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maintaining the tone of recent quarters, we continue to see more lights than shadows in the complex transition that the business cycle is currently immersed.

We set out the revision of our forecast scenario for the price of oil and the price of European natural gas for the coming quarters.

Despite the challenging international context of 2025, which foreshadowed a significant deterioration in Spain’s current account balance after showing uninterrupted surpluses since 2012, the balance has ended up being better than expected, thanks to favourable factors such as the containment of international energy prices and the dynamism of service exports, especially non-tourism services. 

The incorporation of these two new dimensions into the indicator allows wage dynamics in Spain to be monitored at a more granular level, based on the aggregated and anonymised analysis of internal data and big data techniques.

Stable economic outlook but with increasing risks: geopolitical instability, uncertainty and a lack of confidence.

Spain’s economy has not abandoned the path of correcting one of its traditional imbalances: its foreign indebtedness. Spain has not only racked up 12 consecutive years with a net lending capacity, but in 2023 its net lending also reached a new all-time high of 3.7% of GDP, compared to 1.5% in 2022.