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We summarise the current state and future outlook of Spain’s real estate sector, in this preview of the CaixaBank Research Real Estate Sector Report 2S 2023.

Despite the challenging international context of 2025, which foreshadowed a significant deterioration in Spain’s current account balance after showing uninterrupted surpluses since 2012, the balance has ended up being better than expected, thanks to favourable factors such as the containment of international energy prices and the dynamism of service exports, especially non-tourism services. 

In this first article in a series of two, we review the recent trends in capital investment in Spain and make a comparison with the rest of the euro area. In a second article in this same Monthly Report, we investigate the incentives for investing, based on an analysis of the evolution of profitability and the cost of financing, sector by sector.

The Draghi report lays the foundations for re-industrialisation in Europe, combining sweeping actions with a menu of specific proposals for 10 strategic sectors.

Follow the evolution of the Spanish economy with our real-time indicators.

The government has presented its 2025 Annual Progress Report, which anticipates an improvement in the general government balance thanks to sustained economic growth, the end of the temporary tax cuts and the containment of expenditure. 

We assess the most important points in the last-minute agreement by which, on 1 January 2021, the UK left the single market and customs union with the EU.

Particularly noteworthy was the strong performance of the consumption indicators, especially car sales and air traffic, suggesting that tourism remains a major driver of economic activity. Moreover, the confidence indicators are showing a positive trend across all sectors, with the exception of construction.

The economic shock of the war in Ukraine is having differing negative effects on the various sectors of the Spanish economy depending on their energy use, their exposure to certain global supply chains and their trade ties with the region.

GDP performed better than expected in Q1 2023, rallying 1.6% quarter-on-quarter and 2.5% year-on-year thanks to the buoyancy of the foreign sector, especially tourism.

The Spanish economy closed 2025 with solid growth and has kicked off 2026 with figures that remain strong, albeit somewhat lower than those of last year. Together, the indicators published to date are consistent with CaixaBank Research’s forecast scenario, set out in the Focus «The Spanish economy in 2026» in this same Monthly Report, which anticipates GDP growth of 2.4% for this year. This allows the economy to tackle the potential consequences of the war that has erupted in the Middle East from a somewhat more comfortable position compared to other economies, but it is still too early to assess the consequences it could have. These will largely depend on the duration of the conflict and its impact on energy prices, trade routes and, ultimately, on global financial conditions and agents’ confidence. Right now, the risks are clearly skewed to the downside.

In the context of the European elections of 9 June, we bring forward the publication of the Dossier from June’s Monthly Report in order to contribute to the debate on the strengths and weaknesses of the Single Market at an economic level and some of the challenges that lie ahead: competitiveness, the impact of artificial intelligence, productivity and the capital markets union.

The slowdown that is beginning to appear in the indicators is incorporated into the new CaixaBank Research forecasts, detailed in the following pages of this Monthly Report. Broadly speaking, the scenario anticipates positive activity growth, albeit more restrained between the second and third quarters of the year. Energy prices are expected to moderate by the end of 2026, according to oil and gas futures markets, which should lead to a slight re-acceleration of growth. 

At the close of this report, the conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved and continues to exert pressure on the price of energy and its derivatives. The duration of the conflict will be crucial in assessing its economic impact. The region produces nearly 30% of the world’s crude oil and 20% of its gas, the latter being a key input in the production of fertilisers and helium, which are essential for semiconductor manufacturing. Additionally, it contains two of the world’s major maritime routes: the straits of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb (in the Red Sea). Moreover, there are factors that could hasten a resolution to the conflict, such as Trump’s declining popularity (which could affect him in the mid-term elections) and the high economic cost of the war. Given the uncertainty of the environment, our economic forecasts are anchored in quoted market energy prices.

In this Focus we present the main conclusions of the Sectoral Observatory, a new publication by CaixaBank Research in which we offer a clear and detailed analysis of the evolution of the Spanish economy from the point of view of its sectors.

The most visible and immediate effect of the conflict has been on inflation, while the labour market shows a slower response to the shocks. The only area where the conflict has had a positive impact from a macroeconomic perspective is the tourism sector.

According to the new estimate produced by the National Statistics Institute, GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter
in Q1 2024, 0.1 pps more than originally estimated. Behind this good performance lie several key elements: the strength of the labour market, the boost provided by dynamic immigration flows and the good data for international tourism, which have once again exceeded expectations.

The CBO’s report published in June reveals that, in the absence of any substantial changes in fiscal policy, the US’ public accounts are set to deteriorate significantly over the coming decade: by 2034 the deficit would represent 7% of GDP, well above the historical level of 3.7%, while public debt would continue to climb to new highs, reaching 122% of GDP.