The outlook for the Spanish economy as a whole is highly dependent on the trends in inflationary pressures, especially those related to energy. The primary sector was already suffering from rising production costs and the war in Ukraine has merely aggravated the situation.
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The Spanish economy has a diverse, export-oriented and highly productive manufacturing sector. However, the business fabric is still highly fragmented compared to German industry, a European benchmark. Increasing company size and the productivity of companies, through investment in R&D and adopting new digital technologies, and moving towards Industry 4.0 are key in the increasing competitiveness of a fundamental sector for the economy and for the Spanish foreign sector. The sector must also evolve towards a more sustainable industrial model: only companies that successfully undertake the energy transition will be able to compete in a new environment in which sustainability will be a prerequisite for continuing to operate in the market.
Desde 2022, la restauración en España vive una fuerte reactivación gracias al auge turístico y a la recuperación pospandemia. Sin embargo, aunque los ingresos prácticamente duplican los niveles previos a la crisis sanitaria y el empleo en el sector ha alcanzado cifras récord, persiste un reto estructural: cada año, 1 de cada 10 empresas del sector entra o sale del mercado. El análisis regional y la comparación con la UE confirman que la elevada rotación empresarial responde, entre otros factores, a la alta densidad de locales, al reducido tamaño de las empresas y a un menor grado de profesionalización, lo que se traduce en ingresos por empleado significativamente inferiores.
Spain has experienced a sustained increase in business entrepreneurship in recent years, reaching its highest level since 2012. However, business creation remains below the European average and significant structural challenges persist: a high early failure rate among new businesses, a strong geographical concentration of entrepreneurship and a limited focus on high value-added sectors. Despite these weaknesses, encouraging signs are emerging in sectors linked to digitalisation and the Economy 4.0. The major challenge lies in harnessing this dynamism to ensure that more projects survive, consolidate, and are directed towards higher-productivity sectors, so that all this can translate into more solid, balanced, and lasting economic growth.
Spain’s manufacturing sector has overcome a 2022 that was hit hard by the energy crisis and supply problems regarding some raw materials, preventing manufacturers from getting back to their pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, although the economic situation is still significantly uncertain, the outlook is somewhat more favourable than a few months ago: having weathered the more adverse scenarios observed during the winter, the economy continues to show positive signs thanks to the stabilisation of energy markets and the resilience of Spain’s labour market and household consumption.
The vaccination of the population at risk, the containment of any further outbreaks and the implementation of the Digital Green Certificate will be key factors in tourism improving its performance significantly during the second half of 2021.
The pandemic has altered the commercial real estate investment landscape, creating different types of assets according to the degree of disruption caused by the travel restrictions imposed to tackle the health crisis. Assets that have benefited include residential property, logistics assets and data centres, as well as a large proportion of retail assets. Among the most disadvantaged are offices and hotel assets, weighed down by the rise in teleworking and slump in international tourism.
The problem of housing affordability, both rental and ownership, has worsened in recent years and is particularly affecting certain groups such as young people. Solving this issue is no easy task and requires action to be taken on multiple fronts and over an extended time horizon. Public-private collaboration is essential for boosting the supply of affordable housing, and industrialised construction shows promise as a new way to help overcome the major challenges that the sector is facing, such as attracting skilled and female labour, while promoting more digital and sustainable construction methods.
The European real estate market has seen several years of strong growth. In fact, since early 2016, house prices in the EU have risen by 4.6% year-on-year on average, outperforming wages and GDP growth. This upward trend has been widespread across countries and also large cities. This article examines the factors underpinning this trend and whether it poses any risks.
The resilience of the Spanish economy in recent years has been underpinned by both quantitative (strong job creation) and qualitative (more stable employment) improvements in the labour market. Firstly, there has been a fall in temporary employment, a factor that has traditionally fuelled job insecurity and social inequalities and held back investment in human capital, constraining the economy's growth potential; secondly, in some key sectors of our economy this has been accompanied by an improvement in productivity. However, the incipient improvement in overall productivity that has been observed is not widespread across all sectors.
The agrifood sector has continued to perform well since the most critical months of the pandemic. Primary sector production remains at a high level, the food industry is recovering from the slump experienced in 2020 and demand indicators suggest food consumption patterns are gradually getting back to normal, both in and outside the home. Agrifood exports are also booming, a lever of growth that will continue to be vital for the sector’s future.
Foreign demand has been one of the factors supporting Spain's real estate sector throughout its recovery. House purchases by foreigners have tripled in just 10 years, reaching the substantial figure of 65,300 homes in 2018, 12.6% of the total. This article looks at the foreign demand for housing in Spain as well as factors that will affect the trend over the coming quarters.
Although manufacturing is not among the sectors hardest hit by the crisis, the COVID-19 shock occurred within a context of a prolonged weakness in the sector, not only in Spain but in Europe as a whole. After the initial harsh adjustment, brief and uneven across the various branches of activity, the sector quickly picked up again, approaching its pre-pandemic levels of activity and employment. The outlook for 2021 and 2022 is favourable, driven especially by exports and the investments made via the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (RTRP). Recent disruptions in global supply chains, caused by global transportation bottlenecks and component shortages, will have a limited, temporary impact.
The current crisis is triggering changes in many aspects of our lives, a large number of them related to our residential preferences. For example, working from home can transform how and where we live. The pandemic has also boosted the digitisation of the real estate sector and could speed up certain changes in other areas such as house modernisation, supporting the transition to a more sustainable economy.
Spain’s real estate market is slowing down but at a more moderate pace than predicted in the scenario published in last December’s Real Estate Sector Report.
The tourism sector is reaching high levels of utilisation of its productive capacity, so we can expect the pace of growth to gradually moderate. However, Spain’s economy has other levers at its disposal.
At the end of April, the government submitted to the European Commission the 2026 Annual Progress Report (APR), the document which tracks progress against the 2025-2028 fiscal and structural plan to which it committed with Brussels. In this article, we analyse the state of the public finances based on the report.