# Climate change & green transition

• José Ramón Díez
• Oriol Carreras Baquer
Eduard Llorens i Jimeno
• Luís Pinheiro de Matos
Ricard Murillo Gili
• Luís Pinheiro de Matos
Ricard Murillo Gili
• Luís Pinheiro de Matos
Ricard Murillo Gili
• ## Sustainability in tourism: make or break

catalanspanish

12 Apr 2022

## Agrifood sector in Portugal (part II): the challenges of the European Green Deal and the new Common Agricultural Policy

Teresa Gil Pinheiro
22 Feb 2022

## Carbon prices: design and macroeconomic impact

17 Jan 2022

One of the consequences of the COVID-19 health crisis has been the increased awareness of the population and, by extension, that of politicians regarding the need to include sustainability criteria in economic policies in order to promote a more sustainable and resilient reactivation of the economy. The tourism industry is no stranger to these trends; firstly, because its business can be adversely affected by the consequences of climate change and, secondly, because there is ample scope for the industry to become more sustainable. This article attempts to determine what we understand by sustainability in the tourism sector, how it can be measured, the current situation of Spain’s tourism industry and where it is heading.

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What do we mean when we talk about sustainability in tourism?

Spain’s tourism industry has developed exceptionally in recent years, becoming one of the country’s main sources of business, income and employment. However, this strong development had also led to the emergence of some negative actions and social unease regarding the role played by tourism at certain destinations and moments until, in 2020, the coronavirus crisis paralysed the sector’s activity and highlighted its social and economic relevance for many areas in Spain. At present, the policies implemented by the European authorities and the Spanish government itself clearly indicate a way out of the crisis based on criteria of sustainability and resilience which, in the case of the tourism sector, consists of two aspects. On the one hand, tourism is particularly sensitive to the impact of climate change, such as rising sea levels, extreme weather events, environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. On the other hand, as tourism is an activity that involves high levels of atmospheric pollution and puts great pressure on natural resources, there is ample room for improvement to make the sector more sustainable.

The World Tourism Organization defines

the principles of sustainability in terms of the environmental, economic and socio-cultural aspects of tourism development

In this respect, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) defines the principles of sustainability in terms of three areas: environmental, economic and socio-cultural. The first area aims to make optimal use of natural and environmental resources, as well as to preserve biological diversity. The economic aspect corresponds to tourism’s impact on the economy of the locality receiving tourists, in such a way as to promote long-term viable activities, with stable employment opportunities and well-distributed socio-economic benefits. Finally, the socio-cultural aspect seeks to conserve and strengthen the cultural and architectural assets and traditional values of the tourist destination in question.

How can we measure the sector’s progress towards sustainability?

In order to gauge the degree of sustainability in the sector and the steps that should be taken in the future, we have created a relevant indicator for each of the three aspects defined by the UNWTO regarding tourism’s sustainability. It should be noted that our analysis has been carried out using data prior to 2020, as the effect of the pandemic on these indicators would distort the analysis contained in this article.

Most of the tourism industry’s greenhouse gas emissions

concentrated in the transportation sector

In environmental terms, we have taken the trend in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere by the sectors that make up Spain’s tourism industry.6 For this analysis, we have only taken into account the trend in the three gases that are most emitted into the atmosphere: carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO). The first conclusion that can be drawn is that most of the GHG emissions come from the transport sector (accounting for around 12% of tourism GDP), specifically the emission of nitrogen oxides resulting from combustion engines. These sectors are among the most polluting of all industries. Moreover, the pollution level has increased since 2013 for air transport, and although they have decreased for land transport they are still at an incredibly high level. With respect to accommodation and hospitality services, as well as travel agency and tour operator activities, carbon monoxide is the pollutant emitted most into the atmosphere.7 Although the pollution level are not alarming, far from moderating they actually grew by 78% in the case of accommodation and 38% in the case of agencies and tour operators between 2013 and 2019.

• 6. This analysis considers the data provided by the National Statistics Institute by branch of activity: accommodation services, food and beverage services (branch 55-56, according to CNAE 2009); activities of travel agencies, tour operators, booking services and related activities (branch 79); land and tube transportation (branch 49), and air transport (branch 51).
• 7. This type of GHG is produced every time a fossil fuel such as natural gas, propane gas, petrol, oil, kerosene, wood or coal is ignited. In other words, the sector produces this as a result of people using heating and cooling systems and combustion stoves.

Greenhouse gas emissions by tourism sector

## Accommodation services, food and beverage services

Last actualization: 26 January 2022 - 09:22

## Activities of travel agencies, tour operators and related activities

Last actualization: 26 January 2022 - 09:24

## Land transport

Last actualization: 26 January 2022 - 09:25

## Air transport

Last actualization: 26 January 2022 - 09:26

The indicators of economic value consider the contribution made by tourism to the economic sustainability of each destination. The variables we have used to measure this are the average number of overnight stays per month (volume of activity) and the expenditure per tourist (value of that activity). The volume and value of tourism are essential to the economic sustainability of a destination: the greater the expenditure per day, the more efficient the destination in terms of generating tourism value.

The relationship between volume (number of overnight stays) and expenditure per tourist can be seen in the figure below.8 In the most tourism-oriented provinces (those with more than 10 million overnight stays per year), average expenditure is around 300 euros per tourist. The case of Las Palmas is particularly negative in this respect: it ranks second in terms of overnight stays but only has a modest average expenditure. Among the rest of the provinces, the average expenditure per tourist is below 175 euros. Girona, Alicante and Gipuzkoa are particularly positive in economic terms as they typically have a more modest volume of hotel stays but a very high expenditure per tourist.

• 8. Total tourist expenditure by province has been estimated using in-person card payments by domestic and international tourists via CaixaBank POS terminals in 2019.

### Economic indicators: tourist expenditure vs. overnight stays

#### Y axis: Expenditure/tourist; X axis: Overnight stays (million)

Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from CaixaBank and the National Statistics Institute.

As a basic indicator to gauge the social and cultural impact of different tourist destinations, we have measured congestion in the various provinces as this influences residents’ satisfaction and is a basic indicator of the social impact of tourism on a community. To this end, we have used the variable of the number of overnight stays in proportion to the resident population, the results of which can be seen in summary form in the map below. In general terms, no significant tourism pressure is observed in most of the country.9 However, the most noteworthy cases are the following: (i) the island regions, eminently beach and nature destinations which receive a lot of international tourism,10 (ii) certain areas close to the border with France that offer beach and mountain tourism (Huesca, Tarragona and Girona) with a small local population and that are visited by neighbouring countries, as well as (iii) certain towns in Andalusia that receive both domestic and international tourism (Malaga, Huelva and Almeria). It seems that congestion in the most tourist-oriented destinations has actually worsened in recent years, given that the population has grown, on average, much less than the number of tourists.11

• 9. In Spain, the ratio of the volume of overnight stays to the resident population is slightly above seven, which can be taken as a reference for the average congestion for the country as a whole. Congestion above these levels can be considered as high. In the case of the EU, it is around four, according to data provided by Eurostat.
• 10. In fact, the Balearic Islands stand out as the European region with the highest congestion in terms of the number of annual visitors they receive, according to regional data provided by Eurostat, ahead of the autonomous province of Bolzano (Italy), the Algarve (Portugal), Tyrol and Salzburg (Austria).
• 11. In the past 10 years, Spain’s population has grown by 2% on average while international tourist arrivals have increased by nearly 60%.

### Overnight stays as a share of the resident population

Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from the National Statistics Institute.
Towards a new, more sustainable and competitive model

In light of the available indicators, it seems evident that there is room for improvement over the coming years. Regarding the environment, pollution levels have actually increased in recent years and the potential areas of improvement range from promoting more energy-efficient buildings and more modern air conditioning systems to more sustainable travel, among other aspects. In economic terms, there is no doubt regarding the importance of the sector for the Spanish economy as a whole, although it will be necessary to keep an eye on those destinations with high levels of congestion, where the sector’s economic contribution is modest. Finally, in socio-cultural terms there are some regions with an increasingly excessive tourism demand, which can make the resident populations uneasy due to congestion problems in small towns with limited public services, especially as they are not always prepared to absorb such a huge seasonal demand.

The sector’s agenda for sustainability involves implementing initiatives that pre-date COVID-19 and now make it possible to take advantage of funds from Europe.12 Specifically, the Spanish tourism industry is covered by the government’s Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan via the policy of «Modernisation and digitisation of the industrial fabric and SMEs, recovery of tourism and promotion of an entrepreneurial nation Spain», in which component 14 outlines a Modernisation and Competitiveness Plan for the Tourism Sector. Within the latter, the area that will receive the most investment is the Strategy for Sustainable Tourism at Destinations, which has an estimated budget of 1.9 billion euros for the next three years.13

• 12. At the beginning of 2019, the Spanish government and Secretary of State for Tourism had already begun work on Spain’s Sustainable Tourism Strategy 2030, which took into account the need to include sustainability criteria for the sector and began to introduce the objectives and criteria that, through the NGEU funds, have now been established in the new Strategy for Sustainable Tourism at Destinations.
• 13. The government held the first extraordinary call for Sustainability Plans in November 2021. 615 million euros were disbursed to the autonomous regions, taking into account economic variables (percentage of tourism GDP with respect to regional GDP and the reduction in the number of tourism workers between December 2019 and December 2020), regional variables (the size of the autonomous region as a percentage of the total area of Spain and population density) and tourism variables (number of international tourists received in 2019 and spending by these tourists).
The ultimate goal is none other than to try

to improve the competitiveness of Spain’s tourism industry by means of a new model with greater added value

The objective of these initiatives is not only to ensure that Spanish destinations are capable of integrating environmental, socio-economic and regional sustainability criteria into the tourism products and services they supply but also to develop resilience strategies in the face of current challenges (climate change, excessive demand for tourism, health and safety-related crises) and to achieve greater cohesion among the different regions. In other words, to improve the distribution of the burdens on the country and establish an integrated approach to help slow down its depopulation. The ultimate goal is none other than to try to improve the competitiveness of Spain’s tourism industry by means of a new model that is more sustainable, of higher quality and, therefore, of greater added value.

Monograficos
• Teresa Gil Pinheiro
• ## The use of water in agriculture: making progress in modernising irrigation and efficient water management

catalanspanish

## Agrifood sector in Portugal (part II): the challenges of the European Green Deal and the new Common Agricultural Policy

Teresa Gil Pinheiro
22 Feb 2022

26 Jan 2022

## Carbon prices: design and macroeconomic impact

17 Jan 2022

This winter’s drought has highlighted one of the most important challenges facing Spain’s agrifood sector: improving how water resources are used given the prospect of their availability becoming more limited.

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This winter’s drought has highlighted one of the most important challenges facing Spain’s agrifood sector: improving how water resources are used given the prospect of their availability becoming more limited. Climate change demands that huge efforts be made to adapt Spain’s irrigation system to the new circumstances and, in this respect, the investments made possible by the Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds will be a huge support. The main objective of these funds is to modernise irrigation systems and improve their governance, promoting water savings and energy efficiency through more efficient irrigation systems, self-consumption electricity generated from renewable energy sources, and the use of non-conventional water sources such as reclaimed waste water or desalinated water.

Water scarcity, a challenge for the world’s agriculture

Water is a crucial resource for agriculture. Globally, 72% of all freshwater extracted is used by the agricultural sector. Of the remainder, 12% is used by industry and to produce energy, while 16% is used directly for human consumption. The FAO estimates that, by 2050, agriculture will have to produce almost 50% more food, fibre and biofuel than in 2012 to meet global demand,11 a goal that will be difficult to achieve without increasing the area devoted to irrigation considering the higher yields produced: non-irrigated agriculture produces 60% of the world’s food and occupies 80% of cultivated land, while irrigated agriculture produces 40% on 20% of the land.

• 11. The FAO predicts an increase in demand for biofuel driven by the more limited use of fossil fuels, as well as an increase in food consumption in the face of a growing world population, increased urbanisation and a shift from a primarily starch-based diet to a growing demand for more water-intensive meat and dairy products as incomes rise in many countries. See the SOLAW Report «The State of Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture», FAO (2021).
Water is an essential commodity for agriculture. Climate change is making water a scarcer and more unpredictable resource.

More intensive agricultural practices are putting more stress on freshwater resources, further exacerbated by the consequences of climate change. In many regions of the world, including some in Spain (see the map below), the resource is subject to high levels of water stress.12 Furthermore, water stress levels are likely to increase in those areas that are currently under most stress as the effects of climate change intensify. In Spain, an overall larger reduction in water resources is expected in the south of the mainland and on the islands.13

• 12. Water stress is deemed to be «high» when, on average, more than 40% of the available water supply is extracted each year and when the demand for water is greater than the amount available during a certain period of time. Spain is one of 44 countries with «high» levels of water stress (World Resources Institute, 2019).
• 13. See «Evaluación del impacto del cambio climático en los recursos hídricos y sequías en España», CEDEX, 2017.
Integrated water management must make the achievement of environmental targets compatible with socio-economic goals.

This serious situation makes it essential to have a system of integrated planning and management of water resources that guarantees supply in sufficient quantity and quality, based on criteria of sustainability, adaptation to climate change and in line with the principles of the circular economy. Likewise, water management must promote compliance with the environmental targets set by the EU in the European Green Deal and the Water Framework Directive, as well as achieving the targets set by the United Nations 2030 Agenda in Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG6, Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all).

The importance of irrigation in Spain

In Spain, the agricultural sector accounts for 82.1% of water use (households use 12.8% and the remaining 5.1% is used for other economic activities).14 In fact, irrigation is a fundamental part of our agrifood system: the irrigated area in Spain accounted for 22.9% of the cultivated area in 2021 (7.8% of the total geographical area) but its production contributes slightly more than 50% of the final plant production. Without any doubt, irrigation is the fundamental pillar on which the production and export potential of the fruit and vegetable sector rests. In fact, Spain is the leading exporter of fruit and vegetables in the EU and one of the top three exporters in the world, along with China and the US, a prominent position that has given it the name of «the vegetable garden of Europe».

• 14. Data from the satellite water account (INE) for 2010, latest available data. Most of the water used by the agricultural sector is for irrigation. Water consumption by livestock is low. However, of great importance is the effect that the production and management of livestock waste can have on bodies of water.
Irrigation has undergone a continuous process of modernisation that is leading to the progressive expansion of efficient irrigation techniques.

The charts below show the considerable increase in irrigated land in Spain between 2004 and 2021, up by more than half a million hectares to 3.9 million hectares at present.15 During this period, however, water consumption by the agricultural sector has remained fairly stable (or has even tended to decrease slightly) thanks to a significant effort to modernise irrigation systems. In fact, over the years the area irrigated by localised (drip) systems, a much more efficient technique with a very low demand for water, has increased to the detriment of the gravity system, which consumes much more. Sprinkler systems, a method more typical of herbaceous crops, have also been implemented over the years.

• 15. This increase in irrigation has been accompanied by the development of hydraulic infrastructures such as reservoirs and water transfers, which are essential for the transport and control of water.

## The amount of irrigated land has increased considerably

Last actualization: 12 April 2022 - 12:27

## Breakdown of water used by farms by irrigation technique

Last actualization: 12 April 2022 - 12:29

This expansion of more efficient irrigation techniques reflects a coherence with the irrigation policies developed in recent years aimed at achieving sustainable, efficient agriculture. However, as already mentioned, the modernisation of irrigation has not been accompanied by aggregate savings in water as there is often a simultaneous intensification of crops, achieving a higher yield per m3 of water used but, on the other hand, the amount of irrigated water returned to bodies of water is reduced.16

By crop type, the largest areas being irrigated in 202117 were: grain cereals, which accounted for 24.1% of the total irrigated area, followed by olive groves (22.6%), non-citrus fruit trees (10.6%) and vines (10.3%). These three types of crops are the ones that have seen the greatest growth in irrigated area between 2004 and 2021, olive groves particularly, adding almost 400,000 hectares. On the other hand, if the irrigated area is analysed in the total of each of the crop groups, it can be observed that irrigation is the majority in some of them, such as citrus and vegetables (93.7% and 88.4%, respectively).

The irrigation technique used depends largely on the type of crop. Gravity irrigation is mainly used for cereals and forage crops, accounting for 45.0% and 53.4% of their respective irrigated crop areas. Sprinkler irrigation is mainly used for tubers (77.9%) and other herbaceous crops such as legumes, industrial plants and cereals. Finally, localised (drip) irrigation is the most common system for woody crops such as olive groves, vines and fruit trees, both citrus and non-citrus. The drip irrigation system is also important for vegetables (52.2%), including the area of land covered by greenhouses.

• 16. Irrigated water returned represents all water flows coming from irrigation and returning to rivers, groundwater, etc.
• 17. Data from «Encuesta sobre Superficies y Rendimientos de Cultivos» (ESYRCE, 2021) and «Análisis de los regadíos españoles, año 2020», both published by MAPA.
Notable regional differences in irrigation

The extent of irrigation, crop specialisation and irrigation techniques show a remarkable geographical diversity (see the table below). For example, in the northern regions, abundant rainfall makes irrigation unnecessary in many cases while the plateau, which is more water-deficient, has a moderate share of irrigation. The Community of Valencia and the Region of Murcia are the autonomous regions with the highest percentage of irrigated agricultural land (around 40%). As is widely known, they specialise in the production of fruit and vegetables, which tend to use drip irrigation techniques.

Andalusia is the second region with the highest percentage of irrigation as a proportion of its geographical area (12.9%), with a significant presence of drip-irrigated olive groves. In Castile and Leon, cereal production is dominated by sprinkler and self-propelled irrigation, while vines predominate in Castilla-La Mancha (51% of the region’s irrigated area is devoted to this crop) with drip irrigation. Gravity irrigation is mainly found in the irrigated lands of the Ebro basin (Catalonia, Aragon and Navarre) for herbaceous crops.

Irrigated crop yields are naturally higher than non-irrigated yields, with notable differences across different crop types and regions. Note that regional differences in yield can be considerable for certain crops, even between plots located in close proximity because yield can be affected by many other factors in addition to irrigation (plot orientation, environmental factors, fertilisers, etc.). For illustrative purposes, the following table shows the average irrigated and non-irrigated crop yields, measured as the number of kilograms produced per hectare for three crops that are representative and widespread in Spain: grapes for processing (wine), olives for milling (olive oil) and soft wheat.

Irrigated crop yields are higher than non-irrigated yields, with notable differences across different crop types and regions.
The NGEU funds: a fresh impetus for modernising irrigation

The Plan to improve efficiency and sustainability in irrigation (investment 1 of Component 3 of the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan, PRTR) establishes an investment of 563 million euros to modernise over 100,000 hectares of existing irrigated land.18 In 2021, around 260 million euros of this item had already been allocated, corresponding to the first phase of the irrigation modernisation programme implemented by the public corporation for agricultural infrastructure (Seiasa). The Plan prioritises those actions with a high impact on environmental sustainability or with an important innovative component, such as the incorporation of technologies and digital tools in irrigation communities to achieve more efficient irrigation.19 As for actions with a high environmental impact, priority is given to irrigation modernisation actions that include the generation of self-consumption of electricity from renewable energy sources; for instance by using water conduits to generate electricity, or actions that use non-conventional water sources such as reclaimed waste water or desalinated water.20

• 18. This amount rises to 704 million euros when the expected contributions from irrigation communities are included.
• 19. The Agroclimatic Information System for Irrigation (SiAR) provides information on the water demands of irrigated crops, helping to optimise the use of water resources.
• 20. See «Fomento de la reutilización de las aguas residuales - Informe complementario», MITECO, 2020.
NGEU funds prioritise irrigation modernisation schemes with greater environmental impact and incorporating the use of new technologies.

Modernising irrigation should help to comply with the EU Water Framework Directive as it contributes to the protection of surface water by reducing its extraction for irrigation. It can also help to meet the objectives of the Nitrates Directive21 and those of reducing soil contamination from phytosanitary products, since the implementation of sprinkler and drip irrigation systems enables fertilisers and phytosanitary products in the irrigation water to be added the dose strictly necessary and at the time the crop needs them. The use of reclaimed water, which already contains nutrients, would also help to reduce the amount of fertilisers used. All this would be in line with the EU policies that form part of the European Green Pact, such as the Farm to Fork strategy and the European strategy on adaptation to climate change.

The PRTR also has significant measures to encourage reforms, along with the investment plan. The government proposes to establish a National Irrigation Board, a Spain-wide governance mechanism that will enable all representatives of public authorities and affected sectors to promote and facilitate cooperation, consultation and the sharing of information on all aspects related to irrigation. An Irrigation Sustainability Observatory will also be set up to provide objective data on the economic, social and environmental impact of irrigation on the territory.22

In short, irrigation is essential for agricultural production, key to food security and a fundamental pillar of rural development. Its modernisation is crucial in order to achieve a competitive, profitable and water-efficient agricultural industry. Looking to the future, climate change scenarios for Spain predict that less water will be available (available water resources will decrease between 12% and 40% before the end of the century, depending on the region) and a more irregular distribution of rainfall, making it essential to continue improving the efficiency and sustainability of irrigation.

• 21. In December 2021, the European Commission decided to refer Spain to the CJEU for failing to take sufficient measures in relation to nitrate pollution from agricultural sources. Return flows from irrigation are considered to be the largest diffuse (non-point) contributors to surface and groundwater contamination.
• 22. On 9 March 2022, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food launched a public consultation on the draft royal decree to set up the board and observatory for irrigation.
Monograficos
• Enric Fernández
• Jordi Singla
• Roser Ferrer
• Ricard Murillo Gili
• Vânia Duarte
• Manel Pardo
• Enric Fernández
• Javier García Arenas
• Javier García Arenas
Ricard Murillo Gili
• Roser Ferrer
• Ricard Murillo Gili
• Vânia Duarte
• Vânia Duarte
• Ricard Murillo Gili
• Ricard Murillo Gili
• Ricard Murillo Gili
• Luís Pinheiro de Matos
• Luís Pinheiro de Matos
• Ricard Murillo Gili
• Ricard Murillo Gili
• Roser Ferrer
Ricard Murillo Gili
• Luís Pinheiro de Matos
• ## How the agrifood sector is becoming more sustainable

catalanspanish

12 Apr 2022

## Agrifood sector in Portugal (part II): the challenges of the European Green Deal and the new Common Agricultural Policy

Teresa Gil Pinheiro
22 Feb 2022

## Sustainability in tourism: make or break

26 Jan 2022

Climate change and the struggle to prevent it pose enormous challenges for agrifood production in Spain. In turn, improving the sustainability and resilience of the sector will be key to achieving the environmental targets set out in the European Green Deal. Agri-environmental indicators show that, despite some progress in recent years, the sector needs to tackle significant aspects, such as reducing the use of chemical pesticides, fertilisers and antimicrobials in agriculture, as well as improving animal health and welfare, increasing efficiency in the use of energy and water resources, promoting food consumption that is more sustainable and healthier and reducing food loss and waste, fostering a circular economy. The new CAP, with eco-schemes as its key measure, and the Next Generation EU funds will support the sector’s green and digital transition.

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The threat of climate change and transition to a sustainable food system

Spain’s agriculture has traditionally benefited from a privileged geographical location and climate but it is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Increased soil erosion, floods, droughts and wildfires, along with an increase in pests and diseases, are just some of the direct effects. In turn, primary sector activity also contributes to climate change: crop specialisation and intensification, the use of chemical inputs and the industrialisation of livestock production all have negative impacts on water, soil, air, biodiversity and habitat conservation.

Agriculture contributes to climate change and, in turn, suffers directly from its consequences

It must therefore move towards a new model that protects the natural resources on which it depends.

EU countries are increasingly aware that they need not only to mitigate climate change but also adapt to it. Consequently, given growing concerns for the environment, the agrifood sector must move forward in its transition from a system that emits greenhouse gases (GHG), demands a large amount of natural resources and also pollutes them, to a new model, increasingly widespread, that provides healthy, nutritious food sustainably, protecting the natural resources on which agricultural activity itself depends.

In addition to improving the sustainability of agrifood production and downstream distribution, another important lever for change is to promote healthier and more environmentally sustainable consumption patterns. For example, a diet with a larger proportion of vegetables, organic foods, seasonal and local produce. Similarly, the reduction of food loss and waste and promotion of the circular economy are also key factors in moving towards a sustainable food system, as stated in the European Commission’s «Farm to Fork» strategy.

#### The Farm to Fork strategy

Source: European Commission.
From the European Green Deal to the CAP Strategic Plans

The EU is deploying a wide range of tools to provide stakeholders with mechanisms and incentives to support this transition to a sustainable food system and, in turn, to help achieve the targets set out in the European Green Deal. One important addition in the reformed Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which will enter into force in January 2023, is the drafting of National Strategic Plans to establish priorities in terms of aid and incentives for the various production subsectors.6The star measure is eco-schemes, which are voluntary and reward sustainable practices. Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture has proposed two eco-schemes, with a budget of 1,107.49 million euros, which group sustainable practices into two areas: agroecology and low carbon agriculture. The first group includes activities such as pasture management using sustainable mowing, crop rotation and the maintenance of non-productive areas and other biodiversity aspects. The second group includes extensive grazing, conservation agriculture and the maintenance of living or dead vegetation cover.

• 6. Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food must submit its Strategic Plan to the European Commission by 30 December 2021.
The new CAP, with eco-schemes as its key measure,

together with Next Generation EU funds, will support the sector’s green and digital transition.

In addition to the CAP, the European NGEU funds will also help to finance the green and digital transition of the primary sector. In particular, item 3 of Spain’s Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan, aimed at the environmental and digital transformation of the agrifood and fisheries system, provides for an investment of 1,502.8 million euros. The plan is based on four fundamental pillars: (i) improving efficiency in irrigation, (ii) promoting sustainability and competitiveness in agriculture and livestock farming, (iii) a digitalisation strategy for the agrifood sector and the rural environment, and (iv) modernising the fisheries sector, by promoting sustainability, research, innovation and digitalisation.

Environmental indicators in the primary sector

The European Commission has analysed the situation of individual Member States in relation to their contribution to each of the Green Deal ambitions. The table below lists these targets and the reference values of these indicators for the main countries.7

To make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050, the first milestone has been set for 2030: reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 55% compared with the 1990 level. While GHG emissions from EU agriculture have fallen by a significant 20% since 1990, no progress has been made since 2005. And in Spain the situation has been reversed: emissions have increased since 1990 (6.5%) with just a modest reduction since 2005 (–3.7%).

• 7. «Commission recommendations to Member States as regards their strategic plans for the CAP», European Commission, December 2020.
In relative terms, GHG emissions by Spain’s agricultural sector

are lower than the EU average, which has set itself the target of at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030.

Despite this trend, it is important to note that, in relative terms, the sector is responsible for 12.0% of the economy’s total GHG emissions compared with an EU average of 12.7%. Furthermore, if we take into account the fact that the primary sector contributes 2.9% of GDP compared with 1.6% in the EU, the result is that GHG emissions by Spain’s agrifood sector per unit of GVA are significantly lower than the European average (1.2 kg/euro compared with 1.7 kg/euro in the EU).8 Similarly, emissions from agriculture per unit of agricultural land (tonnes of CO2 equivalent per hectare) are lower in Spain (1.6 compared with 2.5 in the EU).

The second EU milestone is contained in the Farm to Fork strategy, which sets a target of 50% reduction in the use and risk of chemical pesticides by 2030. In recent years, Spain has significantly reduced the use of this type of chemical and the challenge is to continue moving in this direction. The target for antimicrobial resistance is a 50% reduction of the overall antimicrobial sales for farm and aquaculture animals by 2030, compared with the EU baseline in 2018. In this respect, Spain lags behind the EU average.

On the other hand, Spain performs positively both in its share of agricultural land used for organic farming, an aspect we discuss in more detail in the next section, and the proportion of agricultural land occupied by highly diverse landscape features. In this case Spain, with 13.2% of its land, already exceeds the target of 10%.9

• 8. Data from the European Commission’s Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (CMEF) for the CAP 2014-2020, https://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/DataPortal/cmef_indicators.html
• 9. EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030.

#### European Green Deal targets and reference values

Notes: GHG stands for greenhouse gases. UAA stands for utilised agricultural area. Source: CaixaBank Research, based on the European Commission’s COM (2020) 846.

Nitrate pollution from agriculture remains one of the greatest pressures on the aquatic environment. In this respect, the EU has set a target of reducing nutrient losses by at least 50% by 2030 while ensuring there is no deterioration in soil fertility, an aspect in which Spain needs to improve considerably. An increasing number of EU countries are also affected by water scarcity, often caused by excessive abstraction of water for agriculture and livestock. Climate change will further aggravate the problem of water availability in many regions, including Spain.

Finally, the new CAP establishes digitalisation as a priority across the board, believing that the transition towards a sustainable food system must be supported by knowledge, innovation and digitalisation. In this respect, one key factor in developing rural areas and reversing their depopulation is the availability of a fast, reliable internet connection. While there has been a notable increase in the proportion of households in rural areas with next-generation broadband access, there is still a significant gap with respect to urban areas. The goal is to cover 100% of the population by 2025.10

• 10. This target is included in the Agenda España Digital 2025.
58.7% of Spanish households in rural areas

The green and digital transition of European agriculture is also creating new business opportunities which the sector must take advantage of, for example by better aligning its production with evolving consumer tastes. Sustainability will become a competitive advantage for those companies and farms that achieve a balance between economic growth, environmental care and social well-being, while those that fail to comply with environmental standards will be penalised by increasingly demanding and environmentally aware consumers who identify with the most sustainable brands and products.

A firm commitment to boosting organic production

The commitment to more sustainable production schemes, such as organic farming,11 is relentless. Spain, with more than 2.44 million hectares of these crops in 2020, is the first country in the EU and the third in the world after Australia and Argentina. However, in terms of its share of utilised agricultural area (UAA), it is above the EU average, as noted in the previous section, but well below leading countries such as Austria, Estonia and Sweden, which exceed 20%. Four million additional hectares would be needed to achieve the 25% target set in the Organic Action Plan.

• 11. Organic farming is a system of agrifood production and management that combines the best environmental practices, a high level of biodiversity and preservation of natural resources and the application of high animal welfare standards, so that products are obtained from natural substances and processes (MAPA).

## Share of utilised agricultural area under organic farming

Last actualization: 13 October 2021 - 16:38

Regarding organic operators,12 almost 90% out of a total of 50,047 in 2020 were primary producers while the rest were industrial operators and traders. However, the number of operators is growing much faster (more than double) further down the food chain.

• 12. An organic operator can be an individual or company and must meet certain requirements to be able to produce, process, prepare or package food of agricultural origin in order for it to be marketed using the terms ecological, biological or organic. In Spain there is a General Register of Organic Operators (REGOE) that collates the information provided by each autonomous region.

By region, Andalusia leads the field both in terms of land under organic farming, with more than 45% of the total, and in terms of organic livestock farms, with almost 60%. By type of crop, cereals for grain production come top (43% of the total) and, by type of livestock, cattle (48%). Compared with other countries, the Spanish agrifood sector is the world’s leading organic producer of olive oil and wine and the second for citrus fruits and vegetables.

However, one of the challenges facing organic production in Spain is the low domestic consumption: per capita consumption of these products in 2019 stood at 50.2 euros, a far cry from countries such as Denmark or Switzerland, which exceed 300 euros. As a result, most of Spain’s organic produce, around 60%, is exported.13 The change in habits brought about by the pandemic has boosted healthier, more sustainable and local consumption, so the trend in domestic consumption of organic produce is clearly upward.

• 13. Sociedad Española de Agricultura Ecológica (SEAE), MAPA (2021), «Análisis de la caracterización y proyección de la producción ecológica española en 2019» and Ecovalia (2021), «Informe anual de la producción ecológica en España».
Organic farming in Spain, on the rise

## Area under organic farming

Last actualization: 13 October 2021 - 16:38

## Organic operators in the primary sector (producers)

Last actualization: 13 October 2021 - 16:39

## Organic operators in the secondary sector (manufacturers and processors)

Last actualization: 13 October 2021 - 16:40
Monograficos

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## The benefits and costs of the energy mix of the future

Content available in
Manel Pardo
Research assistant
April 12th, 2019

For several years now, economic activity has grown faster than energy consumption thanks to technological improvements and the first steps being taken in the transition towards a new energy mix. What is more, this trend looks set to continue. According to projections by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), global GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 3.1% over the next 12 years, while primary energy consumption will do so at an average rate of 0.9% per annum. These figures illustrate the anticipated improvements in energy savings, which will have significant implications in advanced economies, since it is precisely in those economies that energy consumption per capita is at its greatest (see first chart).

The new energy mix (see the article «The energy mix of the future» in this same Dossier) will be more efficient – in the energy extraction process, less energy will be consumed and the negative effects caused by pollution will be reduced – due to the greater weight of renewables and natural gas, at the expense of coal, which is less efficient and more polluting. Energy efficiency will bring various economic benefits, such as savings on energy bills for consumers, although it will also reduce production in some economic sectors. Nevertheless, the net result is expected to be positive. For example, according to estimates by Roula-Inglesi Lotz,1 a 1-pp increase in the share of renewables in the energy mix at the global level generates a positive impact on GDP growth of 0.089%. If we take into account the projections of the EIA, the share of renewable energies will increase from the current 13% up to 16% by 2030. This growth of renewable energies could potentially boost global GDP in 2030 by 0.3%, providing an additional economic incentive to carry out this transition.

If we focus our analysis on the EU, the developed economic region in which energy is used the most efficiently, there have been set various energy targets for 2030. In order to make progress in creating the Energy Union and to fulfil the Paris agreement, in 2018 the European Council revised its climate and energy targets for 2030: to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40% compared to 1990 levels, increase the weight of renewable energies in energy consumption to 32% and improve energy efficiency by 32.5% compared to 2005 levels. The EU is making firm progress towards these goals, as it has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 22% since 1990, it has increased the weight of renewable energies to 17%, and energy efficiency has risen by around 15%.2 Thus, the EU is on track to meet both the emissions target and that related to achieving a greater role of renewable energies, although it will need to stretch itself further if it wants to achieve the efficiency target.

If the EU reaches the strategic objectives of the new energy plan for the year 2030, what will be the macroeconomic impact? According to a study conducted by the European Commission, the investment in technological improvements aimed at increasing energy efficiency in order to achieve the targets set will have a very noticeable impact. In particular, if these objectives are achieved, it estimates that GDP in 2030 will be 1.3% higher than in a scenario with no changes in the energy mix. It also stresses that this transition must be gradual and be accompanied by flexible regulations that take into account the various players and economic sectors in order to avoid causing unwanted disruption in the market, as well as to allow both technology and human capital to adapt to the new environment.

What lies behind this figure? The positive impact on GDP will be generated, in part, by making use of resources that currently lie unused, such as by creating new jobs. In addition, consumers’ disposable income will increase as they will use a smaller proportion of their income to cover their energy consumption, thus allowing them to spend more on other products and services. Therefore, it is estimated that some 700,000 new jobs in net terms could ultimately be generated in 2030, which is no small amount.3

Despite the fact that the improvements in energy efficiency will have a positive impact on Europe’s production and labour market, the effects will most likely be highly disparate between different sectors of the economy. On the one hand, the utilities (water, electricity, etc.) and extraction sectors will see a reduction in output because there will be less demand for their products.4 On the other hand, sectors such as construction and engineering will benefit from investment in energy efficiency and will see an increase in their production. As a whole, the sectors that will benefit play a larger role in the European economy than those that will suffer, so the impact on aggregate income will be positive. The employment results at the sectorial level, meanwhile, will follow a similar pattern to that of production, albeit with one slight difference:5 the utilities sector is likely to end up employing more workers despite the drop in its production. This is because this sector plays a bigger role in Europe’s new energy mix within the field of renewable energies, which are relatively more labour-intensive than other energy sources.6

With regard to the trade balance, with the new energy mix, and thanks to the greater role of renewable energy sources, the EU will become less dependent on imports, especially oil and natural gas. This will allow it to improve its energy security (see article «The geopolitics of energy» in this Dossier for details), making it less vulnerable to the significant volatility in fossil fuel prices. By way of example, it is estimated that between 2018 and 2030, the new energy mix and improvements in energy efficiency achieved by EU countries will reduce the cost of fuel imports by between 175 and 320 billion euros each year. This is a considerable figure if we consider that, in 2017, 260 billion were spent on fuel imports.7

In short, in the 19th century and much of the 20th century, coal was the main source of energy. In the 20th century, and with the revolution in land transport following the invention of the car, oil gained importance until it became a key factor, capable of triggering economic turmoil like the crises in the 1970s and 1980s. The 21st century will be the century of natural gas and renewables. The change in the energy mix and th technological improvements that drive energy efficiency are a positive factor for the environment, but, in addition to that, there are also economic incentives to push for this transition. For this reason, it will be essential that countries live up to their commitments and continue to develop policies that promote a more sustainable pattern of economic growth.

Manel Pardo Fernández

1. See Roula-Inglesi Lotz (2016). «The impact of renewable energy consumption to economic growth: A panel data application». Energy Economics, 53, 58-63.

2. According to the latest data from the European Commission collected in 2016.

3. This takes into account the possible loss of jobs in the energy sector caused by the improvements in energy efficiency. See the article «Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 2012/27/EU on Energy Efficiency» by the European Commission 2016.

4. All in all, both revenues and production costs in this sector will be reduced, resulting in an ambiguous effect on business profits.

5. Other studies, such as the study «How Many Jobs?» undertaken in 2012 by the authors R. Janssen and D. Staniaszek in The Energy Efficiency Industrial Forum, show that every 1 million euros invested in improving energy efficiency in buildings allows 19 direct jobs to be created in the construction sector.

6. See the article «The macro-level and sectoral impacts of Energy Efficiency policies» by the European Commission 2017.

7. These estimates are highly sensitive to the evolution of the oil price.

Manel Pardo
Research assistant
Etiquetas
Long-term trends

## Climate change & green transition

What polices can be implemented to stop climate change? What are the implications of shifting towards a more sustainable economy?