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The November activity indicators point to a very positive Q4 for the Spanish economy, while inflation stabilises at still somewhat high levels and the house price rally shows no sign of easing. The current account surplus is reduced by the strength of imports, as is the public deficit compared to last year.

The strong performance of the Spanish economy in 2025 is mainly explained by the vigour of domestic demand, driven by a dynamic labour market, the decline in interest rates, migration flows and European funds. These factors have more than offset the negative impact of the tariff hikes imposed on our goods exports to the US.

The Spanish economy continues to advance at a dynamic pace. For several years now, it has maintained relatively high growth, both from a historical perspective and in comparison with most developed economies.

The economic impact of the war with Iran is yet to be written. If a deal is reached in the short term and the movement of goods through the Strait of Hormuz resumes relatively quickly, the macroeconomic effect could be limited. Amid the recent emphasis on the downside risks, it is important not to lose sight of this scenario. Not only is it plausible, but it could be the most likely.

At the end of April, the government submitted to the European Commission the 2026 Annual Progress Report (APR), the document which tracks progress against the 2025-2028 fiscal and structural plan to which it committed with Brussels. In this article, we analyse the state of the public finances based on the report.

The slowdown that is beginning to appear in the indicators is incorporated into the new CaixaBank Research forecasts, detailed in the following pages of this Monthly Report. Broadly speaking, the scenario anticipates positive activity growth, albeit more restrained between the second and third quarters of the year. Energy prices are expected to moderate by the end of 2026, according to oil and gas futures markets, which should lead to a slight re-acceleration of growth. 

The most visible and immediate effect of the conflict has been on inflation, while the labour market shows a slower response to the shocks. The only area where the conflict has had a positive impact from a macroeconomic perspective is the tourism sector.