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Spain is facing 2026 with funding needs that remain high, albeit in a relatively more favourable fiscal context than its main European peers. Despite the reduction of the deficit and public debt as a percentage of GDP, the high nominal levels and a volume of maturities similar to that of 2025 mean that funding needs remain at levels comparable to those of recent years. In this context, the strength of demand for public debt – especially among non-resident investors – allows us to anticipate an orderly absorption of the issuance volume.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/financial-markets/treasury-funding-needs-2026-high-manageable-thanks-strong

In mid-2020 the Chinese government announced a series of strict rules on access to credit in the real estate sector, which had historically followed a growth model based on high leverage. However, these measures not only managed to limit debt in the sector, but also exposed its vulnerabilities. In this article, we look at the biggest risks of this strategy.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/chinas-real-estate-sector-part-ii-emergency-landing-or-low-altitude

Taking advantage of the upcoming year end, we have prepared our traditional Dossier analysing the trends and key elements that will determine the behaviour of the economy in 2026. First, we analyse the resilience of the global economy to the tariff storm and the challenges it faces in a future that will continue to be marked by geopolitics, precisely one year after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. In the second article, we address the European challenge of reducing public debt amid the need to invest in defence, innovation and the green and digital transition. Next, we focus specifically on the outlook for the US economy, which is facing the new year with a mix of strength and vulnerability. Finally, we quantify the forecasts for the Spanish economy, which has shown better-than-expected dynamism in recent quarters in an adverse international context.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/monthly-report/505/november-2025/2026-outlook

José Ramon is Head of International Economics & Markets at CaixaBank Research. He has a Master's degree in Financial Markets from ICADE, a Bachelor's degree in Economic Sciences specialising in Economic Analysis and Quantitative Economics from the Complutense University (Madrid), and a Senior Management Programme from IE Business School to his name. Prior to joining CaixaBank, he worked as chief economist at Bankia and Caja Madrid. He has more than 30 years of experience in various fields related to macroeconomic analysis: monetary policy, country risk, the financial system, etc. During that time, he has combined his work as an economic and financial analyst with teaching positions at various institutions: CEU, ICADE, the Business Institute (Instituto de Empresa), etc. He is currently also a professor of Economic Structure at CUNEF.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/author/jose-ramon-diez

Eduard is a data scientist in the Spanish Economics Department. He holds a degree in Physics from the University of Barcelona and a Master’s degree in Intelligent Interactive Systems from Pompeu Fabra University, in which he put into practice artificial intelligence applications, machine learning models and big data techniques. He is part of the first edition of CaixaBank’s Data Talent programme.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/author/eduard-alcobe-garcia

Catalina is a Research Assistant in the Department of Spanish Economics. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Buenos Aires and a Master's degree in Economics and Finance from the Barcelona School of Economics. Before joining CaixaBank, she worked at J.P. Morgan & Chase as a Trade Lifecycle Analyst and at Accenture as a Deal Structuring & Pricing Senior Analyst.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/author/catalina-becu