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In recent quarters, the global economy has shown remarkable resilience and we estimate that it could have grown by around 3.0% in 2023. With this starting point, we explain the latest revision to our global economic forecast scenario and the outlook for monetary policy.

Five months after the last update to our macroeconomic forecast scenario, we have incorporated newly available information and re-examined the main factors dominating the outlook for Spain’s economy.

Like all forecasts, our scenario is subject to uncertainty. For this reason, we present growth intervals with their respective associated probabilities. Nevertheless, we can state with a high degree of confidence that the Spanish economy will continue to grow at a steady pace next year.

How has the demand for technological goods in Spain evolved? We analyse what has happened according to different sociodemographic segments through the use of duly anonymised internal CaixaBank data.

As we approach 2026, the global economy is once again demonstrating greater-than-expected resilience to uncertainty and geopolitical noise. However, growth and welfare will depend on how the division between economic blocs, the rise of artificial intelligence and fiscal challenges are managed, in a context of transition and increasing complexity.

CaixaBank Research forecasts growth of 1.4% for 2024, but this year we are pointing out the risks to the upside. The good growth data for Q4 2023 and the improvement in the outlook for household consumption will lead us to revise our growth forecast and place it close to 2.0%.

While in December 2022 our GDP growth forecast for 2023 was 1%, finally the Spanish economy has managed to grow by an impressive 2.5%, in spite of the geopolitical uncertainty, persistent high inflation (despite its decline in recent months) and rising interest rates.

Preliminary GDP data published by the National Statistics Institute indicate a notable acceleration in growth in the final quarter of 2023, with an increase of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and 2.2% year-on-year in Q4. 

In an environment marked by geopolitical uncertainty, high interest rates and cooling global demand, the major advanced economies ended 2023 more resilient than had been anticipated a few quarters ago,

The US economy is facing 2026 with a mix of strength and vulnerability. The resilience demonstrated in 2025 has exceeded expectations, and investment in AI, the fiscal stimulus and new rate cuts predict another year of strong growth. Nevertheless, the picture is not free from risks.

The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in Spanish firms has accelerated in recent years, but the process has been uneven and remains incomplete. This article analyses the extent of AI penetration considering four key dimensions: company size, sectoral differences, specific uses within organisations and the main barriers hindering its deployment, as well as a comparison with the rest of Europe. Understanding how and where AI is being incorporated is particularly important from a business and macroeconomic perspective, as its adoption influences efficiency and productivity gains and can widen gaps between firms, sectors and workers in a productive fabric like Spain’s, which is dominated by SMEs and microenterprises.