Dossier
The threat of the illiberal shift
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https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/monthly-report/441/january-2020/threat-illiberal-shift
Dossier
The free trade and investment treaty between the EU and the US
The industry suffered a severe setback in 2020 but the data reveal a rapid recovery, awaiting the impact of European funds and with the automotive industry as a benchmark and driver of technological transformation.
The vaccination of the population at risk, the containment of any further outbreaks and the implementation of the Digital Green Certificate will be key factors in tourism improving its performance significantly during the second half of 2021.
Dossier
The tech goods boom: change of trend or summer love?
Dossier
Education: more crucial than ever
Dossier
The time of cities
Dossier
The new environment for banking
In the first issue of 2025, we stop to take a snapshot of foreign demand for housing, international business tourism and the savings of Spanish households according to their demographic and income profile. We continue to analyse the European economy’s exposure to US tariff hikes, this time from the perspective of value chains, and we also assess the challenges for European fiscal policy following the entry into force of the new economic governance framework.
October is the month in which we present the update of our economic forecast scenario. Broadly speaking, the world economy is moving at a higher cruising speed than had been anticipated at the beginning of the year, and the buoyancy of the Spanish economy leads us to revise our growth forecast for 2025 upwards. In addition, in this issue we analyse how Trump 2.0 policies could favour investment flows into the euro area, as well as the relationship between firm size and productivity gaps in the European Union. We also review the recovery of Europe’s tourism sector following the pandemic, we take stock of the summer season for Spain’s tourism sector and we identify which autonomous communities could be the most affected by the US tariff hikes.
In this summer edition of the Monthly Report, we continue to focus on how the agreement between the US and Iran is reshaping the global economic outlook, although its fragile nature keeps uncertainty high. In the international arena, we analyse Kevin Warsh's appointment as Chair of the Federal Reserve and how European inflation has responded to the energy shock, with a clear direct impact but still contained indirect effects. We also examine the reform and investment needs identified in the European Semester in light of the end of the NGEU funds. In Spain, where the economy still has strengths to continue growing at a dynamic pace, we take a closer look at the unemployment rate, and we use high-frequency data to examine dining consumption habits and the effects of climate change on the loyalty of international tourists.
De-risking, decoupling, fracturing, reshoring, nearshoring, friendshoring... understanding the new era of globalisation
As we emerged from the summer, we found an economy in the midst of a slowdown compared to the significant growth rates recorded in the first half of 2023. In this article we present our outlook.
The concerning budget deficit and rising public debt call into question the new administration’s ability to implement the fiscal proposals promised during the campaign.