2025 European Union A shift in the EU’s political priorities The new European Commission has completed its first 100 days amid turmoil in transatlantic relations. The implementation of Trump’s agenda (and the accompanying drama) is accelerating the change in political priorities that was already foreseen for von der Leyen’s second… David Martínez Turégano 02 April 2025 Energy Ukraine’s reconstruction and its potential energy implications for Europe One of the most highly debated issues around a partial or total peace agreement and the process of Ukraine’s reconstruction is what will happen to the European energy scenario. Will Europe once again be a major customer of Russian energy? Beatriz Villafranca Serrano 22 April 2025 Opinion The Spanish economy in the face of the Trump shock Oriol Aspachs 16 April 2025 Labour market & demographics AIReF’s evaluation of the pension reform: first match ball saved, but with big challenges on the horizon Javier García Arenas 22 April 2025 Consumption Monitoring consumption in over 200 Spanish towns and cities in real time Josep Mestres Domènech Zoel Martín Vilató 22 April 2025 Foreign sector The high lending capacity continues to help reduce Spain’s foreign debt Sergio Díaz 22 April 2025 Foreign sector The diversification of Spain’s export destinations Anna Bahí Esteba 22 April 2025 Savings Increase in Spanish household savings in 2024 Javier García Arenas 22 April 2025 Publications Monthly Report April 2025 | No. 499 22 April 2025 Spain Spain’s Macroeconomic & Financial Outlook 10 April 2025 Sectorial Report Real Estate. The expansive cycle takes hold S1 2025 Sectorial Report Tourism. The Spanish tourism sector: no signs of cyclical exhaustion S1 2025 Sectorial Report Sectoral Observatory S2 2024 Sectorial Report Agrifood. Spain’s agrifood sector enjoys a revival 2024 Portugal Portugal’s Macroeconomic & Financial Outlook 15 April 2025 Sectorial Report Manufacturing Industry 2023 Opinion Editorial Trump tariffs: an own goal? José Ramón Díez Head of International Economics & Markets Key points of the month The Spanish economy in the face of the Trump shock Oriol Aspachs Head of Spanish Economics Recommended Labour market & demographics AIReF’s evaluation of the pension reform: first match ball saved, but with big challenges on the horizon Javier García Arenas 22 April 2025 Portugal outlook Portugal kicks off 2025 with a slight loss of traction in economic activity CaixaBank Research 22 April 2025 Foreign sector The high lending capacity continues to help reduce Spain’s foreign debt Sergio Díaz 22 April 2025 Foreign sector The diversification of Spain’s export destinations Anna Bahí Esteba 22 April 2025 Savings Increase in Spanish household savings in 2024 Javier García Arenas 22 April 2025 Consumption Monitoring consumption in over 200 Spanish towns and cities in real time Josep Mestres Domènech Zoel Martín Vilató 22 April 2025 Spain's outlook The Spanish economy continues to grow at a steady pace despite the uncertain international environment CaixaBank Research 22 April 2025 Energy Ukraine’s reconstruction and its potential energy implications for Europe Beatriz Villafranca Serrano 22 April 2025 World outlook Political decisions will shape the international economy CaixaBank Research 22 April 2025 Most read What is going on with Chinese consumers? Rising food prices in Spain: what lies ahead? European dependence on Russia: a primary issue How will teleworking change urban mobility and residential decisions? Baby boomers: who they are and how they are facing retirement Newsletter Being informed now is more important than ever Get our latest updates Sign in Hot topics Climate change & green transition Real-Time Economics Podcasts Prudentemente optimistas en un contexto de incertidumbre 26/03/2025 Forecasts Financial markets Update date 11-04-2025 Macroeconomic Update date 11-04-2025 Team José Antonio Sánchez Palomino Data scientist Beatriz Villafranca Serrano Economist Imelda Esteban Senior economist Mar Bisquert Perles Data scientist Oriol Aspachs Head of Spanish Economics Luís Pinheiro de Matos Economist David Cesar Heymann Economist Meet us David Martínez Turégano Economist Josep Mestres Domènech Lead economist Javier Ibáñez de Aldecoa Fuster Economist David del Val Senior economist Ana María Porras Organization Isabela Lara White Economist Sandra Jódar Rosell Director of Strategic Planning Meet us Ariadna Vidal Martínez Lead economist Patricia Esteban Communication Enric Fernández Chief Economist Anna Bahí Esteba Research Assistant Jesús Viscarri Organization Roser Ferrer Senior economist Alberto Graziano Senior Data Scientist Meet us Léopold Jouven Economist Adrià Morron Salmeron Lead economist Maitane Lizarraga Analyst Carolina Cruz Organization Sergio Díaz Economist Antonio Marta Miranda Research assistant Judit Montoriol Garriga Lead economist Meet us Ana Rincón García Organization Eduard Alcobé Garcia Data scientist María Romero Meléndez Economista Nuria Bustamante Lead economist Pedro Álvarez Ondina Economist Rita Sánchez Soliva Economist José Ramón Díez Head of International Economics & Markets Meet us Javier García Arenas Senior economist Mireia Crusells Analyst Oriol Carreras Baquer Senior economist Zoel Martín Vilató Economist Meet us
Opinion Trump tariffs: an own goal? Trump’s tariffs will not serve to reduce the trade deficit, to recover jobs in sectors in which the US has long lost its competitive advantages or to balance the fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, the price to pay is a return to a fragmented world and the destabilisation of the… José Ramón Díez 16 April 2025
Germany Germany’s fiscal shift and the bund: when security comes at a price We analyse how the agreement to reform the constitutional debt ceiling and boost defence spending will impact German sovereign debt and the yield on the 10-year bund. David del Val 22 April 2025
European Union A shift in the EU’s political priorities The new European Commission has completed its first 100 days amid turmoil in transatlantic relations. The implementation of Trump’s agenda (and the accompanying drama) is accelerating the change in political priorities that was already foreseen for von der Leyen’s second… David Martínez Turégano 02 April 2025
Energy Ukraine’s reconstruction and its potential energy implications for Europe One of the most highly debated issues around a partial or total peace agreement and the process of Ukraine’s reconstruction is what will happen to the European energy scenario. Will Europe once again be a major customer of Russian energy? Beatriz Villafranca Serrano 22 April 2025
Labour market & demographics AIReF’s evaluation of the pension reform: first match ball saved, but with big challenges on the horizon Javier García Arenas 22 April 2025
Consumption Monitoring consumption in over 200 Spanish towns and cities in real time Josep Mestres Domènech Zoel Martín Vilató 22 April 2025
Foreign sector The high lending capacity continues to help reduce Spain’s foreign debt Sergio Díaz 22 April 2025
Labour market & demographics AIReF’s evaluation of the pension reform: first match ball saved, but with big challenges on the horizon Javier García Arenas 22 April 2025
Portugal outlook Portugal kicks off 2025 with a slight loss of traction in economic activity CaixaBank Research 22 April 2025
Foreign sector The high lending capacity continues to help reduce Spain’s foreign debt Sergio Díaz 22 April 2025
Consumption Monitoring consumption in over 200 Spanish towns and cities in real time Josep Mestres Domènech Zoel Martín Vilató 22 April 2025
Spain's outlook The Spanish economy continues to grow at a steady pace despite the uncertain international environment CaixaBank Research 22 April 2025
Energy Ukraine’s reconstruction and its potential energy implications for Europe Beatriz Villafranca Serrano 22 April 2025
World outlook Political decisions will shape the international economy CaixaBank Research 22 April 2025