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After the strong recovery undergone by the tourism sector last summer, the activity indicators published up to December showed no signs of slowing down. Demand, supply and prices all maintained the good performance observed in the summer and even continued to improve, further closing the gap with their pre-COVID levels. However, this positive trend has had to contend with another wave of COVID infections.
Spain’s tourism sector enjoyed rapid growth in 2024 and has support factors to continue expanding in 2025. These include the economic growth of the main source countries and the sector’s price competitiveness, as it continues to seek a reduction in its seasonality to avoid congestion during the peak season and increase the utilisation of the installed capacity. The good performance of the tourism sector will be key in ensuring that catering continues to enjoy its current level of buoyancy.
The Spanish economy is facing the first half of 2026 from a position of strength, albeit with a clear moderation in growth following the strong dynamism of 2025 and amid a more adverse international context. The outbreak of the war in Iran has introduced a new supply shock that is affecting sectors unevenly, with a bigger impact on industry while domestically-oriented services are showing greater resilience. Despite this, the strength of domestic demand and progress made in modernising the productive base are allowing the impact to be absorbed without any significant deterioration of the cycle. In this issue, we analyse the main geopolitical and sectoral risks, the vulnerability of supply chains, and the role of entrepreneurship and investment in intangible assets as key pillars of resilience and medium-term growth.
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Banking union in the euro area
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Energy in the 21ST century
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The deleveraging of households and firms
The COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting economic activity and the real estate sector is also feeling the effects, albeit not as much as other sectors. Specifically, at CaixaBank Research we expect GDP to fall by between 13% and 15% in 2020 and not to return to pre-crisis levels until the end of 2023. However, despite the seriousness of the situation and the high uncertainty regarding how the pandemic will develop, it is important to note that the sector is supported by a much stronger foundation than in the previous crisis of 2008.
The impact of the crisis on the sector has therefore been limited and much less than initially expected, and activity in the residential market is recovering reasonably well from last year’s extraordinary downturn .
The rapid growth of Spain’s real estate sector during the first half of the year has led us to revise upwards our forecasts for 2024 and 2025. Even so, the mismatch between supply and demand will determine the sector’s behaviour, as it tackles major challenges such as climate change and the housing affordability problems for the young and the most vulnerable segments of society.
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Hawkish comments by officials from the ECB and the US Federal Reserve were the main drivers for investor sentiment in the last session of the week. In the euro area, Pierre Wunsch urged the ECB to speed up the reduction of its balance sheet and to stop reinvesting the maturing bonds while Joachim Nagel called for further interest rate hikes.
The global economic outlook centered the stage in yesterday’s session as investors focused on July’s flash PMIs. In the euro area, the soft growth momentum was visible in the fall of the services (51.1) and manufacturing (42.7) indices. In the US, the manufacturing PMI rose and got closer to the 50-point threshold, but the services PMI lost steam.
Despite the effects of the prolonged drought and the sharp rise in production costs, the current trend in Spain’s agrifood sector is one of moderate growth and its exports have managed to remain competitive and dynamic. Moreover, rural tourism is proving to be a good complement to agricultural activity, diversifying the sources of income for farms, which must nevertheless continue working to become more competitive and efficient in their use of resources.