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Following the last update of the macroeconomic scenario in June this year, we have incorporated the new information that has come to light and have re-examined the main factors dominating the scenario.

The new GDP growth forecast by autonomous community for 2026 presents a mixed picture: the regions of the Mediterranean arc and the archipelagos will experience stronger growth, while the Cantabrian coast and much of the interior will record more modest rates.

We recap the phases of the recent inflationary cycle and analyse the evolution of intermediate costs, which are decisive for containing the triggering of second-round effects and ensuring price stability.

The Spanish economy continues to have the highest structural unemployment rate in the European Union, despite having managed to reduce it substantially in recent years. To curb it, improvements are needed on three fronts: greater supply and demand for employment and better matching between the two.

The financial position of Spanish households has improved in aggregate terms: incomes have grown significantly, wealth continues to recover, indebtedness has decreased, and the financial burden is at a minimum. However, generational inequalities persist.

Dining out in Spain shows a clear pattern of concentration towards the end of the week, with a higher average spend, suggesting an increasing trend towards more social and discretionary consumption, with seasonal variations.

The available information suggests that Spain’s economic activity has continued to grow at a steady pace during Q1, despite an adverse economic context and inflation hovering at around 3%.

Spain’s GDP continued to record dynamic growth in Q3 2024 and the main indicators suggest this trend will continue in Q4. The strength of the labour market is boosting household incomes and inflation remains contained, despite the ongoing rebound.

Beyond the number of visitors, the main challenge for the tourism sector is to continue growing in a sustainable and balanced manner. To this end, it is important to pay attention to other areas of a structural nature, which allow us to make a good diagnosis of the sector’s strengths, in order to continue developing them, as well as the weaknesses that must be addressed in order to make this growth sustainable in the long term.